Daily Papers

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

We present a comprehensive numerical study of a six-state clock model with a long-range dipolar type interaction. This model is motivated by the ferroelectric orders in the multiferroic hexagonal manganites. At low temperatures, trimerization of local atomic structures leads to six distinct but energetically degenerate structural distortion, which can be modeled by a six-state clock model. Moreover, the atomic displacements in the trimerized state further produce a local electric polarization whose sign depends on whether the clock variable is even or odd. These induced electric dipoles, which can be modeled by emergent Ising degrees of freedom, interact with each other via long-range dipolar interactions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to investigate low temperature phases resulting from the competing interactions. Upon lowering temperature, the system undergoes two Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) transitions, characteristic of the standard six-state clock model in two dimensions. The dipolar interaction between emergent Ising spins induces a first-order transition into a ground state characterized by a three-fold degenerate stripe order. The intermediate phase between the discontinuous and the second BKT transition corresponds to a maze-like hexagonal liquid with short-range stripe ordering. Moreover, this intermediate phase also exhibits an unusual ferromagnetic order with two adjacent clock variables occupying the two types of stripes of the labyrinthine pattern.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

We prepared Na_xTO_2 (T = Mn, Co) nanostructures to use as cathode material in Na-ion batteries. The Rietveld refinement of x-ray diffraction data confirms the hexagonal symmetry. Scanning and transmission electron microscopy measurements show hexagonal and rod-shape morphology for T = Co and Mn, respectively. The magnetic measurements indicate the presence of variable oxidation states of Mn/Co ions, but no long range ordering till 5~K. We find that the Na_{0.6}MnO_2 is highly insulating whereas Na_{0.7}CoO_2 is semiconducting in nature. The conduction in Na_{0.7}CoO_2 takes place through both variable range hopping (VRH) as well as activation mechanisms in different temperature ranges. However, for Na_{0.6}MnO_2 the VRH prevails at elevated temperatures. Furthermore, the coin cells have been fabricated and tested the electrochemical behavior using cyclic voltammetry, which confirms the reversibility of Na--ions during intercalation/de-intercalation.

We present a simple meta quantization approach that quantizes different layers of a large language model (LLM) at different bit levels, and is independent of the underlying quantization technique. Specifically, we quantize the most important layers to higher bit precision and less important layers to lower bits. We propose two effective strategies to measure the importance of layers within LLMs: the first measures the importance of a layer based on how different its output embeddings are from the input embeddings (higher is better); the second estimates the importance of a layer using the number of layer weights that are much larger than average (smaller is better). We show that quantizing different layers at varying bits according to our importance scores results in minimal performance drop with a far more compressed model size. Finally, we present several practical key takeaways from our variable layer-wise quantization experiments: (a) LLM performance under variable quantization remains close to the original model until 25-50% of layers are moved in lower quantization using our proposed ordering but only until 5-10% if moved using no specific ordering; (b) Adding layer importance to inherently dynamic quantization techniques can further improve their performance, showing that our approach is complementary to other dynamic quantization methods; (c) Quantizing LLMs to lower bits performs substantially better than pruning unless extreme quantization (2-bit) is used; and (d) Layer-wise quantization to lower bits works better in the case of larger LLMs with more layers compared to smaller LLMs with fewer layers. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/RazvanDu/LayerwiseQuant/.

Closed-loop human-AI systems generate high-dimensional behavioural trajectories whose collective dynamics remain obscure. Using 297,915 learners' adaptive-tutoring histories, we define semantic order variables before model fitting and test them in user-disjoint cohorts. The state exhibits reproducible basin-like flow and operationally defined, state-heterogeneous metastable-like kinetics. A construction-matched null distinguishes normalised-memory relaxation from a reproducible excess field. A four-term conditional mechanism recovers population drift (r = 0.946; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.935-0.955). Predictive event-level self-supervised learning recovers the state and learned-plane flow; null-referenced corrections retain directional, partial-amplitude excess-field structure without full calibration. Shuffled-order training reverses learned-plane flow on ordered trajectories; support-alignment randomisation selectively reduces inward transport. Both axes remain linearly accessible without state supervision. Without cross-model fitting, the models share leading population drift (r = 0.866; learner-bootstrap 95% CI, 0.857-0.875) and persistence ordering; residual directions remain model-specific. These results identify an externally anchored leading-order effective field linking empirical dynamics, an interpretable mechanism and neural computation.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Variable-order Markov models generate sequences over a finite alphabet by conditioning each symbol on the longest available suffix of the generated history. Regular constraints, by contrast, describe finite-horizon control requirements by an automaton: fixed positions, forced endings, metrical patterns, and forbidden copied fragments are all special cases. Existing exact methods already handle regular constraints with belief propagation for first-order Markov chains. The contribution here is the variable-order extension: identifying the state space on which the existing BP-regular machinery must be run when the generator is a variable-order/backoff model. A first-order constraint layer can enforce useful support conditions, but it computes future mass after merging histories that a variable-order generator deliberately keeps distinct. We formalize this mismatch and give the sparse construction obtained by replacing the first-order Markov state with the observed context state, then taking the standard product with the regular constraint automaton. For a fixed trained context graph and automaton, inference is linear in the sequence horizon; in general it is polynomial in the number of reachable product edges. This gives the correct variable-order distribution conditioned on regular constraints without expanding to all K-tuples. The same finite-source interface supports reversible data augmentation by inverse count lookup, matching materialized transposition augmentation without storing transformed corpora. We also separate exact BP inference from generation-time backoff policies, such as singleton avoidance, whose stochastic semantics must be made explicit if exactness is claimed.

There has been a surge of interest in language model agents that can navigate virtual environments such as the web or desktop. To navigate such environments, agents benefit from information on the various elements (e.g., buttons, text, or images) present. It remains unclear which element attributes have the greatest impact on agent performance, especially in environments that only provide a graphical representation (i.e., pixels). Here we find that the ordering in which elements are presented to the language model is surprisingly impactful--randomizing element ordering in a webpage degrades agent performance comparably to removing all visible text from an agent's state representation. While a webpage provides a hierarchical ordering of elements, there is no such ordering when parsing elements directly from pixels. Moreover, as tasks become more challenging and models more sophisticated, our experiments suggest that the impact of ordering increases. Finding an effective ordering is non-trivial. We investigate the impact of various element ordering methods in web and desktop environments. We find that dimensionality reduction provides a viable ordering for pixel-only environments. We train a UI element detection model to derive elements from pixels and apply our findings to an agent benchmark--OmniACT--where we only have access to pixels. Our method completes more than two times as many tasks on average relative to the previous state-of-the-art.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Macro placement is a fundamental step in modern chip physical design, playing a crucial role in determining the solution quality of high-dimensional combinatorial optimization problems. Despite recent advancements in machine learning for spatial coordinate determination, the temporal dimension of placement sequencing remains largely governed by static heuristics. In this work, we demonstrate that the placement sequence is not merely a preprocessing step but a decisive factor in optimization, where suboptimal early decisions trigger irreversible domino effects that constrain the solution space. To harness this unexplored dimension, we propose OrderPlace, a proxy-guided LLM evolution framework for automatically discovering macro placement order strategies. Instead of relying on manually crafted heuristics such as area- or connectivity-based ordering, OrderPlace explores a broader space of code-level policies, ranging from static scoring metrics to dynamic physics-inspired mechanisms. To mitigate the prohibitive cost of evaluating sequences, we introduce a lightweight proxy evaluation mechanism that efficiently filters candidates using a deterministic greedy probe. Experimental results on the standard ISPD 2005 benchmarks demonstrate that OrderPlace discovers novel ordering strategies. Compared with WireMask-EA and the state-of-the-art method EGPlace, OrderPlace reduces wirelength by 34.04\% and 14.08\%, respectively.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

Variable names are critical for conveying intended program behavior. Machine learning-based program analysis methods use variable name representations for a wide range of tasks, such as suggesting new variable names and bug detection. Ideally, such methods could capture semantic relationships between names beyond syntactic similarity, e.g., the fact that the names average and mean are similar. Unfortunately, previous work has found that even the best of previous representation approaches primarily capture relatedness (whether two variables are linked at all), rather than similarity (whether they actually have the same meaning). We propose VarCLR, a new approach for learning semantic representations of variable names that effectively captures variable similarity in this stricter sense. We observe that this problem is an excellent fit for contrastive learning, which aims to minimize the distance between explicitly similar inputs, while maximizing the distance between dissimilar inputs. This requires labeled training data, and thus we construct a novel, weakly-supervised variable renaming dataset mined from GitHub edits. We show that VarCLR enables the effective application of sophisticated, general-purpose language models like BERT, to variable name representation and thus also to related downstream tasks like variable name similarity search or spelling correction. VarCLR produces models that significantly outperform the state-of-the-art on IdBench, an existing benchmark that explicitly captures variable similarity (as distinct from relatedness). Finally, we contribute a release of all data, code, and pre-trained models, aiming to provide a drop-in replacement for variable representations used in either existing or future program analyses that rely on variable names.

Autoregressive patch-based image generation has recently shown competitive results in terms of image quality and scalability. It can also be easily integrated and scaled within Vision-Language models. Nevertheless, autoregressive models require a defined order for patch generation. While a natural order based on the dictation of the words makes sense for text generation, there is no inherent generation order that exists for image generation. Traditionally, a raster-scan order (from top-left to bottom-right) guides autoregressive image generation models. In this paper, we argue that this order is suboptimal, as it fails to respect the causality of the image content: for instance, when conditioned on a visual description of a sunset, an autoregressive model may generate clouds before the sun, even though the color of clouds should depend on the color of the sun and not the inverse. In this work, we show that first by training a model to generate patches in any-given-order, we can infer both the content and the location (order) of each patch during generation. Secondly, we use these extracted orders to finetune the any-given-order model to produce better-quality images. Through our experiments, we show on two datasets that this new generation method produces better images than the traditional raster-scan approach, with similar training costs and no extra annotations.

Inspired by human learning, researchers have proposed ordering examples during training based on their difficulty. Both curriculum learning, exposing a network to easier examples early in training, and anti-curriculum learning, showing the most difficult examples first, have been suggested as improvements to the standard i.i.d. training. In this work, we set out to investigate the relative benefits of ordered learning. We first investigate the implicit curricula resulting from architectural and optimization bias and find that samples are learned in a highly consistent order. Next, to quantify the benefit of explicit curricula, we conduct extensive experiments over thousands of orderings spanning three kinds of learning: curriculum, anti-curriculum, and random-curriculum -- in which the size of the training dataset is dynamically increased over time, but the examples are randomly ordered. We find that for standard benchmark datasets, curricula have only marginal benefits, and that randomly ordered samples perform as well or better than curricula and anti-curricula, suggesting that any benefit is entirely due to the dynamic training set size. Inspired by common use cases of curriculum learning in practice, we investigate the role of limited training time budget and noisy data in the success of curriculum learning. Our experiments demonstrate that curriculum, but not anti-curriculum can indeed improve the performance either with limited training time budget or in existence of noisy data.

We consider the challenging task of training models for image-to-video deblurring, which aims to recover a sequence of sharp images corresponding to a given blurry image input. A critical issue disturbing the training of an image-to-video model is the ambiguity of the frame ordering since both the forward and backward sequences are plausible solutions. This paper proposes an effective self-supervised ordering scheme that allows training high-quality image-to-video deblurring models. Unlike previous methods that rely on order-invariant losses, we assign an explicit order for each video sequence, thus avoiding the order-ambiguity issue. Specifically, we map each video sequence to a vector in a latent high-dimensional space so that there exists a hyperplane such that for every video sequence, the vectors extracted from it and its reversed sequence are on different sides of the hyperplane. The side of the vectors will be used to define the order of the corresponding sequence. Last but not least, we propose a real-image dataset for the image-to-video deblurring problem that covers a variety of popular domains, including face, hand, and street. Extensive experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our method. Code and data are available at https://github.com/VinAIResearch/HyperCUT.git

For a sequence of random variables (X_1, X_2, ldots, X_n), n geq 1, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index -alpha, alpha geq 0, we show that the contribution of the maximum term M_n triangleq max(X_1,ldots,X_n) in the sum S_n triangleq X_1 + cdots +X_n, as n to infty, decreases monotonically with alpha in stochastic ordering sense.

Effective analysis of tabular data still poses a significant problem in deep learning, mainly because features in tabular datasets are often heterogeneous and have different levels of relevance. This work introduces TabSeq, a novel framework for the sequential ordering of features, addressing the vital necessity to optimize the learning process. Features are not always equally informative, and for certain deep learning models, their random arrangement can hinder the model's learning capacity. Finding the optimum sequence order for such features could improve the deep learning models' learning process. The novel feature ordering technique we provide in this work is based on clustering and incorporates both local ordering and global ordering. It is designed to be used with a multi-head attention mechanism in a denoising autoencoder network. Our framework uses clustering to align comparable features and improve data organization. Multi-head attention focuses on essential characteristics, whereas the denoising autoencoder highlights important aspects by rebuilding from distorted inputs. This method improves the capability to learn from tabular data while lowering redundancy. Our research, demonstrating improved performance through appropriate feature sequence rearrangement using raw antibody microarray and two other real-world biomedical datasets, validates the impact of feature ordering. These results demonstrate that feature ordering can be a viable approach to improved deep learning of tabular data.

The quality of training data impacts the performance of pre-trained large language models (LMs). Given a fixed budget of tokens, we study how to best select data that leads to good downstream model performance across tasks. We develop a new framework based on a simple hypothesis: just as humans acquire interdependent skills in a deliberate order, language models also follow a natural order when learning a set of skills from their training data. If such an order exists, it can be utilized for improved understanding of LMs and for data-efficient training. Using this intuition, our framework formalizes the notion of a skill and of an ordered set of skills in terms of the associated data. First, using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that these ordered skill sets exist, and that their existence enables more advanced skills to be learned with less data when we train on their prerequisite skills. Second, using our proposed framework, we introduce an online data sampling algorithm, Skill-It, over mixtures of skills for both continual pre-training and fine-tuning regimes, where the objective is to efficiently learn multiple skills in the former and an individual skill in the latter. On the LEGO synthetic in the continual pre-training setting, Skill-It obtains 36.5 points higher accuracy than random sampling. On the Natural Instructions dataset in the fine-tuning setting, Skill-It reduces the validation loss on the target skill by 13.6% versus training on data associated with the target skill itself. We apply our skills framework on the recent RedPajama dataset to continually pre-train a 3B-parameter LM, achieving higher accuracy on the LM Evaluation Harness with 1B tokens than the baseline approach of sampling uniformly over data sources with 3B tokens.

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. However, there are many analytic choices which must be made to produce these samples. Though many of these choices are defensible, their impact on sample quality is poorly understood. I map out these analytic choices and demonstrate how a very small number of decisions can dramatically change the correspondence between silicon samples and human data. Configurations (N = 252) varied substantially in their capacity to estimate (i) rank ordering of participants, (ii) response distributions, and (iii) between-scale correlations. Most critically, configurations were not consistent in quality: those that performed well on one dimension often performed poorly on another, implying that there is no "one-size-fits-all" configuration that optimises the accuracy of these samples. I call for greater attention to the threat of analytic flexibility in using silicon samples.

Is it possible to perform linear regression on datasets whose labels are shuffled with respect to the inputs? We explore this question by proposing several estimators that recover the weights of a noisy linear model from labels that are shuffled by an unknown permutation. We show that the analog of the classical least-squares estimator produces inconsistent estimates in this setting, and introduce an estimator based on the self-moments of the input features and labels. We study the regimes in which each estimator excels, and generalize the estimators to the setting where partial ordering information is available in the form of experiments replicated independently. The result is a framework that enables robust inference, as we demonstrate by experiments on both synthetic and standard datasets, where we are able to recover approximate weights using only shuffled labels. Our work demonstrates that linear regression in the absence of complete ordering information is possible and can be of practical interest, particularly in experiments that characterize populations of particles, such as flow cytometry.

Recent works show that ordering of the training data affects the model performance for Neural Machine Translation. Several approaches involving dynamic data ordering and data sharding based on curriculum learning have been analysed for the their performance gains and faster convergence. In this work we propose to empirically study several ordering approaches for the training data based on different metrics and evaluate their impact on the model performance. Results from our study show that pre-fixing the ordering of the training data based on perplexity scores from a pre-trained model performs the best and outperforms the default approach of randomly shuffling the training data every epoch.

We study the conditions under which the convex relaxation of a mixed-integer linear programming formulation for ordered optimization problems, where sorting is part of the decision process, yields integral optimal solutions. Thereby solving the problem exactly in polynomial time. Our analysis identifies structural properties of the input data that influence the integrality of the relaxation. We show that incorporating ordered components introduces additional layers of combinatorial complexity that invalidate the exactness observed in classical (non-ordered) settings. In particular, for certain ordered problems such as the min--max case, the linear relaxation never recovers the integral solution. These results clarify the intrinsic hardness introduced by sorting and reveal that the strength of the relaxation depends critically on the ``proximity'' of the ordered problem to its classical counterpart: problems closer to the non-ordered case tend to admit tighter relaxations, while those further away exhibit substantially weaker behavior. Computational experiments on benchmark instances confirm the predictive value of the integrality conditions and demonstrate the practical implications of exact relaxations for ordered location problems.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

Large language models fine-tuned on human behavioural data have emerged as general-purpose cognitive proxies, but the scale this requires, and whether these models process task structure or exploit statistical shortcuts, remain open questions. We train fourteen models from 135M to 14B parameters across four architecture families on Psych-101, a dataset of 10.7 million trial-level choices from 160 experiments. For in-distribution simulations, scale barely matters. The models fall within a narrow band, as though against a ceiling, and 0.6B to 1B parameters suffice to match a 70B baseline on held-out participants. Out-of-distribution, that band opens into a markedly steeper scaling gradient, with larger models clearly advantaged in generalisation to novel task structure. To determine what information these models use, we run two diagnostics. We progressively strip four prompt channels -- task instructions, experimental stimuli, outcome feedback, and choice history -- across 27 experiments, and permute trial order. Masking the content of stimuli and feedback destroys 75.7% of learned information and pushes models below chance, demonstrating that choice history alone does not account for performance. Permutation reveals invariance on tasks with independent trials but sensitivity where trial order is determined by prior responses. Small cognitively fine-tuned models therefore show promise as noise ceiling estimators for psychological experiments, though their scope remains bounded by the paradigms seen in training.

An oft-cited open problem of federated learning is the existence of data heterogeneity at the clients. One pathway to understanding the drastic accuracy drop in federated learning is by scrutinizing the behavior of the clients' deep models on data with different levels of "difficulty", which has been left unaddressed. In this paper, we investigate a different and rarely studied dimension of FL: ordered learning. Specifically, we aim to investigate how ordered learning principles can contribute to alleviating the heterogeneity effects in FL. We present theoretical analysis and conduct extensive empirical studies on the efficacy of orderings spanning three kinds of learning: curriculum, anti-curriculum, and random curriculum. We find that curriculum learning largely alleviates non-IIDness. Interestingly, the more disparate the data distributions across clients the more they benefit from ordered learning. We provide analysis explaining this phenomenon, specifically indicating how curriculum training appears to make the objective landscape progressively less convex, suggesting fast converging iterations at the beginning of the training procedure. We derive quantitative results of convergence for both convex and nonconvex objectives by modeling the curriculum training on federated devices as local SGD with locally biased stochastic gradients. Also, inspired by ordered learning, we propose a novel client selection technique that benefits from the real-world disparity in the clients. Our proposed approach to client selection has a synergic effect when applied together with ordered learning in FL.

Diffusion language models generate without a fixed left-to-right order, leaving token ordering as a central algorithmic choice. Existing systems mainly use random masking or confidence-driven ordering, which respectively suffer from train--test mismatch and myopic exploration. We introduce DPRM (Doob -transform Process Reward Model), a plug-in token-ordering module that keeps the host architecture, denoising objective and supervision unchanged, and modifies only the ordering policy. DPRM starts from confidence-driven ordering and gradually shifts to process-reward-guided ordering through online estimates. We characterize the exact DPRM policy as a reward-tilted Gibbs reveal law, prove convergence of its stagewise Soft-BoN approximation, show that the online bucketized controller tracks the exact DPRM score at empirical-Bernstein rates, and establish a sample-complexity advantage under tractable optimization assumptions. Across nine hosts covering language reasoning, test-time scaling, protein, single-cell, molecular, DNA, text-to-image generation, and VQA, DPRM order variants improve several language, DNA, and multimodal settings while also identifying boundary cases where confidence-only ordering or task-specific utilities are preferable. Code is available at: https://github.com/DakeBU/DPRM-DLLM

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Many discrete reasoning tasks, such as code generation, are inherently non-causal: programmers move between high-level structure and local details, a process we call any-order inference. For autoregressive language models, which lack a native any-order interface, non-causal abilities such as infilling and next-edit prediction require hand-designed mechanisms. Can we instead design models that natively support any-order inference? Masked diffusion models have recently emerged as compelling candidates, as their any-order training objective naturally offers an any-order prediction interface. This interface, however, does not automatically yield any-order inference. We demonstrate that this interface-inference gap stems from positional uncertainty: fixed-canvas, token-level models may know what semantic component should appear without knowing where to place it. In light of this, we propose two complementary approaches: (1) Insertion-based masked diffusion, building on FlexMDM (Kim et al, 2025), relaxes fixed-position commitments via insertions, enabling generation across non-contiguous regions. (2) Latent-space masked diffusion shifts prediction to coarser semantic segments, enabling search over latent generation orders. Empirically, we train a 7B FlexMDM for Python coding and a 125M LatentMDM for GSM8K and show that both approaches induce distinct any-order inference behaviors and improve downstream performance. We release our codebase at https://github.com/SeunggeunKimkr/genuine-any-order.

Automatic Differentiation (AD) has become a dominant technique in ML. AD frameworks have first been implemented for imperative languages using tapes. Meanwhile, functional implementations of AD have been developed, often based on dual numbers, which are close to the formal specification of differentiation and hence easier to prove correct. But these papers have focussed on correctness not efficiency. Recently, it was shown how an approach using dual numbers could be made efficient through the right optimizations. Optimizations are highly dependent on order, as one optimization can enable another. It can therefore be useful to have fine-grained control over the scheduling of optimizations. One method expresses compiler optimizations as rewrite rules, whose application can be combined and controlled using strategy languages. Previous work describes the use of term rewriting and strategies to generate high-performance code in a compiler for a functional language. In this work, we implement dual numbers AD in a functional array programming language using rewrite rules and strategy combinators for optimization. We aim to combine the elegance of differentiation using dual numbers with a succinct expression of the optimization schedule using a strategy language. We give preliminary evidence suggesting the viability of the approach on a micro-benchmark.

We define a new class of set functions that in addition to being monotone and subadditive, also admit a very limited form of submodularity defined over a permutation of the ground set. We refer to this permutation as a submodular order. This class of functions includes monotone submodular functions as a sub-family. To understand the importance of this structure in optimization problems we consider the problem of maximizing function value under various types of constraints. To demonstrate the modeling power of submodular order functions we show applications in two different settings. First, we apply our results to the extensively studied problem of assortment optimization. While the objectives in assortment optimization are known to be non-submodular (and non-monotone) even for simple choice models, we show that they are compatible with the notion of submodular order. Consequently, we obtain new and in some cases the first constant factor guarantee for constrained assortment optimization in fundamental choice models. As a second application of submodular order functions, we show an intriguing connection to the maximization of monotone submodular functions in the streaming model. We recover some best known guarantees for this problem as a corollary of our results.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

What a language model internalizes from fine-tuning is usually diagnosed after the fact. We make it an experimental variable. OraclePhys is a systematic fine-tuning framework with three components: OraclePhys-Bench, an exactly-graded structural-mechanics benchmark whose finite-element oracle scores every answer and counterfactual edit -- no human labels, no LLM judging; OraclePhys-30K, a supervision dataset of seven answer forms over byte-identical structure descriptions; and a controlled training study across the seven forms and three verifier roles. The study yields two findings. First, the label's answer form -- not its bit count -- causally determines what fine-tuning teaches: a ranking objective installs an out-of-distribution forward model where the untrained base sits at the guessing prior, a scalar objective at best a partial one, a boolean nothing detectable; the vector-scalar gulf survives a second physics domain, a second model family, and a paraphrased evaluation surface. Second, written or score-filtered answers install this capability, while advantage-weighted scores (GRPO) raise reward yet leave the model statistically equivalent to its start on held-out physics -- within the recipes and budgets tested -- sufficing only for routing. The trained 8B -- the first LLM on spatial structural response -- reaches the task's data-precision frontier: above a frontier LLM at zero- and 32-shot, at a specialist's level. What the label spells out about the target computation is what fine-tuning teaches; what you train on is what you route.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

In many domains generating variable length sequences through insertions provides greater flexibility over autoregressive models. However, the action space of insertion models is much larger than that of autoregressive models (ARMs) making the learning challenging. To address this, we incorporate trainable order dynamics into the target rates for discrete flow matching, and show that with suitable choices of parameterizations, joint training of the target order dynamics and the generator is tractable without the need for numerical simulation. As the generative insertion model, we use a variable length masked diffusion model, which generates by inserting and filling mask tokens. On graph traversal tasks for which a locally optimal insertion order is known, we explore the choices of parameterization empirically and demonstrate the trade-offs between flexibility, training stability and generation quality. On de novo small molecule generation, we find that the learned order dynamics leads to an increase in the number of valid molecules generated and improved quality, when compared to uniform order dynamics.

The assumption that response and predictor belong to the same statistical unit may be violated in practice. Unbiased estimation and recovery of true label ordering based on unlabeled data are challenging tasks and have attracted increasing attentions in the recent literature. In this paper, we present a relatively complete analysis of label permutation problem for the generalized linear model with multivariate responses. The theory is established under different scenarios, with knowledge of true parameters, with partial knowledge of underlying label permutation matrix and without any knowledge. Our results remove the stringent conditions required by the current literature and are further extended to the missing observation setting which has never been considered in the field of label permutation problem. On computational side, we propose two methods, "maximum likelihood estimation" algorithm and "two-step estimation" algorithm, to accommodate for different settings. When the proportion of permuted labels is moderate, both methods work effectively. Multiple numerical experiments are provided and corroborate our theoretical findings.

Audio decisions often depend on evidence that a transcript does not preserve, while their probability estimates can depend on how answer options are ordered. AudioJev maps a waveform, question and supplied alternatives directly to a candidate distribution through one shared full-parameter model. We define order calibration as preserving an answer's probability under meaning-preserving option permutations. Random-derangement SKL training pairs each question with a reordered view in which every alternative changes position, supervises both answers, and aligns the two distributions before applying a symmetric KL penalty. Inference retains a single candidate-scoring forward, with no calibration head or order ensemble. Across three training seeds, AudioJev reaches 68.88%/55.33% mean accuracy on complete MMAU/MMAR and reduces random-order SKL by 43.8%/60.5% relative to the single-view removal ablation. The same model handles intent, environmental sound, note properties, speech activity and conversational transitions. Paired removal ablations and multi-order evaluation measure predictive accuracy and probability stability together, establishing a direct audio interface whose calibration objective acts on candidate meaning rather than presentation position. Inference code and model weights are available at https://github.com/SihanLv/AudioJev-Inference and https://huggingface.co/shlv/AudioJev.

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

Reordering is a preprocessing stage for Statistical Machine Translation (SMT) system where the words of the source sentence are reordered as per the syntax of the target language. We are proposing a rich set of rules for better reordering. The idea is to facilitate the training process by better alignments and parallel phrase extraction for a phrase-based SMT system. Reordering also helps the decoding process and hence improving the machine translation quality. We have observed significant improvements in the translation quality by using our approach over the baseline SMT. We have used BLEU, NIST, multi-reference word error rate, multi-reference position independent error rate for judging the improvements. We have exploited open source SMT toolkit MOSES to develop the system.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

We discuss the numerical solution of initial value problems for varepsilon^2,varphi''+a(x),varphi=0 in the highly oscillatory regime, i.e., with a(x)>0 and 0<varepsilonll 1. We analyze and implement an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz. The resulting approximation error is of magnitude O(varepsilon^{N}) where N refers to the truncation order of the underlying asymptotic series. When the optimal truncation order N_{opt} is chosen, the error behaves like O(varepsilon^{-2}exp(-cvarepsilon^{-1})) with some c>0.

Deep regression models typically learn in an end-to-end fashion without explicitly emphasizing a regression-aware representation. Consequently, the learned representations exhibit fragmentation and fail to capture the continuous nature of sample orders, inducing suboptimal results across a wide range of regression tasks. To fill the gap, we propose Rank-N-Contrast (RNC), a framework that learns continuous representations for regression by contrasting samples against each other based on their rankings in the target space. We demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, that RNC guarantees the desired order of learned representations in accordance with the target orders, enjoying not only better performance but also significantly improved robustness, efficiency, and generalization. Extensive experiments using five real-world regression datasets that span computer vision, human-computer interaction, and healthcare verify that RNC achieves state-of-the-art performance, highlighting its intriguing properties including better data efficiency, robustness to spurious targets and data corruptions, and generalization to distribution shifts. Code is available at: https://github.com/kaiwenzha/Rank-N-Contrast.

Large language models are trained on vast amounts of internet data, prompting concerns and speculation that they have memorized public benchmarks. Going from speculation to proof of contamination is challenging, as the pretraining data used by proprietary models are often not publicly accessible. We show that it is possible to provide provable guarantees of test set contamination in language models without access to pretraining data or model weights. Our approach leverages the fact that when there is no data contamination, all orderings of an exchangeable benchmark should be equally likely. In contrast, the tendency for language models to memorize example order means that a contaminated language model will find certain canonical orderings to be much more likely than others. Our test flags potential contamination whenever the likelihood of a canonically ordered benchmark dataset is significantly higher than the likelihood after shuffling the examples. We demonstrate that our procedure is sensitive enough to reliably prove test set contamination in challenging situations, including models as small as 1.4 billion parameters, on small test sets of only 1000 examples, and datasets that appear only a few times in the pretraining corpus. Using our test, we audit five popular publicly accessible language models for test set contamination and find little evidence for pervasive contamination.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Generative models trained on extensive high-quality datasets effectively capture the structural and statistical properties of clean images, rendering them powerful priors for transforming degraded features into clean ones in image restoration. VAR, a novel image generative paradigm, surpasses diffusion models in generation quality by applying a next-scale prediction approach. It progressively captures both global structures and fine-grained details through the autoregressive process, consistent with the multi-scale restoration principle widely acknowledged in the restoration community. Furthermore, we observe that during the image reconstruction process utilizing VAR, scale predictions automatically modulate the input, facilitating the alignment of representations at subsequent scales with the distribution of clean images. To harness VAR's adaptive distribution alignment capability in image restoration tasks, we formulate the multi-scale latent representations within VAR as the restoration prior, thus advancing our delicately designed VarFormer framework. The strategic application of these priors enables our VarFormer to achieve remarkable generalization on unseen tasks while also reducing training computational costs. Extensive experiments underscores that our VarFormer outperforms existing multi-task image restoration methods across various restoration tasks.

High-dimensional tabular data lacks a natural feature order, limiting the applicability of permutation-sensitive deep learning models. We propose DynaTab, a dynamic feature ordering-enabled architecture inspired by neural rewiring. We introduce a lightweight criterion that predicts when feature permutation will benefit a dataset by quantifying its intrinsic complexity. DynaTab dynamically reorders features via a neural rewiring algorithm and processes them through a compact, dynamic order-aware combination of separate learned positional embedding, importance-based gating, and masked attention layers, compatible with any sequence-sensitive backbone. Trained end-to-end with bespoke dynamic feature ordering (DFO) and dispersion losses, DynaTab achieves statistically significant gains, particularly on high-dimensional datasets, where it is benchmarked against 45 state-of-the-art baselines across 36 different real-world tabular datasets. Our results position DynaTab as a compelling new paradigm for high-dimensional tabular deep learning.

We investigate how to make small tabular foundation models effective for High-Dimensional, Low-Sample Size (HDLSS) tabular prediction without retraining large backbones. We introduce Graph-guided Ordering with Local Refinement (GO-LR), show its equivalence to weighted Minimum Linear Arrangement, and interpret the practical solver as a TSP-path-style surrogate. We propose GOTabPFN,which builds on GO-LR, and a Neuro-Inspired Subunit Compression (NSC) unit to pool locally adjacent ordered features into meta-features, yielding a compact representation that makes TabPFN-style prediction practical in HDLSS regimes. Across tabular benchmarks, GOTabPFN improves stability and accuracy under tight token budgets.

Sorting is a fundamental operation of all computer systems, having been a long-standing significant research topic. Beyond the problem formulation of traditional sorting algorithms, we consider sorting problems for more abstract yet expressive inputs, e.g., multi-digit images and image fragments, through a neural sorting network. To learn a mapping from a high-dimensional input to an ordinal variable, the differentiability of sorting networks needs to be guaranteed. In this paper we define a softening error by a differentiable swap function, and develop an error-free swap function that holds a non-decreasing condition and differentiability. Furthermore, a permutation-equivariant Transformer network with multi-head attention is adopted to capture dependency between given inputs and also leverage its model capacity with self-attention. Experiments on diverse sorting benchmarks show that our methods perform better than or comparable to baseline methods.

Large language models (LLMs) have accomplished remarkable reasoning performance in various domains. However, in the domain of reasoning tasks, we discover a frailty: LLMs are surprisingly brittle to the ordering of the premises, despite the fact that such ordering does not alter the underlying task. In particular, we observe that LLMs achieve the best performance when the premise order aligns with the context required in intermediate reasoning steps. For example, in deductive reasoning tasks, presenting the premises in the same order as the ground truth proof in the prompt (as opposed to random ordering) drastically increases the model's accuracy. We first examine the effect of premise ordering on deductive reasoning on a variety of LLMs, and our evaluation shows that permuting the premise order can cause a performance drop of over 30%. In addition, we release the benchmark R-GSM, based on GSM8K, to examine the ordering effect for mathematical problem-solving, and we again observe a significant drop in accuracy, relative to the original GSM8K benchmark.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become essential in many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, leveraging extensive pre-training and fine-tuning to achieve high accuracy. However, like humans, LLMs exhibit biases, particularly positional biases such as primacy and recency effects, which can influence the accuracy of the answers. The primacy effect-where items presented first are more likely to be remembered or selected-plays a key role in Multiple Choice Question Answering (MCQA), where the order of answer options can affect prediction outcomes. This study focuses on primacy bias in fine-tuned LLMs: We first show that fine-tuning amplifies this bias, probably due to exposure to human-like patterns. Hence, we strategically leverage this effect by reordering response options based on semantic similarity to the query, without requiring knowledge of the correct answer. Our experimental results show that this approach significantly improves performance in MCQA. More generally, our findings underscore the dual nature of biases as both challenges and opportunities, offering insights for bias-aware model design and NLP applications.

Efficient operator scheduling is a fundamental challenge in software compilation and hardware synthesis. While recent differentiable approaches have sought to replace traditional ones like exact solvers or heuristics with gradient-based search, they typically rely on categorical distributions that fail to capture the ordinal nature of time and suffer from a parameter space that scales poorly. In this paper, we propose a novel differentiable framework, GauS, that models operator scheduling as a stochastic relaxation using Gaussian distributions, which fully utilize modern parallel computing devices like GPUs. By representing schedules as continuous Gaussian variables, we successfully capture the ordinal nature of time and reduce the optimization space by orders of magnitude. Our method is highly flexible to represent various objectives and constraints, which provides the first differentiable formulation for the complex pipelined scheduling problem. We evaluate our method on a range of benchmarks, demonstrating that Gaus achieves Pareto-optimal results.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (e.g. GRPO) is the engine behind today's reasoning models, yet it grades only the final answer. On hard problems this trains models to write more rather than to think better, since the trace itself is never graded and no label for good thinking exists. We introduce Agon, which makes two competing models each other's graders. Both attempt the same problem; in alternating roles, one drafts a solution and the other reads it while solving, and each is rewarded for out-solving the other. To win, a model must out-reason a rival that has seen its work, so reasoning is judged implicitly during training, with no process labels and no reward model. Because both models are optimized, each faces a progressively stronger rival, which single-model RL cannot provide. The two need only be comparably strong and behaviorally different. At inference the pair deploys as it trains, a two-stage cascade in which one model drafts and the other answers after reading the draft. On the hard split of DeepMath with Qwen3, this doubles GRPO's pass@1, roughly eight times the gain of an untrained Mixture-of-Agents pass over the same base. The ordering replicates on competitive-programming code and across model families (Qwen3.5, Gemma 4). For now the models talk in text; the next step is to let them reason together in latent space.

Providing Large Language Models with relevant contextual knowledge at inference time has been shown to greatly improve the quality of their generations. This is often achieved by prepending informative passages of text, or 'contexts', retrieved from external knowledge bases to their input. However, processing additional contexts online incurs significant computation costs that scale with their length. State Space Models (SSMs) offer a promising solution by allowing a database of contexts to be mapped onto fixed-dimensional states from which to start the generation. A key challenge arises when attempting to leverage information present across multiple contexts, since there is no straightforward way to condition generation on multiple independent states in existing SSMs. To address this, we leverage a simple mathematical relation derived from SSM dynamics to compose multiple states into one that efficiently approximates the effect of concatenating raw context tokens. Since the temporal ordering of contexts can often be uninformative, we enforce permutation-invariance by efficiently averaging states obtained via our composition algorithm across all possible context orderings. We evaluate our resulting method on WikiText and MSMARCO in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings, and show that we can match the strongest performing baseline while enjoying on average 5.4x speedup.

Real-world instructions with multiple constraints pose a significant challenge to existing large language models (LLMs). An observation is that the LLMs exhibit dramatic performance fluctuation when disturbing the order of the incorporated constraints. Yet, none of the existing works has systematically investigated this position bias problem in the field of multi-constraint instruction following. To bridge this gap, we design a probing task where we quantitatively measure the difficulty distribution of the constraints by a novel Difficulty Distribution Index (CDDI). Through the experimental results, we find that LLMs are more performant when presented with the constraints in a ``hard-to-easy'' order. This preference can be generalized to LLMs with different architecture or different sizes of parameters. Additionally, we conduct an explanation study, providing an intuitive insight into the correlation between the LLM's attention and constraint orders. Our code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/meowpass/PBIF.

We introduce refutationally complete superposition calculi for intentional and extensional clausal lambda-free higher-order logic, two formalisms that allow partial application and applied variables. The calculi are parameterized by a term order that need not be fully monotonic, making it possible to employ the lambda-free higher-order lexicographic path and Knuth-Bendix orders. We implemented the calculi in the Zipperposition prover and evaluated them on Isabelle/HOL and TPTP benchmarks. They appear promising as a stepping stone towards complete, highly efficient automatic theorem provers for full higher-order logic.

The last few years have seen significant experimental progress in characterizing the copper-based hole-doped high temperature superconductors in the regime of low hole density, p. Quantum oscillations, NMR, X-ray, and STM experiments have shed much light on the nature of the ordering at low temperatures. We review evidence that the order parameter in the non-Lanthanum-based cuprates is a d-form factor density-wave. This novel order acts as an unexpected window into the electronic structure of the pseudogap phase at higher temperatures in zero field: we argue in favor of a `fractionalized Fermi liquid' (FL*) with 4 pockets of spin S=1/2, charge +e fermions enclosing an area specified by p.

Despite the remarkable progress of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they continue to face challenges in achieving competitive performance on ordinal regression (OR; a.k.a. ordinal classification). To address this issue, this paper presents OrderChain, a novel and general prompting paradigm that improves the ordinal understanding ability of MLLMs by specificity and commonality modeling. Specifically, our OrderChain consists of a set of task-aware prompts to facilitate the specificity modeling of diverse OR tasks and a new range optimization Chain-of-Thought (RO-CoT), which learns a commonality way of thinking about OR tasks by uniformly decomposing them into multiple small-range optimization subtasks. Further, we propose a category recursive division (CRD) method to generate instruction candidate category prompts to support RO-CoT automatic optimization. Comprehensive experiments show that LLaVA model with our OrderChain improves baseline LLaVA significantly on diverse OR datasets, e.g., from 47.5\% to 93.2\% accuracy on the Adience dataset for age estimation, and from 30.0\% to 85.7\% accuracy on the Diabetic Retinopathy dataset. Notably, LLaVA with our OrderChain also remarkably outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 27% on accuracy and 0.24 on MAE on the Adience dataset. To our best knowledge, our OrderChain is the first work that augments MLLMs for OR tasks, and the effectiveness is witnessed across a spectrum of OR datasets. Project Page: https://order-chain.github.io/.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Policy-gradient methods usually optimize expected return, but many real world applications care about distributional properties of returns: tail risk, outlier robustness, or best-of-K discovery. We introduce OrderGrad, a family of likelihood-ratio and reparameterization gradient estimators for order-statistic objectives. OrderGrad optimizes finite-sample L-statistics, i.e., weighted averages of sorted rewards or costs, recovering objectives such as VaR, CVaR, trimmed means, medians, and top-m/best-of-K criteria by changing only the rank weights. For any fixed sample size and rank-weight vector, OrderGrad provides an unbiased gradient estimator for the corresponding order-statistic objective. The method is implemented as a simple reward transformation that can then be used in an otherwise standard policy-gradient or reparameterized update. We study the resulting estimator's variance behavior and evaluate it on tasks where mean optimization is mismatched to the deployment objective, including LLM math post-training and other tasks. OrderGrad provides a unified, plug-and-play route to risk-averse, robust, and exploratory learning. Code: https://github.com/paavo5/ordergrad

Customizing LLMs for a specific task involves separating high-quality responses from lower-quality ones. This skill can be developed using supervised fine-tuning with extensive human preference data. However, obtaining a large volume of expert-annotated data is costly for most tasks. In this paper, we explore a novel method to optimize LLMs using ranking metrics. This method trains the model to prioritize the best responses from a pool of candidates created for a particular task. Rather than a traditional full ordering, we advocate for a partial ordering, as achieving consensus on the perfect order of candidate responses can be challenging. Our partial ordering is more robust, less sensitive to noise, and can be achieved with limited human annotations or through heuristic methods. We test our system's improved response generation ability using benchmark datasets, including textual entailment and multi-document question answering. We conduct ablation studies to understand crucial factors, such as how to gather candidate responses for a specific task, determine their most suitable order, and balance supervised fine-tuning with ranking metrics. Our approach, named Rescue, offers a promising avenue for enhancing the response generation and task accuracy of LLMs.

Data is fundamental to the training of language models (LM). Recent research has been dedicated to data efficiency, which aims to maximize performance by selecting a minimal or optimal subset of training data. Techniques such as data filtering, sampling, and selection play a crucial role in this area. To complement it, we define Data Efficacy, which focuses on maximizing performance by optimizing the organization of training data and remains relatively underexplored. This work introduces a general paradigm, DELT, for considering data efficacy in LM training, which highlights the significance of training data organization. DELT comprises three components: Data Scoring, Data Selection, and Data Ordering. Among these components, we design Learnability-Quality Scoring (LQS), as a new instance of Data Scoring, which considers both the learnability and quality of each data sample from the gradient consistency perspective. We also devise Folding Ordering (FO), as a novel instance of Data Ordering, which addresses issues such as model forgetting and data distribution bias. Comprehensive experiments validate the data efficacy in LM training, which demonstrates the following: Firstly, various instances of the proposed DELT enhance LM performance to varying degrees without increasing the data scale and model size. Secondly, among these instances, the combination of our proposed LQS for data scoring and Folding for data ordering achieves the most significant improvement. Lastly, data efficacy can be achieved together with data efficiency by applying data selection. Therefore, we believe that data efficacy is a promising foundational area in LM training.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

When primed with only a handful of training samples, very large, pretrained language models such as GPT-3 have shown competitive results when compared to fully-supervised, fine-tuned, large, pretrained language models. We demonstrate that the order in which the samples are provided can make the difference between near state-of-the-art and random guess performance: essentially some permutations are "fantastic" and some not. We analyse this phenomenon in detail, establishing that: it is present across model sizes (even for the largest current models), it is not related to a specific subset of samples, and that a given good permutation for one model is not transferable to another. While one could use a development set to determine which permutations are performant, this would deviate from the true few-shot setting as it requires additional annotated data. Instead, we use the generative nature of language models to construct an artificial development set and based on entropy statistics of the candidate permutations on this set, we identify performant prompts. Our method yields a 13% relative improvement for GPT-family models across eleven different established text classification tasks.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

The sequential order of utterances is often meaningful in coherent dialogues, and the order changes of utterances could lead to low-quality and incoherent conversations. We consider the order information as a crucial supervised signal for dialogue learning, which, however, has been neglected by many previous dialogue systems. Therefore, in this paper, we introduce a self-supervised learning task, inconsistent order detection, to explicitly capture the flow of conversation in dialogues. Given a sampled utterance pair triple, the task is to predict whether it is ordered or misordered. Then we propose a sampling-based self-supervised network SSN to perform the prediction with sampled triple references from previous dialogue history. Furthermore, we design a joint learning framework where SSN can guide the dialogue systems towards more coherent and relevant dialogue learning through adversarial training. We demonstrate that the proposed methods can be applied to both open-domain and task-oriented dialogue scenarios, and achieve the new state-of-the-art performance on the OpenSubtitiles and Movie-Ticket Booking datasets.

Linear attention and state-space models provide linear-time sequence modeling, but their recurrent memory remains a second-order tensor (a matrix), limiting the order of interactions that can be represented in the state. We introduce the RunningTensor, which generalizes this memory to an order-o tensor, updated by a rank-1 outer product and read by contracting against o-1 vector queries. Order 2 recovers linear attention; we study order 3 as a proof of concept, retaining both recurrent and parallel forms while remaining linear in sequence length T and improving working memory capacity from O(W^2) to O(W^o). On synthetic multi-query associative recall, RunningTensor outperforms linear-attention and SSM baselines. After pretraining, it also improves performance on language-understanding and non-synthetic retrieval tasks, suggesting that higher-order recurrent state can provide useful additional memory capacity beyond matrix-valued state.

In this paper, we study quantum Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams(OBDD) model; it is a restricted version of read-once quantum branching programs, with respect to "width" complexity. It is known that the maximal gap between deterministic and quantum complexities is exponential. But there are few examples of functions with such a gap. We present a new technique ("reordering") for proving lower bounds and upper bounds for OBDD with an arbitrary order of input variables if we have similar bounds for the natural order. Using this transformation, we construct a total function REQ such that the deterministic OBDD complexity of it is at least 2^{Ω(n / log n)}, and the quantum OBDD complexity of it is at most O(n^2/log n). It is the biggest known gap for explicit functions not representable by OBDDs of a linear width. Another function(shifted equality function) allows us to obtain a gap 2^{Ω(n)} vs O(n^2). Moreover, we prove the bounded error quantum and probabilistic OBDD width hierarchies for complexity classes of Boolean functions. Additionally, using "reordering" method we extend a hierarchy for read-k-times Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams (k-OBDD) of polynomial width, for k = o(n / log^3 n). We prove a similar hierarchy for bounded error probabilistic k-OBDDs of polynomial, superpolynomial and subexponential width. The extended abstract of this work was presented on International Computer Science Symposium in Russia, CSR 2017, Kazan, Russia, June 8 -- 12, 2017

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Sequence models such as transformers require inputs to be represented as one-dimensional sequences. In vision, this typically involves flattening images using a fixed row-major (raster-scan) order. While full self-attention is permutation-equivariant, modern long-sequence transformers increasingly rely on architectural approximations that break this invariance and introduce sensitivity to patch ordering. We show that patch order significantly affects model performance in such settings, with simple alternatives like column-major or Hilbert curves yielding notable accuracy shifts. Motivated by this, we propose REOrder, a two-stage framework for discovering task-optimal patch orderings. First, we derive an information-theoretic prior by evaluating the compressibility of various patch sequences. Then, we learn a policy over permutations by optimizing a Plackett-Luce policy using REINFORCE. This approach enables efficient learning in a combinatorial permutation space. REOrder improves top-1 accuracy over row-major ordering on ImageNet-1K by up to 3.01% and Functional Map of the World by 13.35%.

In this paper, we propose Multiresolution Equivariant Graph Variational Autoencoders (MGVAE), the first hierarchical generative model to learn and generate graphs in a multiresolution and equivariant manner. At each resolution level, MGVAE employs higher order message passing to encode the graph while learning to partition it into mutually exclusive clusters and coarsening into a lower resolution that eventually creates a hierarchy of latent distributions. MGVAE then constructs a hierarchical generative model to variationally decode into a hierarchy of coarsened graphs. Importantly, our proposed framework is end-to-end permutation equivariant with respect to node ordering. MGVAE achieves competitive results with several generative tasks including general graph generation, molecular generation, unsupervised molecular representation learning to predict molecular properties, link prediction on citation graphs, and graph-based image generation.

Language models hold latent quantities in a form they can report on, and more of a quantity is present in that form when the task requires reusing it flexibly. What causes a representation to enter that form is open, and the word workspace invites an admission story: a gate that decides what gets in. Testing it on open-weight models with Jacobian lenses, over a benchmark whose five arms share an identical context, we find no gate where it predicts one. Demand raises a concept's lens visibility beyond what applying an operator to a supplied value produces: +0.050 [+0.045, +0.057] in percentile rank on our primary checkpoint, positive on all four we measure, though that arm answers at ceiling and the accuracymatched contrast is stronger under that readout. At the same time one shared linear map decodes the variable from every arm, the control included, at 6.4-9.0x its selection-corrected floor. What produces the later readable form at the queried position is attention-mediated gathering inside a mid-depth window: separating patch depth from readout depth puts transport there at least 17x above anywhere shallower under non-saturating readouts, with no tested MLP output contributing positively inside it. Under the saturating percentile rank the same grid does not localise the window, which is a fact about that measure. An arm that needs the variable for nothing concentrates sevenfold less, so the window is demand-specific. That window has two measured edges, a survival failure below and destruction above, and it falls at the same fractional depth in a 64-layer hybrid and a 62-layer dense model from another family. We localise where the variable is installed and read, not the route from the passage, which transports nothing. But the readout is not a calibrated measure of use: three components move it to within 12% of one another and differ 7.4x in what they do to the answer.

Causal precedence between biochemical interactions is crucial in the biomedical domain, because it transforms collections of individual interactions, e.g., bindings and phosphorylations, into the causal mechanisms needed to inform meaningful search and inference. Here, we analyze causal precedence in the biomedical domain as distinct from open-domain, temporal precedence. First, we describe a novel, hand-annotated text corpus of causal precedence in the biomedical domain. Second, we use this corpus to investigate a battery of models of precedence, covering rule-based, feature-based, and latent representation models. The highest-performing individual model achieved a micro F1 of 43 points, approaching the best performers on the simpler temporal-only precedence tasks. Feature-based and latent representation models each outperform the rule-based models, but their performance is complementary to one another. We apply a sieve-based architecture to capitalize on this lack of overlap, achieving a micro F1 score of 46 points.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Self-supervised learning of convolutional neural networks can harness large amounts of cheap unlabeled data to train powerful feature representations. As surrogate task, we jointly address ordering of visual data in the spatial and temporal domain. The permutations of training samples, which are at the core of self-supervision by ordering, have so far been sampled randomly from a fixed preselected set. Based on deep reinforcement learning we propose a sampling policy that adapts to the state of the network, which is being trained. Therefore, new permutations are sampled according to their expected utility for updating the convolutional feature representation. Experimental evaluation on unsupervised and transfer learning tasks demonstrates competitive performance on standard benchmarks for image and video classification and nearest neighbor retrieval.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

Powerful generative models, particularly in Natural Language Modelling, are commonly trained by maximizing a variational lower bound on the data log likelihood. These models often suffer from poor use of their latent variable, with ad-hoc annealing factors used to encourage retention of information in the latent variable. We discuss an alternative and general approach to latent variable modelling, based on an objective that combines the data log likelihood as well as the likelihood of a perfect reconstruction through an autoencoder. Tying these together ensures by design that the latent variable captures information about the observations, whilst retaining the ability to generate well. Interestingly, though this approach is a priori unrelated to VAEs, the lower bound attained is identical to the standard VAE bound but with the addition of a simple pre-factor; thus, providing a formal interpretation of the commonly used, ad-hoc pre-factors in training VAEs.

Language models often pre-train on large unsupervised text corpora, then fine-tune on additional task-specific data. However, typical fine-tuning schemes do not prioritize the examples that they tune on. We show that, if you can prioritize informative training data, you can achieve better performance while using fewer labels. To do this we augment a language model with an epinet: a small additional network that helps to estimate model uncertainty and forms an epistemic neural network (ENN). ENNs are neural networks that can know what they don't know. Using an epinet to prioritize uncertain data, we can fine-tune BERT on GLUE tasks to the same performance while using 2x less data than training without prioritization. We also investigate performance in synthetic neural network generative models designed to build understanding. In each setting, using an epinet outperforms heuristic active learning schemes.

Graph generation has been dominated by autoregressive models due to their simplicity and effectiveness, despite their sensitivity to ordering. Yet diffusion models have garnered increasing attention, as they offer comparable performance while being permutation-invariant. Current graph diffusion models generate graphs in a one-shot fashion, but they require extra features and thousands of denoising steps to achieve optimal performance. We introduce PARD, a Permutation-invariant Auto Regressive Diffusion model that integrates diffusion models with autoregressive methods. PARD harnesses the effectiveness and efficiency of the autoregressive model while maintaining permutation invariance without ordering sensitivity. Specifically, we show that contrary to sets, elements in a graph are not entirely unordered and there is a unique partial order for nodes and edges. With this partial order, PARD generates a graph in a block-by-block, autoregressive fashion, where each block's probability is conditionally modeled by a shared diffusion model with an equivariant network. To ensure efficiency while being expressive, we further propose a higher-order graph transformer, which integrates transformer with PPGN. Like GPT, we extend the higher-order graph transformer to support parallel training of all blocks. Without any extra features, PARD achieves state-of-the-art performance on molecular and non-molecular datasets, and scales to large datasets like MOSES containing 1.9M molecules.

Human-factor analysis typically employs correlation analysis and significance testing to identify relationships between variables. However, these descriptive ('what-is') methods, while effective for identifying associations, are often insufficient for answering causal ('what-if') questions. Their application in such contexts often overlooks confounding and colliding variables, potentially leading to bias and suboptimal or incorrect decisions. We advocate for explicitly distinguishing descriptive from interventional questions in human-factor analysis, and applying causal inference frameworks specifically to these problems to prevent methodological mismatches. This approach disentangles complex variable relationships and enables counterfactual reasoning. Using post-occupancy evaluation (POE) data from the Center for the Built Environment's (CBE) Occupant Survey as a demonstration case, we show how causal discovery reveals intervention hierarchies and directional relationships that traditional associational analysis misses. The systematic distinction between causally associated and independent variables, combined with intervention prioritization capabilities, offers broad applicability to complex human-centric systems, for example, in building science or ergonomics, where understanding intervention effects is critical for optimization and decision-making.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Crystal symmetry plays a fundamental role in determining its physical, chemical, and electronic properties such as electrical and thermal conductivity, optical and polarization behavior, and mechanical strength. Almost all known crystalline materials have internal symmetry. However, this is often inadequately addressed by existing generative models, making the consistent generation of stable and symmetrically valid crystal structures a significant challenge. We introduce WyFormer, a generative model that directly tackles this by formally conditioning on space group symmetry. It achieves this by using Wyckoff positions as the basis for an elegant, compressed, and discrete structure representation. To model the distribution, we develop a permutation-invariant autoregressive model based on the Transformer encoder and an absence of positional encoding. Extensive experimentation demonstrates WyFormer's compelling combination of attributes: it achieves best-in-class symmetry-conditioned generation, incorporates a physics-motivated inductive bias, produces structures with competitive stability, predicts material properties with competitive accuracy even without atomic coordinates, and exhibits unparalleled inference speed.

Recent advances in text-to-image generative models have enabled numerous practical applications, including subject-driven generation, which fine-tunes pretrained models to capture subject semantics from only a few examples. While diffusion-based models produce high-quality images, their extensive denoising steps result in significant computational overhead, limiting real-world applicability. Visual autoregressive~(VAR) models, which predict next-scale tokens rather than spatially adjacent ones, offer significantly faster inference suitable for practical deployment. In this paper, we propose the first VAR-based approach for subject-driven generation. However, na\"{\i}ve fine-tuning VAR leads to computational overhead, language drift, and reduced diversity. To address these challenges, we introduce selective layer tuning to reduce complexity and prior distillation to mitigate language drift. Additionally, we found that the early stages have a greater influence on the generation of subject than the latter stages, which merely synthesize local details. Based on this finding, we propose scale-wise weighted tuning, which prioritizes coarser resolutions for promoting the model to focus on the subject-relevant information instead of local details. Extensive experiments validate that our method significantly outperforms diffusion-based baselines across various metrics and demonstrates its practical usage.

We introduce a framework for automatically defining and learning deep generative models with problem-specific structure. We tackle problem domains that are more traditionally solved by algorithms such as sorting, constraint satisfaction for Sudoku, and matrix factorization. Concretely, we train diffusion models with an architecture tailored to the problem specification. This problem specification should contain a graphical model describing relationships between variables, and often benefits from explicit representation of subcomputations. Permutation invariances can also be exploited. Across a diverse set of experiments we improve the scaling relationship between problem dimension and our model's performance, in terms of both training time and final accuracy. Our code can be found at https://github.com/plai-group/gsdm.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

Identifiers, such as method and variable names, form a large portion of source code. Therefore, low-quality identifiers can substantially hinder code comprehension. To support developers in using meaningful identifiers, several (semi-)automatic techniques have been proposed, mostly being data-driven (e.g. statistical language models, deep learning models) or relying on static code analysis. Still, limited empirical investigations have been performed on the effectiveness of such techniques for recommending developers with meaningful identifiers, possibly resulting in rename refactoring operations. We present a large-scale study investigating the potential of data-driven approaches to support automated variable renaming. We experiment with three state-of-the-art techniques: a statistical language model and two DL-based models. The three approaches have been trained and tested on three datasets we built with the goal of evaluating their ability to recommend meaningful variable identifiers. Our quantitative and qualitative analyses show the potential of such techniques that, under specific conditions, can provide valuable recommendations and are ready to be integrated in rename refactoring tools. Nonetheless, our results also highlight limitations of the experimented approaches that call for further research in this field.

Recent advances in diffusion models have brought remarkable visual fidelity to instruction-guided image editing. However, their global denoising process inherently entangles the edited region with the entire image context, leading to unintended spurious modifications and compromised adherence to editing instructions. In contrast, autoregressive models offer a distinct paradigm by formulating image synthesis as a sequential process over discrete visual tokens. Their causal and compositional mechanism naturally circumvents the adherence challenges of diffusion-based methods. In this paper, we present VAREdit, a visual autoregressive (VAR) framework that reframes image editing as a next-scale prediction problem. Conditioned on source image features and text instructions, VAREdit generates multi-scale target features to achieve precise edits. A core challenge in this paradigm is how to effectively condition the source image tokens. We observe that finest-scale source features cannot effectively guide the prediction of coarser target features. To bridge this gap, we introduce a Scale-Aligned Reference (SAR) module, which injects scale-matched conditioning information into the first self-attention layer. VAREdit demonstrates significant advancements in both editing adherence and efficiency. On standard benchmarks, it outperforms leading diffusion-based methods by 30\%+ higher GPT-Balance score. Moreover, it completes a 512times512 editing in 1.2 seconds, making it 2.2times faster than the similarly sized UltraEdit. The models are available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/VAREdit.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

We present Neural Space-filling Curves (SFCs), a data-driven approach to infer a context-based scan order for a set of images. Linear ordering of pixels forms the basis for many applications such as video scrambling, compression, and auto-regressive models that are used in generative modeling for images. Existing algorithms resort to a fixed scanning algorithm such as Raster scan or Hilbert scan. Instead, our work learns a spatially coherent linear ordering of pixels from the dataset of images using a graph-based neural network. The resulting Neural SFC is optimized for an objective suitable for the downstream task when the image is traversed along with the scan line order. We show the advantage of using Neural SFCs in downstream applications such as image compression. Code and additional results will be made available at https://hywang66.github.io/publication/neuralsfc.

Logical reasoning is essential for large language models (LLMs) to ensure accurate and coherent inference. However, LLMs struggle with reasoning order variations and fail to generalize across logically equivalent transformations. LLMs often rely on fixed sequential patterns rather than true logical understanding. To address this issue, we introduce an order-centric data augmentation framework based on commutativity in logical reasoning. We first randomly shuffle independent premises to introduce condition order augmentation. For reasoning steps, we construct a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to model dependencies between steps, which allows us to identify valid reorderings of steps while preserving logical correctness. By leveraging order-centric augmentations, models can develop a more flexible and generalized reasoning process. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments across multiple logical reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating that our method significantly enhances LLMs' reasoning performance and adaptability to diverse logical structures. We release our codes and augmented data in https://github.com/qianxiHe147/Order-Centric-Data-Augmentation.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) are a potential alternative to autoregressive models (ARMs) for language generation, but generation quality depends critically on the generation order. Prior work either hard-codes an ordering (e.g., blockwise left-to-right) or learns an ordering policy for a pretrained MDM, which incurs extra cost and can yield suboptimal solutions due to the two-stage optimization. Motivated by this, we propose order-expressive masked diffusion model (OeMDM) for a broad class of diffusion generative processes with various generation orders, enabling the interpretation of MDM, ARM, and block diffusion in a single framework. Furthermore, building on OeMDM, we introduce learnable-order masked diffusion model (LoMDM), which jointly learns the generation ordering and diffusion backbone through a single objective from scratch, enabling the diffusion model to generate text in context-dependent ordering. Empirically, we confirm that LoMDM outperforms various discrete diffusion models across multiple language modeling benchmarks.

Direct-decision models turn text into low-latency structured labels and scores, making them attractive for classification and automatic evaluation. Yet reliability requires more than accuracy: a model must also use the ordinal decision scale supplied by the user faithfully. We analyze JEV~1.13 and three open KEV models. Our investigation begins with ANLI, where JEV assigns 38.8\% of all predictions and 51.3\% of errors to Neutral despite 74.95\% accuracy, nearly balanced gold labels, and balanced candidate positions. Across 36 ordinal datasets, final decisions use only 67--76\% of the effective gold support, versus 87--102\% on four nominal tasks. Randomizing candidate order weakens but does not remove this compression. Holding items and source scores fixed while balancing gold support and positions, we refine scales from K=2 to 14; utilization falls for every model and reaches 26--75\% at K=14, although candidate probabilities remain broad for most models. Targeted BA-LoRA post-training raises gold-relative utilization from roughly 47\% to 86\% on eight supervised scales at both KEV sizes, showing that the compression is learned and modifiable rather than an immutable architectural limit. We call this ordinal scale-utilization bias: decision-stage candidate-space compression distinct from accuracy, gold imbalance, fixed position, and candidate count alone. The code and data are available at https://github.com/Glax147/jev_ordinal_scale_bia

Visual autoregressive (VAR) models have recently emerged as a promising family of generative models, enabling a wide range of downstream vision tasks such as text-guided image editing. By shifting the editing paradigm from noise manipulation in diffusion-based methods to token-level operations, VAR-based approaches achieve better background preservation and significantly faster inference. However, existing VAR-based editing methods still face two key challenges: accurately localizing editable tokens and maintaining structural consistency in the edited results. In this work, we propose a novel text-guided image editing framework rooted in an analysis of intermediate feature distributions within VAR models. First, we introduce a coarse-to-fine token localization strategy that can refine editable regions, balancing editing fidelity and background preservation. Second, we analyze the intermediate representations of VAR models and identify structure-related features, by which we design a simple yet effective feature injection mechanism to enhance structural consistency between the edited and source images. Third, we develop a reinforcement learning-based adaptive feature injection scheme that automatically learns scale- and layer-specific injection ratios to jointly optimize editing fidelity and structure preservation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior structural consistency and editing quality compared with state-of-the-art approaches, across both local and global editing scenarios.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have advanced across multimodal benchmarks but still show clear gaps in ordinal number understanding, i.e., the ability to track relative positions and generalize to large indices. We present OrdinalBench, a diagnostic benchmark that standardizes ordinal number understanding as an evaluation task for VLMs. The core task is N-th object identification, defined by a starting reference and traversal rule. Task difficulty is controlled along three axes: (i) ordinal magnitude, from small numbers to extreme cases up to 300; (ii) arrangement complexity, from single loops to maze-like paths; and (iii) object count. The benchmark provides 39,000 question-answer pairs, each annotated with a ground-truth reasoning trajectory and balanced across difficulty levels for controlled large-scale testing. Beyond answer-only evaluation, our framework requires models to generate structured stepwise traces of the counting process and provides an open evaluation toolkit that measures both final accuracy and step-level path consistency. Zero-shot evaluations of GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite, Qwen2.5-VL, InternVL3.5, and Molmo reveal sharp degradation under large-ordinal and complex-path conditions, highlighting weak generalization despite strong scores on standard multimodal tasks. By framing ordinal number understanding as a core target, OrdinalBench provides a reproducible benchmark and diagnostic framework for developing VLMs with stronger sequential reasoning. All data and code are available at https://ordinalbench.github.io/

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

The development of generative language models that can create long and coherent textual outputs via autoregression has lead to a proliferation of uses and a corresponding sweep of analyses as researches work to determine the limitations of this new paradigm. Unlike humans, these 'Large Language Models' (LLMs) are highly sensitive to small changes in their inputs, leading to unwanted inconsistency in their behavior. One problematic inconsistency when LLMs are used to answer multiple-choice questions or analyze multiple inputs is order dependency: the output of an LLM can (and often does) change significantly when sub-sequences are swapped, despite both orderings being semantically identical. In this paper we present , a technique that guarantees the output of an LLM will not have order dependence on a specified set of sub-sequences. We show that this method provably eliminates order dependency, and that it can be applied to any transformer-based LLM to enable text generation that is unaffected by re-orderings. Delving into the implications of our method, we show that, despite our inputs being out of distribution, the impact on expected accuracy is small, where the expectation is over the order of uniformly chosen shuffling of the candidate responses, and usually significantly less in practice. Thus, can be used as a 'dropped-in' method on fully trained models. Finally, we discuss how our method's success suggests that other strong guarantees can be obtained on LLM performance via modifying the input representations.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

Modern Text-to-SQL systems often follow generate-execute-select pipelines, generating multiple candidate queries then selecting the best one. Listwise selection, by jointly comparing multiple candidates, has been widely adopted, but fine-tuning listwise selectors is costly. We thus propose a fine-tuning-free listwise selector. We replace two major fine-tuning objectives with inference-time strategies: (1) learning selection criteria as ordering and (2) mitigating positional bias. First, we build reusable structured memories instead of learning selection behavior as model parameters. Given a question, MaP-SQL retrieves memories distilled from training data that encode how natural language maps to schema elements, SQL operations, and expected outputs. These memories serve as explicit decision criteria for evaluating candidates in a listwise manner. Second, to mitigate ordering bias of listwise selectors, we aggregate rankings across multiple input permutations, with inference cost optimized by execution results and pointwise scoring. Our approach improves selection accuracy while maintaining efficiency and compatibility with existing large language models. Across Text-to-SQL benchmarks, it produces more stable selection without fine-tuning and fewer unnecessary comparisons than existing methods. On BIRD-dev, it outperforms the previous state-of-the-art selector-based method R^3-SQL by 2.02 execution accuracy points on average using the same candidate sets, with 2.92x fewer tokens.

Loop Engineering is emerging as a practice for organizing development work around coding agents. Instead of writing each prompt by hand, practitioners design loops that monitor progress, assign work, run checks, and decide what the agent should do next. Even with a capable coding agent, a loop may trust a stale progress note, skip needed verification, spend its budget in the wrong direction, or stop before the task is safe to submit. Yet the final outcome of one end-to-end run cannot tell whether success or failure reflects the loop's guidance or the coding agent's ability to carry out the task. We introduce LoopArena, a benchmark for evaluating how well one model can guide a separate coding agent through a long-running task. The model under evaluation is the Controller: after each coding round, it receives a structured summary of the run and instructs a separate, fixed coding agent, the Worker, on what to do or verify next, or decides whether to stop. LoopArena evaluates this ability in three complementary settings that differ in execution scope and cost. Type I scores next-step Loop Contract selection through execution-validated questions without running the Worker at evaluation time. Type II executes repeated control over a selected slice of a full task, while Type III evaluates the paired full task from its original state. On full tasks, the best observed Strict Success Rate is 24.69\%, leaving substantial room for improvement in long-horizon loop control. Across Controllers, the paired reduction in estimated inference cost averages 64.4\%, and Type II produces a similar ordering under the main Core criterion (Spearman's \(ρ=0.9747\)). We release the benchmark data and evaluation code at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/LoopArena .

We show that PLDR-LLMs pretrained at self-organized criticality exhibit reasoning at inference time. The characteristics of PLDR-LLM deductive outputs at criticality is similar to second-order phase transitions. At criticality, the correlation length diverges, and the deductive outputs attain a metastable steady state. The steady state behaviour suggests that deductive outputs learn representations equivalent to scaling functions, universality classes and renormalization groups from the training dataset, leading to generalization and reasoning capabilities in the process. We can then define an order parameter from the global statistics of the model's deductive output parameters at inference. The reasoning capabilities of a PLDR-LLM is better when its order parameter is close to zero at criticality. This observation is supported by the benchmark scores of the models trained at near-criticality and sub-criticality. Our results provide a self-contained explanation on how reasoning manifests in large language models, and the ability to reason can be quantified solely from global model parameter values of the deductive outputs at steady state, without any need for evaluation of curated benchmark datasets through inductive output for reasoning and comprehension.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

The variable stars in the VSX catalog are derived from a multitude of inhomogeneous data sources and classification tools. This inhomogeneity complicates our understanding of variable star types, statistics, and properties, and it directly affects attempts to build training sets for current (and next) generation all-sky, time-domain surveys. We homogeneously analyze the ASAS-SN V-band light curves of {sim}412,000 variables from the VSX catalog. The variables are classified using an updated random forest classifier with an F_1 score of 99.4\% and refinement criteria for individual classifications. We have derived periods for {sim}52,000 variables in the VSX catalog that lack a period, and have reclassified {sim} 17,000 sources into new broad variability groups with high confidence. We have also reclassified {sim} 94,000 known variables with miscellaneous/generic classifications. The light curves, classifications, and a range of properties of the variables are all available through the ASAS-SN variable stars database (https://asas-sn.osu.edu/variables). We also include the V-band light curves for a set of {sim}4,000 rare variables and transient sources, including cataclysmic variables, symbiotic binaries and flare stars.

Modern language models define distributions over strings, but downstream tasks often require different output formats. For instance, a model that generates byte-pair strings does not directly produce word-level predictions, and a DNA model does not directly produce amino-acid sequences. In such cases, a deterministic string-to-string transformation can convert the model's output to the desired form. This is a familiar pattern in probability theory: applying a function f to a random variable Xsim p yields a transformed random variable f(X) with an induced distribution. While such transformations are occasionally used in language modeling, prior work does not treat them as yielding new, fully functional language models. We formalize this perspective and introduce a general framework for language models derived from deterministic string-to-string transformations. We focus on transformations representable as finite-state transducers -- a commonly used state-machine abstraction for efficient string-to-string mappings. We develop algorithms that compose a language model with an FST to *marginalize* over source strings mapping to a given target, propagating probabilities through the transducer without altering model parameters and enabling *conditioning* on transformed outputs. We present an exact algorithm, an efficient approximation, and a theoretical analysis. We conduct experiments in three domains: converting language models from tokens to bytes, from tokens to words, and from DNA to amino acids. These experiments demonstrate inference-time adaptation of pretrained language models to match application-specific output requirements.

Masked diffusion language models decode by iteratively unmasking tokens, where the unmasking order defines an "order of thought" that strongly influences generation quality yet is typically chosen heuristically. We derive a tractable upper bound on the sequential decoding mismatch, measured by the Kullback-Leibler divergence and expressed in terms of the model's pathwise log-likelihood, with tightness under sufficient model expressivity. This bound induces a dense self-aware reward over ordered trajectories, casting order selection as a principled policy optimization problem with a frozen denoiser. We instantiate this idea as Self-Aware Scheduling (SAS), which learns a lightweight order policy using Group Relative Policy Optimization and applies seamlessly to both any-order and semi-autoregressive decoding. On Sudoku with 1B MDM, SAS improves puzzle accuracy from 82.0% (best heuristic schedule) to 91.8%, and reaches 97.5% with second-stage fine-tuning along learned trajectories. On mathematical reasoning with LLaDA-8B, SAS improves pass@1 on GSM8K from 64% to 76% and on MBPP from 39.5% to 41%, consistently matching or exceeding heuristic schedules across generation lengths and block sizes. Project page: https://jimmyxu123.github.io/SAS

Synthesizing SQL queries from natural language is a long-standing open problem and has been attracting considerable interest recently. Toward solving the problem, the de facto approach is to employ a sequence-to-sequence-style model. Such an approach will necessarily require the SQL queries to be serialized. Since the same SQL query may have multiple equivalent serializations, training a sequence-to-sequence-style model is sensitive to the choice from one of them. This phenomenon is documented as the "order-matters" problem. Existing state-of-the-art approaches rely on reinforcement learning to reward the decoder when it generates any of the equivalent serializations. However, we observe that the improvement from reinforcement learning is limited. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, i.e., SQLNet, to fundamentally solve this problem by avoiding the sequence-to-sequence structure when the order does not matter. In particular, we employ a sketch-based approach where the sketch contains a dependency graph so that one prediction can be done by taking into consideration only the previous predictions that it depends on. In addition, we propose a sequence-to-set model as well as the column attention mechanism to synthesize the query based on the sketch. By combining all these novel techniques, we show that SQLNet can outperform the prior art by 9% to 13% on the WikiSQL task.

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.

We study retrieval over catalogs of structured metadata, where each record is a small schema whose fields answer different kinds of query. Embedding a record with a text encoder first serializes its fields into a string, which forces a choice of field order. We show this choice, usually treated as an implementation detail, silently controls retrieval quality once the encoder is fine-tuned. A standard fine-tune loses 7.4 nDCG@10 points when the index is rebuilt under a different field order, because it reads absolute position instead of the field labels. We propose permutation-invariant fine-tuning (PI-FT), which serializes each record under a freshly sampled field order with random field dropout, so meaning binds to the labels rather than to position. The change is about two lines in the data loader; it costs negligible in-distribution accuracy and cuts the order-change penalty to 0.2 points. We study this in the discovery of development statistics, a catalog of nearly 10,000 indicators that should be searchable in many languages by a model small enough to self-host. As AI assistants and agents increasingly mediate access to public data and statistics, this retrieval step decides whether an answer is grounded in the right indicator or series, making discoverability a precondition for disseminating data through AI. Because usage logs cannot provide training signal for indicators no one has searched, we generate the queries instead. DevDataBench is a fully LLM-generated benchmark of grounded, facet-targeted queries across 15 languages, covering every indicator for both training and evaluation. A fine-tuned 118M-parameter CPU encoder outperforms every zero-shot baseline, including text-embedding-3-large (0.707 vs.\ 0.556 nDCG@10), with the largest gains in low-resource languages. We release the benchmark, pipeline, models, and a reusable PI-FT framework.

Tests that cause spurious failures without any code changes, i.e., flaky tests, hamper regression testing, increase maintenance costs, may shadow real bugs, and decrease trust in tests. While the prevalence and importance of flakiness is well established, prior research focused on Java projects, thus raising the question of how the findings generalize. In order to provide a better understanding of the role of flakiness in software development beyond Java, we empirically study the prevalence, causes, and degree of flakiness within software written in Python, one of the currently most popular programming languages. For this, we sampled 22352 open source projects from the popular PyPI package index, and analyzed their 876186 test cases for flakiness. Our investigation suggests that flakiness is equally prevalent in Python as it is in Java. The reasons, however, are different: Order dependency is a much more dominant problem in Python, causing 59% of the 7571 flaky tests in our dataset. Another 28% were caused by test infrastructure problems, which represent a previously undocumented cause of flakiness. The remaining 13% can mostly be attributed to the use of network and randomness APIs by the projects, which is indicative of the type of software commonly written in Python. Our data also suggests that finding flaky tests requires more runs than are often done in the literature: A 95% confidence that a passing test case is not flaky on average would require 170 reruns.

Natural reading orders of words are crucial for information extraction from form-like documents. Despite recent advances in Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) on modeling spatial layout patterns of documents, they have limited ability to capture reading orders of given word-level node representations in a graph. We propose Reading Order Equivariant Positional Encoding (ROPE), a new positional encoding technique designed to apprehend the sequential presentation of words in documents. ROPE generates unique reading order codes for neighboring words relative to the target word given a word-level graph connectivity. We study two fundamental document entity extraction tasks including word labeling and word grouping on the public FUNSD dataset and a large-scale payment dataset. We show that ROPE consistently improves existing GCNs with a margin up to 8.4% F1-score.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first, second, and third derivatives through automatic differentiation. we know that Spearman's rank correlation coefficient can detect the monotonic relationship between two variables. However, I have found that second-order gradients, with certain configurations and parameters, provide information that can be visualized similarly to Spearman results, In this approach, we incorporate a loss function with an activation function, resulting in a non-linear pattern. Each exploration of the loss landscape through retraining yields new valuable information. Furthermore, the first and third derivatives are also beneficial, as they indicate the extent to which independent variables influence the dependent variable.

This paper introduces SCHEDBench, a natural-language benchmark for evaluating combinatorial scheduling constraint faithfulness under surface-form variation. Grounded in canonical scheduling instances and solver-derived feasibility and optimality, SCHEDBench assesses whether large language models (LLMs) generate schedules with the same constraint-feasible behavior across varied natural-language (NL) surface forms. SCHEDBench spans 1,132 instances across job-shop scheduling problems (JSP), single and multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problems (RCPSP), nurse rostering/scheduling, and curriculum timetabling problems of varying difficulty. Instances are templated into natural language problems using domain-specific templates, themed entities, lexical-syntactic template rephrasing, and constraint-level surface-form variation, with reference solutions verified for feasibility and objective optimality. Across thirteen frontier and open-weight LLMs, we find that models are not reliably invariant to semantically equivalent renderings of the same scheduling problem. Surface-form variation reduces feasibility and induces above-noise shifts in per-instance hard-constraint violations on matched instances. Among the tested isolated axes, constraint reordering yields the clearest above-noise sensitivity.