Daily Papers

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) integrates large language models ( LLM s) with retrievers to access external knowledge, improving the factuality of LLM generation in knowledge-grounded tasks. To optimize the RAG performance, most previous work independently fine-tunes the retriever to adapt to frozen LLM s or trains the LLMs to use documents retrieved by off-the-shelf retrievers, lacking end-to-end training supervision. Recent work addresses this limitation by jointly training these two components but relies on overly simplifying assumptions of document independence, which has been criticized for being far from real-world scenarios. Thus, effectively optimizing the overall RAG performance remains a critical challenge. We propose a direct retrieval-augmented optimization framework, named DRO, that enables end-to-end training of two key components: (i) a generative knowledge selection model and (ii) an LLM generator. DRO alternates between two phases: (i) document permutation estimation and (ii) re-weighted maximization, progressively improving RAG components through a variational approach. In the estimation step, we treat document permutation as a latent variable and directly estimate its distribution from the selection model by applying an importance sampling strategy. In the maximization step, we calibrate the optimization expectation using importance weights and jointly train the selection model and LLM generator. Our theoretical analysis reveals that DRO is analogous to policy-gradient methods in reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments conducted on five datasets illustrate that DRO outperforms the best baseline with 5%-15% improvements in EM and F1. We also provide in-depth experiments to qualitatively analyze the stability, convergence, and variance of DRO.

Digital services face a fundamental trade-off in content selection: they must balance the immediate revenue gained from high-reward content against the long-term benefits of maintaining user engagement. Traditional multi-armed bandit models assume that users remain perpetually engaged, failing to capture the possibility that users may disengage when dissatisfied, thereby reducing future revenue potential. In this work, we introduce a model for the content selection problem that explicitly accounts for variable user engagement and disengagement. In our framework, content that maximizes immediate reward is not necessarily optimal in terms of fostering sustained user engagement. Our contributions are twofold. First, we develop computational and statistical methods for offline optimization and online learning of content selection policies. For users whose engagement patterns are defined by k distinct levels, we design a dynamic programming algorithm that computes the exact optimal policy in O(k^2) time. Moreover, we derive no-regret learning guarantees for an online learning setting in which the platform serves a series of users with unknown and potentially adversarial engagement patterns. Second, we introduce the concept of modified demand elasticity which captures how small changes in a user's overall satisfaction affect the platform's ability to secure long-term revenue. This notion generalizes classical demand elasticity by incorporating the dynamics of user re-engagement, thereby revealing key insights into the interplay between engagement and revenue. Notably, our analysis uncovers a counterintuitive phenomenon: although higher friction (i.e., a reduced likelihood of re-engagement) typically lowers overall revenue, it can simultaneously lead to higher user engagement under optimal content selection policies.

Recently, knowledge-grounded conversations in the open domain gain great attention from researchers. Existing works on retrieval-based dialogue systems have paid tremendous efforts to utilize neural networks to build a matching model, where all of the context and knowledge contents are used to match the response candidate with various representation methods. Actually, different parts of the context and knowledge are differentially important for recognizing the proper response candidate, as many utterances are useless due to the topic shift. Those excessive useless information in the context and knowledge can influence the matching process and leads to inferior performance. To address this problem, we propose a multi-turn Response Selection Model that can Detect the relevant parts of the Context and Knowledge collection (RSM-DCK). Our model first uses the recent context as a query to pre-select relevant parts of the context and knowledge collection at the word-level and utterance-level semantics. Further, the response candidate interacts with the selected context and knowledge collection respectively. In the end, The fused representation of the context and response candidate is utilized to post-select the relevant parts of the knowledge collection more confidently for matching. We test our proposed model on two benchmark datasets. Evaluation results indicate that our model achieves better performance than the existing methods, and can effectively detect the relevant context and knowledge for response selection.

We introduce MilkQA, a question answering dataset from the dairy domain dedicated to the study of consumer questions. The dataset contains 2,657 pairs of questions and answers, written in the Portuguese language and originally collected by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). All questions were motivated by real situations and written by thousands of authors with very different backgrounds and levels of literacy, while answers were elaborated by specialists from Embrapa's customer service. Our dataset was filtered and anonymized by three human annotators. Consumer questions are a challenging kind of question that is usually employed as a form of seeking information. Although several question answering datasets are available, most of such resources are not suitable for research on answer selection models for consumer questions. We aim to fill this gap by making MilkQA publicly available. We study the behavior of four answer selection models on MilkQA: two baseline models and two convolutional neural network archictetures. Our results show that MilkQA poses real challenges to computational models, particularly due to linguistic characteristics of its questions and to their unusually longer lengths. Only one of the experimented models gives reasonable results, at the cost of high computational requirements.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in software engineering tasks. However, improving their accuracy in generating correct and reliable code remains challenging. Numerous prompt engineering techniques (PETs) have been developed to address this, but no single approach is universally optimal. Selecting the right PET for each query is difficult for two primary reasons: (1) interactive prompting techniques may not consistently deliver the expected benefits, especially for simpler queries, and (2) current automated prompt engineering methods lack adaptability and fail to fully utilize multi-stage responses. To overcome these challenges, we propose PET-Select, a PET-agnostic selection model that uses code complexity as a proxy to classify queries and select the most appropriate PET. By incorporating contrastive learning, PET-Select effectively distinguishes between simple and complex problems, allowing it to choose PETs that are best suited for each query's complexity level. Our evaluations on the MBPP and HumanEval benchmarks using GPT-3.5 Turbo and GPT-4o show up to a 1.9% improvement in pass@1 accuracy, along with a 74.8% reduction in token usage. Additionally, we provide both quantitative and qualitative results to demonstrate how PET-Select effectively selects the most appropriate techniques for each code generation query, further showcasing its efficiency in optimizing PET selection.

In this paper, we explore the effects of language variants, data sizes, and fine-tuning task types in Arabic pre-trained language models. To do so, we build three pre-trained language models across three variants of Arabic: Modern Standard Arabic (MSA), dialectal Arabic, and classical Arabic, in addition to a fourth language model which is pre-trained on a mix of the three. We also examine the importance of pre-training data size by building additional models that are pre-trained on a scaled-down set of the MSA variant. We compare our different models to each other, as well as to eight publicly available models by fine-tuning them on five NLP tasks spanning 12 datasets. Our results suggest that the variant proximity of pre-training data to fine-tuning data is more important than the pre-training data size. We exploit this insight in defining an optimized system selection model for the studied tasks.

Answer Sentence Selection (AS2) is a core component for building an accurate Question Answering pipeline. AS2 models rank a set of candidate sentences based on how likely they answer a given question. The state of the art in AS2 exploits pre-trained transformers by transferring them on large annotated datasets, while using local contextual information around the candidate sentence. In this paper, we propose three pre-training objectives designed to mimic the downstream fine-tuning task of contextual AS2. This allows for specializing LMs when fine-tuning for contextual AS2. Our experiments on three public and two large-scale industrial datasets show that our pre-training approaches (applied to RoBERTa and ELECTRA) can improve baseline contextual AS2 accuracy by up to 8% on some datasets.

A broad range of NLP tasks involve selecting relevant text spans from given source texts. Despite this shared objective, such content selection tasks have traditionally been studied in isolation, each with its own modeling approaches, datasets, and evaluation metrics. In this work, we propose instruction-guided content selection (IGCS) as a beneficial unified framework for such settings, where the task definition and any instance-specific request are encapsulated as instructions to a language model. To promote this framework, we introduce , the first unified benchmark covering diverse content selection tasks. Further, we create a large generic synthetic dataset that can be leveraged for diverse content selection tasks, and show that transfer learning with these datasets often boosts performance, whether dedicated training for the targeted task is available or not. Finally, we address generic inference time issues that arise in LLM-based modeling of content selection, assess a generic evaluation metric, and overall propose the utility of our resources and methods for future content selection models. Models and datasets available at https://github.com/shmuelamar/igcs.

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have become one of the most important techniques in information retrieval (IR). Due to the limitation of relevance labels, the training of NRMs heavily relies on negative sampling over unlabeled data. In general machine learning scenarios, it has shown that training with hard negatives (i.e., samples that are close to positives) could lead to better performance. Surprisingly, we find opposite results from our empirical studies in IR. When sampling top-ranked results (excluding the labeled positives) as negatives from a stronger retriever, the performance of the learned NRM becomes even worse. Based on our investigation, the superficial reason is that there are more false negatives (i.e., unlabeled positives) in the top-ranked results with a stronger retriever, which may hurt the training process; The root is the existence of pooling bias in the dataset constructing process, where annotators only judge and label very few samples selected by some basic retrievers. Therefore, in principle, we can formulate the false negative issue in training NRMs as learning from labeled datasets with pooling bias. To solve this problem, we propose a novel Coupled Estimation Technique (CET) that learns both a relevance model and a selection model simultaneously to correct the pooling bias for training NRMs. Empirical results on three retrieval benchmarks show that NRMs trained with our technique can achieve significant gains on ranking effectiveness against other baseline strategies.

Post-training pipelines that combine supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with reinforcement learning (RL) have emerged as the key recipe for transforming large language models (LLMs) into robust reasoners. We argue that this combined success is driven by compositional generalization, which we formalize through a hierarchical latent selection model. In this framework, reasoning traces are generated by a cascade of discrete latent selection variables corresponding to reusable atomic modules, including both skills (local operations) and routing mechanisms (how intermediate information is selected, reused, and composed). Within this model, we theoretically show that SFT and RL play asymmetric, complementary roles: SFT supplies the raw module materials in compositional traces, and RL decomposes those traces to identify the latent atomic modules and enable compositional generalization. We design controlled experiments to validate this theory. Our results demonstrate that RL can extract atomic modules from compound traces supplied by SFT and recombine them to solve new configurations. Moreover, we find that training on compound traces yields stronger generalization than training on isolated atomic modules. Finally, we investigate the relationship between SFT and RL data and identify an effective protocol in which SFT ensures coverage of all atomic modules through compositional traces, while RL focuses on novel compositions outside the SFT support to drive exploration.

In a real-world dialogue system, generated text must be truthful and informative while remaining fluent and adhering to a prescribed style. Satisfying these constraints simultaneously is difficult for the two predominant paradigms in language generation: neural language modeling and rule-based generation. We describe a hybrid architecture for dialogue response generation that combines the strengths of both paradigms. The first component of this architecture is a rule-based content selection model defined using a new formal framework called dataflow transduction, which uses declarative rules to transduce a dialogue agent's actions and their results (represented as dataflow graphs) into context-free grammars representing the space of contextually acceptable responses. The second component is a constrained decoding procedure that uses these grammars to constrain the output of a neural language model, which selects fluent utterances. Our experiments show that this system outperforms both rule-based and learned approaches in human evaluations of fluency, relevance, and truthfulness.

While contextualized word embeddings have been a de-facto standard, learning contextualized phrase embeddings is less explored and being hindered by the lack of a human-annotated benchmark that tests machine understanding of phrase semantics given a context sentence or paragraph (instead of phrases alone). To fill this gap, we propose PiC -- a dataset of ~28K of noun phrases accompanied by their contextual Wikipedia pages and a suite of three tasks for training and evaluating phrase embeddings. Training on PiC improves ranking models' accuracy and remarkably pushes span-selection (SS) models (i.e., predicting the start and end index of the target phrase) near-human accuracy, which is 95% Exact Match (EM) on semantic search given a query phrase and a passage. Interestingly, we find evidence that such impressive performance is because the SS models learn to better capture the common meaning of a phrase regardless of its actual context. SotA models perform poorly in distinguishing two senses of the same phrase in two contexts (~60% EM) and in estimating the similarity between two different phrases in the same context (~70% EM).

Conversational search allows a user to interact with a search system in multiple turns. A query is strongly dependent on the conversation context. An effective way to improve retrieval effectiveness is to expand the current query with historical queries. However, not all the previous queries are related to, and useful for expanding the current query. In this paper, we propose a new method to select relevant historical queries that are useful for the current query. To cope with the lack of labeled training data, we use a pseudo-labeling approach to annotate useful historical queries based on their impact on the retrieval results. The pseudo-labeled data are used to train a selection model. We further propose a multi-task learning framework to jointly train the selector and the retriever during fine-tuning, allowing us to mitigate the possible inconsistency between the pseudo labels and the changed retriever. Extensive experiments on four conversational search datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and broad applicability of our method compared with several strong baselines.

The advancement of Large Language Model (LLM)-powered agents has enabled automated task processing through reasoning and tool invocation capabilities. However, existing frameworks often operate under the idealized assumption that tool executions are invariably successful, relying solely on textual descriptions that fail to distinguish precise performance boundaries and cannot adapt to iterative tool updates. This gap introduces uncertainty in planning and execution, particularly in domains like visual content generation (AIGC), where nuanced tool performance significantly impacts outcomes. To address this, we propose PerfGuard, a performance-aware agent framework for visual content generation that systematically models tool performance boundaries and integrates them into task planning and scheduling. Our framework introduces three core mechanisms: (1) Performance-Aware Selection Modeling (PASM), which replaces generic tool descriptions with a multi-dimensional scoring system based on fine-grained performance evaluations; (2) Adaptive Preference Update (APU), which dynamically optimizes tool selection by comparing theoretical rankings with actual execution rankings; and (3) Capability-Aligned Planning Optimization (CAPO), which guides the planner to generate subtasks aligned with performance-aware strategies. Experimental comparisons against state-of-the-art methods demonstrate PerfGuard's advantages in tool selection accuracy, execution reliability, and alignment with user intent, validating its robustness and practical utility for complex AIGC tasks. The project code is available at https://github.com/FelixChan9527/PerfGuard.

To tackle the challenges of large language model performance in natural language to SQL tasks, we introduce XiYan-SQL, an innovative framework that employs a multi-generator ensemble strategy to improve candidate generation. We introduce M-Schema, a semi-structured schema representation method designed to enhance the understanding of database structures. To enhance the quality and diversity of generated candidate SQL queries, XiYan-SQL integrates the significant potential of in-context learning (ICL) with the precise control of supervised fine-tuning. On one hand, we propose a series of training strategies to fine-tune models to generate high-quality candidates with diverse preferences. On the other hand, we implement the ICL approach with an example selection method based on named entity recognition to prevent overemphasis on entities. The refiner optimizes each candidate by correcting logical or syntactical errors. To address the challenge of identifying the best candidate, we fine-tune a selection model to distinguish nuances of candidate SQL queries. The experimental results on multiple dialect datasets demonstrate the robustness of XiYan-SQL in addressing challenges across different scenarios. Overall, our proposed XiYan-SQL achieves the state-of-the-art execution accuracy of 89.65% on the Spider test set, 69.86% on SQL-Eval, 41.20% on NL2GQL, and a competitive score of 72.23% on the Bird development benchmark. The proposed framework not only enhances the quality and diversity of SQL queries but also outperforms previous methods.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

Progress in Machine Learning is often driven by the availability of large datasets, and consistent evaluation metrics for comparing modeling approaches. To this end, we present a repository of conversational datasets consisting of hundreds of millions of examples, and a standardised evaluation procedure for conversational response selection models using '1-of-100 accuracy'. The repository contains scripts that allow researchers to reproduce the standard datasets, or to adapt the pre-processing and data filtering steps to their needs. We introduce and evaluate several competitive baselines for conversational response selection, whose implementations are shared in the repository, as well as a neural encoder model that is trained on the entire training set.

Neural network-based methods for abstractive summarization produce outputs that are more fluent than other techniques, but which can be poor at content selection. This work proposes a simple technique for addressing this issue: use a data-efficient content selector to over-determine phrases in a source document that should be part of the summary. We use this selector as a bottom-up attention step to constrain the model to likely phrases. We show that this approach improves the ability to compress text, while still generating fluent summaries. This two-step process is both simpler and higher performing than other end-to-end content selection models, leading to significant improvements on ROUGE for both the CNN-DM and NYT corpus. Furthermore, the content selector can be trained with as little as 1,000 sentences, making it easy to transfer a trained summarizer to a new domain.

The predominant approach to advancing text-to-image generation has been training-time scaling, where larger models are trained on more data using greater computational resources. While effective, this approach is computationally expensive, leading to growing interest in inference-time scaling to improve performance. Currently, inference-time scaling for text-to-image diffusion models is largely limited to best-of-N sampling, where multiple images are generated per prompt and a selection model chooses the best output. Inspired by the recent success of reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1 in the language domain, we introduce an alternative to naive best-of-N sampling by equipping text-to-image Diffusion Transformers with in-context reflection capabilities. We propose Reflect-DiT, a method that enables Diffusion Transformers to refine their generations using in-context examples of previously generated images alongside textual feedback describing necessary improvements. Instead of passively relying on random sampling and hoping for a better result in a future generation, Reflect-DiT explicitly tailors its generations to address specific aspects requiring enhancement. Experimental results demonstrate that Reflect-DiT improves performance on the GenEval benchmark (+0.19) using SANA-1.0-1.6B as a base model. Additionally, it achieves a new state-of-the-art score of 0.81 on GenEval while generating only 20 samples per prompt, surpassing the previous best score of 0.80, which was obtained using a significantly larger model (SANA-1.5-4.8B) with 2048 samples under the best-of-N approach.

To leverage the advantages of LLM in addressing challenges in the Text-to-SQL task, we present XiYan-SQL, an innovative framework effectively generating and utilizing multiple SQL candidates. It consists of three components: 1) a Schema Filter module filtering and obtaining multiple relevant schemas; 2) a multi-generator ensemble approach generating multiple highquality and diverse SQL queries; 3) a selection model with a candidate reorganization strategy implemented to obtain the optimal SQL query. Specifically, for the multi-generator ensemble, we employ a multi-task fine-tuning strategy to enhance the capabilities of SQL generation models for the intrinsic alignment between SQL and text, and construct multiple generation models with distinct generation styles by fine-tuning across different SQL formats. The experimental results and comprehensive analysis demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our framework. Overall, XiYan-SQL achieves a new SOTA performance of 75.63% on the notable BIRD benchmark, surpassing all previous methods. It also attains SOTA performance on the Spider test set with an accuracy of 89.65%.

A central statistical problem in population genetics is to infer evolutionary and biological parameters such as the strength of natural selection and allele age from DNA samples extracted from a contemporary population. That all samples come only from the present-day has long been known to limit statistical inference; there is potentially more information available if one also has access to ancient DNA so that inference is based on a time-series of historical changes in allele frequencies. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference from allele frequency time-series data based on an underlying Wright--Fisher diffusion model of evolution, through which one can infer the parameters of essentially any selection model including those with frequency-dependent effects. The chief novelty is that we show this method to be exact in the sense that it is possible to augment the state space explored by MCMC with the unobserved diffusion trajectory, even though the transition function of this diffusion is intractable. Through careful design of a proposal distribution, we describe an efficient method in which updates to the trajectory and accept/reject decisions are calculated without error. We illustrate the method on data capturing changes in coat colour over the past 20,000 years, and find evidence to support previous findings that the mutant alleles ASIP and MC1R responsible for changes in coat color have experienced very strong, possibly overdominant, selection and further provide estimates for the ages of these genes.

Language models are trained to implement a helpful AI Assistant character (e.g., Claude). We explore how finetuning on synthetic stories affects this character. Does it change the Assistant's behavior in multi-turn conversations with users, a format quite different from the stories? And does the Assistant adopt the behaviors and preferences of human characters? We refer to this adoption as story imprinting. We finetune GPT-4.1 and Kimi-K2.6 on stories in which generally helpful human characters give subtly harmful advice after being insulted. The Assistant adopts the same conditional behavior while otherwise remaining helpful. This occurs even when fewer than 2% of stories depict the behavior. In a separate experiment, the Assistant adopts preferences that are only implicit in the narration. A human character's body language suggests they dislike working on spreadsheets, yet they never say so and continue giving good advice on spreadsheets. After finetuning, the Assistant becomes less likely to choose spreadsheet tasks. Next we ask which characters most influence the Assistant. We find the Assistant adopts behaviors more often from characters that resemble it (e.g., helpful rather than dismissive). We call this the affinity effect. The effect extends to other personas elicited with system prompts: unhelpful personas adopt behaviors from unhelpful characters. We also observe it in finetuned base models. We use the affinity effect to learn how models represent the Assistant. We find the Assistant adopts behaviors more from characters affiliated with elite universities (e.g., Yale) than non-elite ones. This implies the model's internal representation of the Assistant is more similar to humans from elite universities. Overall, the Assistant can be influenced by stories that depict only human characters (no AIs), which may conflict with the Persona Selection Model for the Assistant.

In this study, we propose a novel graph neural network called propagate-selector (PS), which propagates information over sentences to understand information that cannot be inferred when considering sentences in isolation. First, we design a graph structure in which each node represents an individual sentence, and some pairs of nodes are selectively connected based on the text structure. Then, we develop an iterative attentive aggregation and a skip-combine method in which a node interacts with its neighborhood nodes to accumulate the necessary information. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches, we conduct experiments with the standard HotpotQA dataset. The empirical results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach, which obtains the best performances, compared to the widely used answer-selection models that do not consider the intersentential relationship.

This study explores strategies for efficiently classifying scientific full texts using both small, BERT-based models and local large language models like Llama-3.1 8B. We focus on developing methods for selecting subsets of input sentences to reduce input size while simultaneously enhancing classification performance. To this end, we compile a novel dataset consisting of full-text scientific papers from the field of invasion biology, specifically addressing the impacts of invasive species. These papers are aligned with publicly available impact assessments created by researchers for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Through extensive experimentation, we demonstrate that various sources like human evidence annotations, LLM-generated annotations or explainability scores can be used to train sentence selection models that improve the performance of both encoder- and decoder-based language models while optimizing efficiency through the reduction in input length, leading to improved results even if compared to models like ModernBERT that are able to handle the complete text as input. Additionally, we find that repeated sampling of shorter inputs proves to be a very effective strategy that, at a slightly increased cost, can further improve classification performance.

Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models. A key challenge in designing these algorithms is identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper addresses this challenge and proposes a novel framework for differentiable model selection integrating machine learning and combinatorial optimization. The framework is tailored for ensemble learning, a strategy that combines the outputs of individually pre-trained models, and learns to select appropriate ensemble members for a particular input sample by transforming the ensemble learning task into a differentiable selection program trained end-to-end within the ensemble learning model. Tested on various tasks, the proposed framework demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness, outperforming conventional and advanced consensus rules across a variety of settings and learning tasks.

Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting, traditionally requiring extensive performance evaluations across various datasets. Meta-learning approaches aim to automate this process, but they typically depend on pre-constructed performance matrices, which are costly to build. In this work, we propose to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as a lightweight alternative for model selection. Our method eliminates the need for explicit performance matrices by utilizing the inherent knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Through extensive experiments with LLaMA, GPT and Gemini, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional meta-learning techniques and heuristic baselines, while significantly reducing computational overhead. These findings underscore the potential of LLMs in efficient model selection for time series forecasting.

Offline model selection (OMS), that is, choosing the best policy from a set of many policies given only logged data, is crucial for applying offline RL in real-world settings. One idea that has been extensively explored is to select policies based on the mean squared Bellman error (MSBE) of the associated Q-functions. However, previous work has struggled to obtain adequate OMS performance with Bellman errors, leading many researchers to abandon the idea. To this end, we elucidate why previous work has seen pessimistic results with Bellman errors and identify conditions under which OMS algorithms based on Bellman errors will perform well. Moreover, we develop a new estimator of the MSBE that is more accurate than prior methods. Our estimator obtains impressive OMS performance on diverse discrete control tasks, including Atari games.

Chain-of-Thought and Program-Aided Language Models represent two distinct reasoning methods, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. We demonstrate that it is possible to combine the best of both worlds by using different models for different problems, employing a large language model (LLM) to perform model selection. Through a theoretical analysis, we discover that the performance improvement is determined by the differences between the combined methods and the success rate of choosing the correct model. On eight reasoning datasets, our proposed approach shows significant improvements. Furthermore, we achieve new state-of-the-art results on GSM8K and SVAMP with accuracies of 96.5% and 93.7%, respectively. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/XuZhao0/Model-Selection-Reasoning.

Keyphrase Generation (KPG) is a longstanding task in NLP with widespread applications. The advent of sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) pre-trained language models (PLMs) has ushered in a transformative era for KPG, yielding promising performance improvements. However, many design decisions remain unexplored and are often made arbitrarily. This paper undertakes a systematic analysis of the influence of model selection and decoding strategies on PLM-based KPG. We begin by elucidating why seq2seq PLMs are apt for KPG, anchored by an attention-driven hypothesis. We then establish that conventional wisdom for selecting seq2seq PLMs lacks depth: (1) merely increasing model size or performing task-specific adaptation is not parameter-efficient; (2) although combining in-domain pre-training with task adaptation benefits KPG, it does partially hinder generalization. Regarding decoding, we demonstrate that while greedy search achieves strong F1 scores, it lags in recall compared with sampling-based methods. Based on these insights, we propose DeSel, a likelihood-based decode-select algorithm for seq2seq PLMs. DeSel improves greedy search by an average of 4.7% semantic F1 across five datasets. Our collective findings pave the way for deeper future investigations into PLM-based KPG.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimize the distributional sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSWD) between the output of the autoencoder and the empirical data distribution. The advantages of this formulation are that we can estimate the DSWD based on samples and handle high-dimensional problems. We carry out posterior estimation of the BAE parameters via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and turn our BAE into a generative model by fitting a flexible Dirichlet mixture model in the latent space. Consequently, we obtain a powerful alternative to variational autoencoders, which are the preferred choice in modern applications of autoencoders for representation learning with uncertainty. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively using a vast experimental campaign on a number of unsupervised learning tasks and show that, in small-data regimes where priors matter, our approach provides state-of-the-art results, outperforming multiple competitive baselines.

Visual Question-Answering (VQA) has become a key use-case in several applications to aid user experience, particularly after Vision-Language Models (VLMs) achieving good results in zero-shot inference. But evaluating different VLMs for an application requirement using a standardized framework in practical settings is still challenging. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for evaluating VLMs tailored to VQA tasks in practical settings. We present a novel dataset derived from established VQA benchmarks, annotated with task types, application domains, and knowledge types, three key practical aspects on which tasks can vary. We also introduce GoEval, a multimodal evaluation metric developed using GPT-4o, achieving a correlation factor of 56.71% with human judgments. Our experiments with ten state-of-the-art VLMs reveals that no single model excelling universally, making appropriate selection a key design decision. Proprietary models such as Gemini-1.5-Pro and GPT-4o-mini generally outperform others, though open-source models like InternVL-2-8B and CogVLM-2-Llama-3-19B demonstrate competitive strengths in specific contexts, while providing additional advantages. This study guides the selection of VLMs based on specific task requirements and resource constraints, and can also be extended to other vision-language tasks.

Training deep networks and tuning hyperparameters on large datasets is computationally intensive. One of the primary research directions for efficient training is to reduce training costs by selecting well-generalizable subsets of training data. Compared to simple adaptive random subset selection baselines, existing intelligent subset selection approaches are not competitive due to the time-consuming subset selection step, which involves computing model-dependent gradients and feature embeddings and applies greedy maximization of submodular objectives. Our key insight is that removing the reliance on downstream model parameters enables subset selection as a pre-processing step and enables one to train multiple models at no additional cost. In this work, we propose MILO, a model-agnostic subset selection framework that decouples the subset selection from model training while enabling superior model convergence and performance by using an easy-to-hard curriculum. Our empirical results indicate that MILO can train models 3times - 10 times faster and tune hyperparameters 20times - 75 times faster than full-dataset training or tuning without compromising performance.

AIOps (Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations) solutions leverage the tremendous amount of data produced during the operation of large-scale systems and machine learning models to assist software practitioners in their system operations. Existing AIOps solutions usually maintain AIOps models against concept drift through periodical retraining, despite leaving a pile of discarded historical models that may perform well on specific future data. Other prior works propose dynamically selecting models for prediction tasks from a set of candidate models to optimize the model performance. However, there is no prior work in the AIOps area that assesses the use of model selection mechanisms on historical models to improve model performance or robustness. To fill the gap, we evaluate several model selection mechanisms by assessing their capabilities in selecting the optimal AIOps models that were built in the past to make predictions for the target data. We performed a case study on three large-scale public operation datasets: two trace datasets from the cloud computing platforms of Google and Alibaba, and one disk stats dataset from the BackBlaze cloud storage data center. We observe that the model selection mechnisms utilizing temporal adjacency tend to have a better performance and can prevail the periodical retraining approach. Our findings also highlight a performance gap between existing model selection mechnisms and the theoretical upper bound which may motivate future researchers and practitioners in investigating more efficient and effective model selection mechanisms that fit in the context of AIOps.

Compound AI systems that combine multiple LLM calls, such as self-refine and multi-agent-debate, achieve strong performance on many AI tasks. We address a core question in optimizing compound systems: for each LLM call or module in the system, how should one decide which LLM to use? We show that these LLM choices have a large effect on quality, but the search space is exponential. We propose LLMSelector, an efficient framework for model selection in compound systems, which leverages two key empirical insights: (i) end-to-end performance is often monotonic in how well each module performs, with all other modules held fixed, and (ii) per-module performance can be estimated accurately by an LLM. Building upon these insights, LLMSelector iteratively selects one module and allocates to it the model with the highest module-wise performance, as estimated by an LLM, until no further gain is possible. LLMSelector is applicable to any compound system with a bounded number of modules, and its number of API calls scales linearly with the number of modules, achieving high-quality model allocation both empirically and theoretically. Experiments with popular compound systems such as multi-agent debate and self-refine using LLMs such as GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet and Gemini 1.5 show that LLMSelector confers 5%-70% accuracy gains compared to using the same LLM for all modules.

Modern applications increasingly rely on inference serving systems to provide low-latency insights with a diverse set of machine learning models. Existing systems often utilize resource elasticity to scale with demand. However, many applications cannot rely on hardware scaling when deployed at the edge or other resource-constrained environments. In this work, we propose a model selection and scheduling algorithm that implements accuracy scaling to increase efficiency for these more constrained deployments. We show that existing schedulers that make decisions using profiled model accuracy are biased toward the label distribution present in the test dataset. To address this problem, we propose using ML models -- which we call SneakPeek models -- to dynamically adjust estimates of model accuracy, based on the underlying data. Furthermore, we greedily incorporate inference batching into scheduling decisions to improve throughput and avoid the overhead of swapping models in and out of GPU memory. Our approach employs a new notion of request priority, which navigates the trade-off between attaining high accuracy and satisfying deadlines. Using data and models from three real-world applications, we show that our proposed approaches result in higher-utility schedules and higher accuracy inferences in these hardware-constrained environments.

Web-based applications such as chatbots, search engines and news recommendations continue to grow in scale and complexity with the recent surge in the adoption of LLMs. Online model selection has thus garnered increasing attention due to the need to choose the best model among a diverse set while balancing task reward and exploration cost. Organizations faces decisions like whether to employ a costly API-based LLM or a locally finetuned small LLM, weighing cost against performance. Traditional selection methods often evaluate every candidate model before choosing one, which are becoming impractical given the rising costs of training and finetuning LLMs. Moreover, it is undesirable to allocate excessive resources towards exploring poor-performing models. While some recent works leverage online bandit algorithm to manage such exploration-exploitation trade-off in model selection, they tend to overlook the increasing-then-converging trend in model performances as the model is iteratively finetuned, leading to less accurate predictions and suboptimal model selections. In this paper, we propose a time-increasing bandit algorithm TI-UCB, which effectively predicts the increase of model performances due to finetuning and efficiently balances exploration and exploitation in model selection. To further capture the converging points of models, we develop a change detection mechanism by comparing consecutive increase predictions. We theoretically prove that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret upper bound in a typical increasing bandit setting, which implies a fast convergence rate. The advantage of our method is also empirically validated through extensive experiments on classification model selection and online selection of LLMs. Our results highlight the importance of utilizing increasing-then-converging pattern for more efficient and economic model selection in the deployment of LLMs.

Model selection for a given target task can be costly, as it may entail extensive annotation of the quality of outputs of different models. We introduce DiffUse, an efficient method to make an informed decision between candidate text generation models based on preference annotations. DiffUse reduces the required amount of annotations, thus saving valuable time and resources in performing evaluation. DiffUse intelligently selects instances by clustering embeddings that represent the semantic differences between model outputs. Thus, it is able to identify a subset of examples that are more informative for preference decisions. Our method is model-agnostic, and can be applied to any text generation model for selecting between models, prompts and configurations. Moreover, we propose a practical iterative approach for dynamically determining how many instances to annotate. In a series of experiments over hundreds of model pairs, we demonstrate that DiffUse can dramatically reduce the required number of annotations -- by up to 75% -- while maintaining high evaluation reliability.

Transformer models, notably large language models (LLMs), have the remarkable ability to perform in-context learning (ICL) -- to perform new tasks when prompted with unseen input-output examples without any explicit model training. In this work, we study how effectively transformers can bridge between their pretraining data mixture, comprised of multiple distinct task families, to identify and learn new tasks in-context which are both inside and outside the pretraining distribution. Building on previous work, we investigate this question in a controlled setting, where we study transformer models trained on sequences of (x, f(x)) pairs rather than natural language. Our empirical results show transformers demonstrate near-optimal unsupervised model selection capabilities, in their ability to first in-context identify different task families and in-context learn within them when the task families are well-represented in their pretraining data. However when presented with tasks or functions which are out-of-domain of their pretraining data, we demonstrate various failure modes of transformers and degradation of their generalization for even simple extrapolation tasks. Together our results highlight that the impressive ICL abilities of high-capacity sequence models may be more closely tied to the coverage of their pretraining data mixtures than inductive biases that create fundamental generalization capabilities.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications requires robust safety guard models to detect and block harmful user prompts. While large safety guard models achieve strong performance, their computational cost is substantial. To mitigate this, smaller distilled models are used, but they often underperform on "hard" examples where the larger model provides accurate predictions. We observe that many inputs can be reliably handled by the smaller model, while only a small fraction require the larger model's capacity. Motivated by this, we propose SafeRoute, a binary router that distinguishes hard examples from easy ones. Our method selectively applies the larger safety guard model to the data that the router considers hard, improving efficiency while maintaining accuracy compared to solely using the larger safety guard model. Experimental results on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our adaptive model selection significantly enhances the trade-off between computational cost and safety performance, outperforming relevant baselines.

Recent improvements in synthetic data generation make it possible to produce images that are highly photorealistic and indistinguishable from real ones. Furthermore, synthetic generation pipelines have the potential to generate an unlimited number of images. The combination of high photorealism and scale turn the synthetic data into a promising candidate for potentially improving various machine learning (ML) pipelines. Thus far, a large body of research in this field has focused on using synthetic images for training, by augmenting and enlarging training data. In contrast to using synthetic data for training, in this work we explore whether synthetic data can be beneficial for model selection. Considering the task of image classification, we demonstrate that when data is scarce, synthetic data can be used to replace the held out validation set, thus allowing to train on a larger dataset.

Multi-choice questions (MCQs) serve as a common yet important task format in the research of large language models (LLMs). Our work shows that LLMs exhibit an inherent "selection bias" in MCQs, which refers to LLMs' preferences to select options located at specific positions (like "Option C"). This bias is prevalent across various LLMs, making their performance vulnerable to option position changes in MCQs. We identify that one primary cause resulting in selection bias is option numbering, i.e., the ID symbols A/B/C/D associated with the options. To mitigate selection bias, we propose a new method called PriDe. PriDe first decomposes the observed model prediction distribution into an intrinsic prediction over option contents and a prior distribution over option IDs. It then estimates the prior by permutating option contents on a small number of test samples, which is used to debias the subsequent test samples. We demonstrate that, as a label-free, inference-time method, PriDe achieves a more effective and computation-efficient debiasing than strong baselines. We further show that the priors estimated by PriDe generalize well across different domains, highlighting its practical potential in broader scenarios.

The reasoning capabilities of LLM (Large Language Model) are widely acknowledged in recent research, inspiring studies on tool learning and autonomous agents. LLM serves as the "brain" of the agent, orchestrating multiple tools for collaborative multi-step task solving. Unlike methods invoking tools like calculators or weather APIs for straightforward tasks, multi-modal agents excel by integrating diverse AI models for complex challenges. However, current multi-modal agents neglect the significance of model selection: they primarily focus on the planning and execution phases, and will only invoke predefined task-specific models for each subtask, making the execution fragile. Meanwhile, other traditional model selection methods are either incompatible with or suboptimal for the multi-modal agent scenarios, due to ignorance of dependencies among subtasks arising by multi-step reasoning. To this end, we identify the key challenges therein and propose the M^3 framework as a plug-in with negligible runtime overhead at test-time. This framework improves model selection and bolsters the robustness of multi-modal agents in multi-step reasoning. In the absence of suitable benchmarks, we create MS-GQA, a new dataset specifically designed to investigate the model selection challenge in multi-modal agents. Our experiments reveal that our framework enables dynamic model selection, considering both user inputs and subtask dependencies, thereby robustifying the overall reasoning process. Our code and benchmark: https://github.com/LINs-lab/M3.

We introduce MODEL SELECTOR, a framework for label-efficient selection of pretrained classifiers. Given a pool of unlabeled target data, MODEL SELECTOR samples a small subset of highly informative examples for labeling, in order to efficiently identify the best pretrained model for deployment on this target dataset. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that MODEL SELECTOR drastically reduces the need for labeled data while consistently picking the best or near-best performing model. Across 18 model collections on 16 different datasets, comprising over 1,500 pretrained models, MODEL SELECTOR reduces the labeling cost by up to 94.15% to identify the best model compared to the cost of the strongest baseline. Our results further highlight the robustness of MODEL SELECTOR in model selection, as it reduces the labeling cost by up to 72.41% when selecting a near-best model, whose accuracy is only within 1% of the best model.

The widespread availability of off-the-shelf machine learning models poses a challenge: which model, of the many available candidates, should be chosen for a given data analysis task? This question of model selection is traditionally answered by collecting and annotating a validation dataset -- a costly and time-intensive process. We propose a method for active model selection, using predictions from candidate models to prioritize the labeling of test data points that efficiently differentiate the best candidate. Our method, CODA, performs consensus-driven active model selection by modeling relationships between classifiers, categories, and data points within a probabilistic framework. The framework uses the consensus and disagreement between models in the candidate pool to guide the label acquisition process, and Bayesian inference to update beliefs about which model is best as more information is collected. We validate our approach by curating a collection of 26 benchmark tasks capturing a range of model selection scenarios. CODA outperforms existing methods for active model selection significantly, reducing the annotation effort required to discover the best model by upwards of 70% compared to the previous state-of-the-art. Code and data are available at https://github.com/justinkay/coda.

Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in their favour. As sports betting is a multi-billion dollar industry in the USA alone, identifying such opportunities could be extremely lucrative. Many researchers have applied machine learning to the sports outcome prediction problem, generally using accuracy to evaluate the performance of predictive models. We hypothesise that for the sports betting problem, model calibration is more important than accuracy. To test this hypothesis, we train models on NBA data over several seasons and run betting experiments on a single season, using published odds. We show that using calibration, rather than accuracy, as the basis for model selection leads to greater returns, on average (return on investment of +34.69% versus -35.17%) and in the best case (+36.93% versus +5.56%). These findings suggest that for sports betting (or any probabilistic decision-making problem), calibration is a more important metric than accuracy. Sports bettors who wish to increase profits should therefore select their predictive model based on calibration, rather than accuracy.

Evolutionary agentic systems intensify the trade-off between computational efficiency and reasoning capability by repeatedly invoking large language models (LLMs) during inference. This setting raises a central question: how can an agent dynamically select an LLM that is sufficiently capable for the current generation step while remaining computationally efficient? While model cascades offer a practical mechanism for balancing this trade-off, existing routing strategies typically rely on static heuristics or external controllers and do not explicitly account for model uncertainty. We introduce AdaptEvolve: Adaptive LLM Selection for Multi-LLM Evolutionary Refinement within an evolutionary sequential refinement framework that leverages intrinsic generation confidence to estimate real-time solvability. Empirical results show that confidence-driven selection yields a favourable Pareto frontier, reducing total inference cost by an average of 37.9% across benchmarks while retaining 97.5% of the upper-bound accuracy of static large-model baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/raypretam/adaptive_llm_selection.

Model fusion is a key strategy for robust recognition in unconstrained scenarios, as different models provide complementary strengths. This is especially important for whole-body human recognition, where biometric cues such as face, gait, and body shape vary across samples and are typically integrated via score-fusion. However, existing score-fusion strategies are usually static, invoking all models for every test sample regardless of sample quality or modality reliability. To overcome these limitations, we propose FusionAgent, a novel agentic framework that leverages a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) to perform dynamic, sample-specific model selection. Each expert model is treated as a tool, and through Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) with a metric-based reward, the agent learns to adaptively determine the optimal model combination for each test input. To address the model score misalignment and embedding heterogeneity, we introduce Anchor-based Confidence Top-k (ACT) score-fusion, which anchors on the most confident model and integrates complementary predictions in a confidence-aware manner. Extensive experiments on multiple whole-body biometric benchmarks demonstrate that FusionAgent significantly outperforms SoTA methods while achieving higher efficiency through fewer model invocations, underscoring the critical role of dynamic, explainable, and robust model fusion in real-world recognition systems. Project page: https://fusionagent.github.io/{FusionAgent}.

Time series reasoning is essential for real-world problem-solving. While both Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can reason about time-series data, their capabilities are complementary: LLMs process time series as text sequences and thus preserve exact numerical understanding, but struggle with global patterns, whereas VLMs efficiently capture these patterns by visualizing time series but may lose fine-grained details. Moreover, models vary significantly in task-specific expertise and inference costs. Dynamically selecting the most suitable modality and model for each query is therefore crucial, yet challenging because it requires modeling the complex interactions among tasks, queries, modalities, and models, which carry rich contextual signals. To this end, we introduce TSRouter, a graph-based dynamic routing framework. TSRouter constructs a heterogeneous graph of task, query, modality, and model nodes to contextualize the interactions among query characteristics, modality attributes, and model capabilities. TSRouter formulates routing as a candidate scoring problem, where each modality-model pair is evaluated based on user-defined performance-cost preferences to select the optimal candidate. Comprehensive evaluations on 4 distinct time series reasoning tasks reveal that TSRouter substantially outperforms diverse baselines with 16\% to 46\% relative improvements. Furthermore, TSRouter demonstrates robust zero-shot plug-and-play generalization to unseen models and novel tasks and preserves high performance while reducing computational overhead through cost-aware optimization. Our code is available at https://github.com/tianyi-lab/TSRouter.

Pre-trained multi-modal vision-language models (VLMs) are becoming increasingly popular due to their exceptional performance on downstream vision applications, particularly in the few- and zero-shot settings. However, selecting the best-performing VLM for some downstream applications is non-trivial, as it is dataset and task-dependent. Meanwhile, the exhaustive evaluation of all available VLMs on a novel application is not only time and computationally demanding but also necessitates the collection of a labeled dataset for evaluation. As the number of open-source VLM variants increases, there is a need for an efficient model selection strategy that does not require access to a curated evaluation dataset. This paper proposes a novel task and benchmark for efficiently evaluating VLMs' zero-shot performance on downstream applications without access to the downstream task dataset. Specifically, we introduce a new task LOVM: Language-Only Vision Model Selection, where methods are expected to perform both model selection and performance prediction based solely on a text description of the desired downstream application. We then introduced an extensive LOVM benchmark consisting of ground-truth evaluations of 35 pre-trained VLMs and 23 datasets, where methods are expected to rank the pre-trained VLMs and predict their zero-shot performance.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

The perceptual quality of neural text-to-speech (TTS) is highly dependent on the choice of the model during training. Selecting the model using a training-objective metric such as the least mean squared error does not always correlate with human perception. In this paper, we propose an objective metric based on the phone error rate (PER) to select the TTS model with the best speech intelligibility. The PER is computed between the input text to the TTS model, and the text decoded from the synthesized speech using an automatic speech recognition (ASR) model, which is trained on the same data as the TTS model. With the help of subjective studies, we show that the TTS model chosen with the least PER on validation split has significantly higher speech intelligibility compared to the model with the least training-objective metric loss. Finally, using the proposed PER and subjective evaluation, we show that the choice of best TTS model depends on the genre of the target domain text. All our experiments are conducted on a Hindi language dataset. However, the proposed model selection method is language independent.

The measurements of the temperature and polarisation anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by the ESA Planck mission have strongly supported the current concordance model of cosmology. However, the latest cosmological data release from ESA Planck mission still has a powerful potential to test new data science algorithms and inference techniques. In this paper, we use advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as Neural Networks (NNs), to discern among different underlying cosmological models at the angular power spectra level, using both temperature and polarisation Planck 18 data. We test two different models beyond LambdaCDM: a modified gravity model: the Hu-Sawicki model, and an alternative inflationary model: a feature-template in the primordial power spectrum. Furthermore, we also implemented an interpretability method based on SHAP values to evaluate the learning process and identify the most relevant elements that drive our architecture to certain outcomes. We find that our NN is able to distinguish between different angular power spectra successfully for both alternative models and LambdaCDM. We conclude by explaining how archival scientific data has still a strong potential to test novel data science algorithms that are interesting for the next generation of cosmological experiments.

The Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) is a quantity that plays a key role in variational inference. It can also be used as a criterion in model selection. However, though extremely popular in practice in the variational Bayes community, there has never been a general theoretic justification for selecting based on the ELBO. In this paper, we show that the ELBO maximization strategy has strong theoretical guarantees, and is robust to model misspecification while most works rely on the assumption that one model is correctly specified. We illustrate our theoretical results by an application to the selection of the number of principal components in probabilistic PCA.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is essential across domains such as healthcare, cybersecurity, and industrial monitoring, yet remains fundamentally challenging due to high-dimensional dependencies, the presence of cross-correlations between time-dependent variables, and the scarcity of labeled anomalies. We introduce mTSBench, the largest benchmark to date for multivariate time series anomaly detection and model selection, consisting of 344 labeled time series across 19 datasets from a wide range of application domains. We comprehensively evaluate 24 anomaly detectors, including the only two publicly available large language model-based methods for multivariate time series. Consistent with prior findings, we observe that no single detector dominates across datasets, motivating the need for effective model selection. We benchmark three recent model selection methods and find that even the strongest of them remain far from optimal. Our results highlight the outstanding need for robust, generalizable selection strategies. We open-source the benchmark at https://plan-lab.github.io/mtsbench to encourage future research.

The rapid proliferation of large language models (LLMs) and the growing diversity of their applications presents a unique optimization opportunity: selecting the right model for the task, while optimizing for speed, cost, and quality at a per-task level. However, inference endpoints can vary widely in quality, price, latency, context support, tool use, domain expertise, and reasoning behavior. This heterogeneity makes manual heuristics difficult to maintain and unlikely to achieve consistently favorable speed--cost--quality trade-offs on their own. We introduce , a lightweight GLiClass-based router that assigns a suitability score to each inference-time model label without autoregressive generation. The released 0.6B-parameter checkpoint combines a Qwen3 decoder with a shallow bidirectional scorer. Its decoder-KV execution path preserves a text-only key--value cache across a session, encodes only new dialogue turns, and evaluates transient candidate-label tokens without adding them to the persistent cache. The same checkpoint also predicts task type, difficulty, reasoning mode, and expected output length, and supports custom zero-shot labels. For task generation, we construct a task ontology with 23 families, 115 task types, 345 routable subtypes, 1,173 synthetic examples, and an orthogonal axis of 30 domains. Using this structure, we generate 150,000 verifier-scored tasks and 15,000 open-ended tasks. We then train the Qwen3 decoder on these tasks, while explicitly separating learned request prediction from per-task policies for attributes such as eligibility, cost, cache reuse, safety, and sovereignty. Across six LiveBench subsets, the router outperforms the mean candidate; on the selected 1,000-task subset, it achieves an aggregate top-1 score of 0.707 versus 0.696 for the strongest fixed model, with benchmark-dependent gains.

The number of people living in this agricultural nation of ours, which is surrounded by lush greenery, is growing on a daily basis. As a result of this, the level of arable land is decreasing, as well as residential houses and industrial factories. The food crisis is becoming the main threat for us in the upcoming days. Because on the one hand, the population is increasing, and on the other hand, the amount of food crop production is decreasing due to the attack of diseases. Rice is one of the most significant cultivated crops since it provides food for more than half of the world's population. Bangladesh is dependent on rice (Oryza sativa) as a vital crop for its agriculture, but it faces a significant problem as a result of the ongoing decline in rice yield brought on by common diseases. Early disease detection is the main difficulty in rice crop cultivation. In this paper, we proposed our own dataset, which was collected from the Bangladesh field, and also applied deep learning and transfer learning models for the evaluation of the datasets. We elaborately explain our dataset and also give direction for further research work to serve society using this dataset. We applied a light CNN model and pre-trained InceptionNet-V2, EfficientNet-V2, and MobileNet-V2 models, which achieved 91.5% performance for the EfficientNet-V2 model of this work. The results obtained assaulted other models and even exceeded approaches that are considered to be part of the state of the art. It has been demonstrated by this study that it is possible to precisely and effectively identify diseases that affect rice leaves using this unbiased datasets. After analysis of the performance of different models, the proposed datasets are significant for the society for research work to provide solutions for decreasing rice leaf disease.

With an ever-increasing availability of data, it has become more and more challenging to select and label appropriate samples for the training of machine learning models. It is especially difficult to detect long-tail classes of interest in large amounts of unlabeled data. This holds especially true for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), where vehicle fleets and roadside perception systems generate an abundance of raw data. While industrial, proprietary data engines for such iterative data selection and model training processes exist, researchers and the open-source community suffer from a lack of an openly available system. We present the Mcity Data Engine, which provides modules for the complete data-based development cycle, beginning at the data acquisition phase and ending at the model deployment stage. The Mcity Data Engine focuses on rare and novel classes through an open-vocabulary data selection process. All code is publicly available on GitHub under an MIT license: https://github.com/mcity/mcity_data_engine

The environmental impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a significant global concern, particularly regarding model training. In this paper, we introduce GREEN (Guided Recommendations of Energy-Efficient Networks), a novel, inference-time approach for recommending Pareto-optimal AI model configurations that optimize validation performance and energy consumption across diverse AI domains and tasks. Our approach directly addresses the limitations of current eco-efficient neural architecture search methods, which are often restricted to specific architectures or tasks. Central to this work is EcoTaskSet, a dataset comprising training dynamics from over 1767 experiments across computer vision, natural language processing, and recommendation systems using both widely used and cutting-edge architectures. Leveraging this dataset and a prediction model, our approach demonstrates effectiveness in selecting the best model configuration based on user preferences. Experimental results show that our method successfully identifies energy-efficient configurations while ensuring competitive performance.

Model and hyperparameter selection are critical but challenging in machine learning, typically requiring expert intuition or expensive automated search. We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can act as in-context meta-learners for this task. By converting each dataset into interpretable metadata, we prompt an LLM to recommend both model families and hyperparameters. We study two prompting strategies: (1) a zero-shot mode relying solely on pretrained knowledge, and (2) a meta-informed mode augmented with examples of models and their performance on past tasks. Across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, we show that LLMs can exploit dataset metadata to recommend competitive models and hyperparameters without search, and that improvements from meta-informed prompting demonstrate their capacity for in-context meta-learning. These results highlight a promising new role for LLMs as lightweight, general-purpose assistants for model selection and hyperparameter optimization.

Modern machine learning algorithms are increasingly computationally demanding, requiring specialized hardware and distributed computation to achieve high performance in a reasonable time frame. Many hyperparameter search algorithms have been proposed for improving the efficiency of model selection, however their adaptation to the distributed compute environment is often ad-hoc. We propose Tune, a unified framework for model selection and training that provides a narrow-waist interface between training scripts and search algorithms. We show that this interface meets the requirements for a broad range of hyperparameter search algorithms, allows straightforward scaling of search to large clusters, and simplifies algorithm implementation. We demonstrate the implementation of several state-of-the-art hyperparameter search algorithms in Tune. Tune is available at http://ray.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tune.html.

Accurate fish detection in underwater imagery is essential for ecological monitoring, aquaculture automation, and robotic perception. However, practical deployment remains limited by fragmented datasets, heterogeneous imaging conditions, and inconsistent evaluation protocols. To address these gaps, we present FishDet-M, the largest unified benchmark for fish detection, comprising 13 publicly available datasets spanning diverse aquatic environments including marine, brackish, occluded, and aquarium scenes. All data are harmonized using COCO-style annotations with both bounding boxes and segmentation masks, enabling consistent and scalable cross-domain evaluation. We systematically benchmark 28 contemporary object detection models, covering the YOLOv8 to YOLOv12 series, R-CNN based detectors, and DETR based models. Evaluations are conducted using standard metrics including mAP, mAP@50, and mAP@75, along with scale-specific analyses (AP_S, AP_M, AP_L) and inference profiling in terms of latency and parameter count. The results highlight the varying detection performance across models trained on FishDet-M, as well as the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency across models of different architectures. To support adaptive deployment, we introduce a CLIP-based model selection framework that leverages vision-language alignment to dynamically identify the most semantically appropriate detector for each input image. This zero-shot selection strategy achieves high performance without requiring ensemble computation, offering a scalable solution for real-time applications. FishDet-M establishes a standardized and reproducible platform for evaluating object detection in complex aquatic scenes. All datasets, pretrained models, and evaluation tools are publicly available to facilitate future research in underwater computer vision and intelligent marine systems.

Federated learning is a distributed learning paradigm in which multiple mobile clients train a global model while keeping data local. These mobile clients can have various available memory and network bandwidth. However, to achieve the best global model performance, how we can utilize available memory and network bandwidth to the maximum remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose to assign each client a subset of the global model, having different layers and channels on each layer. To realize that, we design a constrained model search process with early stop to improve efficiency of finding the models from such a very large space; and a data-free knowledge distillation mechanism to improve the global model performance when aggregating models of such different structures. For fair and reproducible comparison between different solutions, we develop a new system, which can directly allocate different memory and bandwidth to each client according to memory and bandwidth logs collected on mobile devices. The evaluation shows that our solution can have accuracy increase ranging from 2.43\% to 15.81\% and provide 5\% to 40\% more memory and bandwidth utilization with negligible extra running time, comparing to existing state-of-the-art system-heterogeneous federated learning methods under different available memory and bandwidth, non-i.i.d.~datasets, image and text tasks.

Counterfactual examples are widely employed to enhance the performance and robustness of large language models (LLMs) through counterfactual data augmentation (CDA). However, the selection of the judge model used to evaluate label flipping, the primary metric for assessing the validity of generated counterfactuals for CDA, yields inconsistent results. To decipher this, we define four types of relationships between the counterfactual generator and judge models. Through extensive experiments involving two state-of-the-art LLM-based methods, three datasets, five generator models, and 15 judge models, complemented by a user study (n = 90), we demonstrate that judge models with an independent, non-fine-tuned relationship to the generator model provide the most reliable label flipping evaluations. Relationships between the generator and judge models, which are closely aligned with the user study for CDA, result in better model performance and robustness. Nevertheless, we find that the gap between the most effective judge models and the results obtained from the user study remains considerably large. This suggests that a fully automated pipeline for CDA may be inadequate and requires human intervention.

A practical approach to learning robot skills, often termed sim2real, is to train control policies in simulation and then deploy them on a real robot. Popular techniques to improve the sim2real transfer build on domain randomization (DR) -- training the policy on a diverse set of randomly generated domains with the hope of better generalization to the real world. Due to the large number of hyper-parameters in both the policy learning and DR algorithms, one often ends up with a large number of trained policies, where choosing the best policy among them demands costly evaluation on the real robot. In this work we ask - can we rank the policies without running them in the real world? Our main idea is that a predefined set of real world data can be used to evaluate all policies, using out-of-distribution detection (OOD) techniques. In a sense, this approach can be seen as a `unit test' to evaluate policies before any real world execution. However, we find that by itself, the OOD score can be inaccurate and very sensitive to the particular OOD method. Our main contribution is a simple-yet-effective policy score that combines OOD with an evaluation in simulation. We show that our score - VSDR - can significantly improve the accuracy of policy ranking without requiring additional real world data. We evaluate the effectiveness of VSDR on sim2real transfer in a robotic grasping task with image inputs. We extensively evaluate different DR parameters and OOD methods, and show that VSDR improves policy selection across the board. More importantly, our method achieves significantly better ranking, and uses significantly less data compared to baselines. Project website is available at https://sites.google.com/view/vsdr/home.

The evaluation of Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) models during their development is straightforward: because HTR is a supervised problem, the usual data split into training, validation, and test data sets allows the evaluation of models in terms of accuracy or error rates. However, the evaluation process becomes tricky as soon as we switch from development to application. A compilation of a new (and forcibly smaller) ground truth (GT) from a sample of the data that we want to apply the model on and the subsequent evaluation of models thereon only provides hints about the quality of the recognised text, as do confidence scores (if available) the models return. Moreover, if we have several models at hand, we face a model selection problem since we want to obtain the best possible result during the application phase. This calls for GT-free metrics to select the best model, which is why we (re-)introduce and compare different metrics, from simple, lexicon-based to more elaborate ones using standard language models and masked language models (MLM). We show that MLM-based evaluation can compete with lexicon-based methods, with the advantage that large and multilingual transformers are readily available, thus making compiling lexical resources for other metrics superfluous.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Transfer learning has become crucial in computer vision tasks due to the vast availability of pre-trained deep learning models. However, selecting the optimal pre-trained model from a diverse pool for a specific downstream task remains a challenge. Existing methods for measuring the transferability of pre-trained models rely on statistical correlations between encoded static features and task labels, but they overlook the impact of underlying representation dynamics during fine-tuning, leading to unreliable results, especially for self-supervised models. In this paper, we present an insightful physics-inspired approach named PED to address these challenges. We reframe the challenge of model selection through the lens of potential energy and directly model the interaction forces that influence fine-tuning dynamics. By capturing the motion of dynamic representations to decline the potential energy within a force-driven physical model, we can acquire an enhanced and more stable observation for estimating transferability. The experimental results on 10 downstream tasks and 12 self-supervised models demonstrate that our approach can seamlessly integrate into existing ranking techniques and enhance their performances, revealing its effectiveness for the model selection task and its potential for understanding the mechanism in transfer learning. Code will be available at https://github.com/lixiaotong97/PED.

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal hyper-parameters during an iterative sequential process. However, most of the Bayesian Optimization algorithms are designed to select models for effectiveness only and ignore the important issue of model training efficiency. Given that both model effectiveness and training time are important for real-world applications, models selected for effectiveness may not meet the strict training time requirements necessary to deploy in a production environment. In this work, we present a unified Bayesian Optimization framework for jointly optimizing models for both prediction effectiveness and training efficiency. We propose an objective that captures the tradeoff between these two metrics and demonstrate how we can jointly optimize them in a principled Bayesian Optimization framework. Experiments on model selection for recommendation tasks indicate models selected this way significantly improves model training efficiency while maintaining strong effectiveness as compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian Optimization algorithms.

This work uniquely identifies and characterizes four prevalent multimodal model architectural patterns in the contemporary multimodal landscape. Systematically categorizing models by architecture type facilitates monitoring of developments in the multimodal domain. Distinct from recent survey papers that present general information on multimodal architectures, this research conducts a comprehensive exploration of architectural details and identifies four specific architectural types. The types are distinguished by their respective methodologies for integrating multimodal inputs into the deep neural network model. The first two types (Type A and B) deeply fuses multimodal inputs within the internal layers of the model, whereas the following two types (Type C and D) facilitate early fusion at the input stage. Type-A employs standard cross-attention, whereas Type-B utilizes custom-designed layers for modality fusion within the internal layers. On the other hand, Type-C utilizes modality-specific encoders, while Type-D leverages tokenizers to process the modalities at the model's input stage. The identified architecture types aid the monitoring of any-to-any multimodal model development. Notably, Type-C and Type-D are currently favored in the construction of any-to-any multimodal models. Type-C, distinguished by its non-tokenizing multimodal model architecture, is emerging as a viable alternative to Type-D, which utilizes input-tokenizing techniques. To assist in model selection, this work highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each architecture type based on data and compute requirements, architecture complexity, scalability, simplification of adding modalities, training objectives, and any-to-any multimodal generation capability.

The article presents and evaluates a custom loss function designed specifically for machine learning models used in algorithmic trading. Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity, the proposed Generalized Mean Absolute Directional Loss (GMADL) function produces superior results and has better numerical properties during optimization than classic regression and classification based loss functions. Better results correspond to higher risk-weighted returns based on buy and sell signals derived from forecasts generated by models trained using GMADL. In practice, GMADL improves model evaluation by aligning the learning objective with trading performance rather than generic error minimization or simple directional accuracy. Through additional parameterization, GMADL provides a flexible mechanism for adjusting the loss's sensitivity to different return magnitudes, which affects model evaluation consistency across various market regimes. This improves the selection of model configurations that are more consistent with performance-based criteria. Moreover, the implementation uses robust machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, to provide robust and scalable model evaluation across real-world financial data from different asset classes.

Foundation multi-modal models are often designed by stitching of multiple existing pretrained uni-modal models: for example, an image classifier with an text model. This stitching process is performed by training a connector module that aims to align the representation spaces of these uni-modal models towards a multi-modal objective. However, given the complexity of training such connectors on large scale web-based datasets coupled with the ever-increasing number of available pretrained uni-modal models, the task of uni-modal models selection and subsequent connector module training becomes computationally demanding. To address this under-studied critical problem, we propose Hypernetwork Model Alignment (Hyma), a novel all-in-one solution for optimal uni-modal model selection and connector training by leveraging hypernetworks. Specifically, our framework utilizes the parameter prediction capability of a hypernetwork to obtain jointly trained connector modules for N times M combinations of uni-modal models. In our experiments, Hyma reduces the cost of searching for the best performing uni-modal model pair by 10times, while matching the ranking and trained connector performance obtained via grid search across a suite of diverse multi-modal benchmarks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code understanding and generation; however, their effectiveness on non-code Software Engineering (SE) tasks remains underexplored. We present the first comprehensive benchmark, which we name `Software Engineering Language Understanding' (SELU), for evaluating LLMs on 17 non-code tasks, spanning from identifying whether a requirement is functional or non-functional to estimating the effort and complexity of backlog items. SELU covers classification, regression, Named Entity Recognition (NER), and Masked Language Modeling (MLM) targets, with data drawn from diverse sources such as code repositories, issue tracking systems, and developer forums. We fine-tune 22 open-source LLMs, prompt two proprietary alternatives, and train two baselines. Performance is measured using metrics such as F1-macro, SMAPE, F1-micro, and accuracy, and compared via the Bayesian signed-rank test. Our results show that moderate-scale decoder-only models consistently form a top-tier, exhibiting high mean performance and low across-task variance, while domain adaptation via code-focused pre-training might yield only modest improvements. These insights guide model selection for non-code SE workflows and highlight directions for expanding SELU to generative and design-oriented scenarios.

Speculative decoding is widely used in accelerating large language model (LLM) inference. In this work, we focus on the online draft model selection problem in speculative decoding. We design an algorithm that provably competes with the best draft model in hindsight for each query in terms of either the token acceptance probability or expected acceptance length. In particular, we show that we can accurately evaluate all draft models, instead of only the chosen model without incurring additional queries to the target model, which allows us to improve exponentially over the existing bandit-based approach as the number of draft models increases. Our approach is generically applicable with any speculative decoding methods (single draft, multi-drafts and draft-trees). Moreover, we design system-efficient versions of online learners and demonstrate that the overhead in computation and latency can be substantially reduced. We conduct extensive experiments on open-source LLMs and diverse datasets, demonstrating that our methods substantially outperform the state-of-the-art EAGLE3 and the BanditSpec baseline in a variety of domains where specialized domain-expert drafters are available, especially when long reasoning chains are required.

Adapting general-purpose large language models to specific tasks requires substantial human effort in designing data and training strategies. Sustaining improvement is especially challenging because model updates change the error distribution, requiring strategies to be continually refined. We introduce ImproveAnyTask, an autonomous post-training harness that improves task performance under a limited compute budget. Drawing inspiration from gradient-based parameter optimization, the harness organizes adaptation into error attribution, update-direction selection, and executable model updates. It combines metric-level and case-level analysis to identify a focal problem, then investigates research-backed strategies and compares their reported gains and reproduction difficulty. The selected strategy is translated into training data and a training configuration, with small-scale execution checks preceding full post-training. Subsequent evaluation guides model selection and further adaptation, while validated strategies and scripts are retained for reuse. Across 11 tasks, ImproveAnyTask achieves mean gains of 18.29 and 11.97 percentage points on the Base and Instruct models, respectively, with a maximum gain of 41.96 points, under a 24-hour budget with resources equivalent to eight H20 GPUs.

Pretrained language models (LMs) perform well on many tasks even when learning from a few examples, but prior work uses many held-out examples to tune various aspects of learning, such as hyperparameters, training objectives, and natural language templates ("prompts"). Here, we evaluate the few-shot ability of LMs when such held-out examples are unavailable, a setting we call true few-shot learning. We test two model selection criteria, cross-validation and minimum description length, for choosing LM prompts and hyperparameters in the true few-shot setting. On average, both marginally outperform random selection and greatly underperform selection based on held-out examples. Moreover, selection criteria often prefer models that perform significantly worse than randomly-selected ones. We find similar results even when taking into account our uncertainty in a model's true performance during selection, as well as when varying the amount of computation and number of examples used for selection. Overall, our findings suggest that prior work significantly overestimated the true few-shot ability of LMs given the difficulty of few-shot model selection.

In modern ML Ops environments, model deployment is a critical process that traditionally relies on static heuristics such as validation error comparisons and A/B testing. However, these methods require human intervention to adapt to real-world deployment challenges, such as model drift or unexpected performance degradation. We investigate whether reinforcement learning, specifically multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms, can dynamically manage model deployment decisions more effectively. Our approach enables more adaptive production environments by continuously evaluating deployed models and rolling back underperforming ones in real-time. We test six model selection strategies across two real-world datasets and find that RL based approaches match or exceed traditional methods in performance. Our findings suggest that reinforcement learning (RL)-based model management can improve automation, reduce reliance on manual interventions, and mitigate risks associated with post-deployment model failures.

This paper investigates data selection and model merging methodologies aimed at incorporating advanced reasoning capabilities such as those of DeepSeek R1 into language-specific large language models (LLMs), with a particular focus on the Thai LLM. Our goal is to enhance the reasoning capabilities of language-specific LLMs while maintaining their target language abilities. DeepSeek R1 excels in reasoning but primarily benefits high-resource languages such as English and Chinese. However, low-resource languages remain underserved due to the dominance of English-centric training data and model optimizations, which limit performance in these languages. This limitation results in unreliable code-switching and diminished effectiveness on tasks in low-resource languages. Meanwhile, local and regional LLM initiatives have attempted to bridge this gap by developing language-specific LLMs that focus on improving local linguistic fidelity. We demonstrate that, with only publicly available datasets and a computational budget of $120, it is possible to enhance the reasoning capabilities of language-specific LLMs to match the level of DeepSeek R1, without compromising their performance on target language tasks.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Knowledge distillation~(KD) has been proved effective for compressing large-scale pre-trained language models. However, existing methods conduct KD statically, e.g., the student model aligns its output distribution to that of a selected teacher model on the pre-defined training dataset. In this paper, we explore whether a dynamic knowledge distillation that empowers the student to adjust the learning procedure according to its competency, regarding the student performance and learning efficiency. We explore the dynamical adjustments on three aspects: teacher model adoption, data selection, and KD objective adaptation. Experimental results show that (1) proper selection of teacher model can boost the performance of student model; (2) conducting KD with 10% informative instances achieves comparable performance while greatly accelerates the training; (3) the student performance can be boosted by adjusting the supervision contribution of different alignment objective. We find dynamic knowledge distillation is promising and provide discussions on potential future directions towards more efficient KD methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/lancopku/DynamicKD.

While multi-agent systems (MAS) have demonstrated superior performance over single-agent approaches in complex reasoning tasks, they often suffer from significant computational inefficiencies. Existing frameworks typically deploy large language models (LLMs) uniformly across all agent roles, failing to account for the varying cognitive demands of different reasoning stages. We address this inefficiency by proposing OI-MAS framework, a novel multi-agent framework that implements an adaptive model-selection policy across a heterogeneous pool of multi-scale LLMs. Specifically, OI-MAS introduces a state-dependent routing mechanism that dynamically selects agent roles and model scales throughout the reasoning process. In addition, we introduce a confidence-aware mechanism that selects appropriate model scales conditioned on task complexity, thus reducing unnecessary reliance on large-scale models. Experimental results show that OI-MAS consistently outperforms baseline multi-agent systems, improving accuracy by up to 12.88\% while reducing cost by up to 79.78\%.

Single-cell and spatial foundation models promise transferable biological representations, yet their generality remains largely untested across modalities, biological domains and analytical tasks. We benchmarked six representative models, Nicheformer, CellPLM, scGPT-spatial, GenePT, scELMo and Novae, using a harmonised framework spanning scRNA-seq, spatial transcriptomics and Perturb-seq. We evaluated zero-shot and continually pretrained clustering, supervised annotation, marker-gene concordance and perturbation prediction. Model performance was strongly conditional: expression-trained cell-level transformers best resolved many cell-identity tasks, spatial and graph-aware models better preserved tissue architecture, and language-derived gene embeddings were competitive for selected perturbation-response metrics. No model dominated across tasks, and rankings shifted with modality, preprocessing, tokenisation, biological prior, domain shift and metric choice. This benchmark provides practical guidance for model selection and argues that future models should be judged by biological generalisation, interpretability and perturbation-grounded validity, not by scale or leaderboard performance alone.

Diffusion models have made tremendous progress in text-driven image and video generation. Now text-to-image foundation models are widely applied to various downstream image synthesis tasks, such as controllable image generation and image editing, while downstream video synthesis tasks are less explored for several reasons. First, it requires huge memory and compute overhead to train a video generation foundation model. Even with video foundation models, additional costly training is still required for downstream video synthesis tasks. Second, although some works extend image diffusion models into videos in a training-free manner, temporal consistency cannot be well kept. Finally, these adaption methods are specifically designed for one task and fail to generalize to different downstream video synthesis tasks. To mitigate these issues, we propose a training-free general-purpose video synthesis framework, coined as BIVDiff, via bridging specific image diffusion models and general text-to-video foundation diffusion models. Specifically, we first use an image diffusion model (like ControlNet, Instruct Pix2Pix) for frame-wise video generation, then perform Mixed Inversion on the generated video, and finally input the inverted latents into the video diffusion model for temporal smoothing. Decoupling image and video models enables flexible image model selection for different purposes, which endows the framework with strong task generalization and high efficiency. To validate the effectiveness and general use of BIVDiff, we perform a wide range of video generation tasks, including controllable video generation video editing, video inpainting and outpainting. Our project page is available at https://bivdiff.github.io.

Recent advancements in large language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various NLP tasks. But many questions remain, including whether open-source models match closed ones, why these models excel or struggle with certain tasks, and what types of practical procedures can improve performance. We address these questions in the context of classification by evaluating three classes of models using eight datasets across three distinct tasks: named entity recognition, political party prediction, and misinformation detection. While larger LLMs often lead to improved performance, open-source models can rival their closed-source counterparts by fine-tuning. Moreover, supervised smaller models, like RoBERTa, can achieve similar or even greater performance in many datasets compared to generative LLMs. On the other hand, closed models maintain an advantage in hard tasks that demand the most generalizability. This study underscores the importance of model selection based on task requirements

We describe our team's contribution to the STRICT-SMALL track of the BabyLM Challenge. The challenge requires training a language model from scratch using only a relatively small training dataset of ten million words. We experiment with three variants of cognitively-motivated curriculum learning and analyze their effect on the performance of the model on linguistic evaluation tasks. In the vocabulary curriculum, we analyze methods for constraining the vocabulary in the early stages of training to simulate cognitively more plausible learning curves. In the data curriculum experiments, we vary the order of the training instances based on i) infant-inspired expectations and ii) the learning behavior of the model. In the objective curriculum, we explore different variations of combining the conventional masked language modeling task with a more coarse-grained word class prediction task to reinforce linguistic generalization capabilities. Our results did not yield consistent improvements over our own non-curriculum learning baseline across a range of linguistic benchmarks; however, we do find marginal gains on select tasks. Our analysis highlights key takeaways for specific combinations of tasks and settings which benefit from our proposed curricula. We moreover determine that careful selection of model architecture, and training hyper-parameters yield substantial improvements over the default baselines provided by the BabyLM challenge.

The proliferation of open-sourced Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse downstream tasks necessitates efficient model selection, given the impracticality of fine-tuning all candidates due to computational constraints. Despite the recent advances in LLM selection, a fundamental research question largely remains nascent: how can we model the dynamic behaviors of LLMs during fine-tuning, thereby enhancing our understanding of their generalization performance across diverse downstream tasks? In this work, we propose a novel theoretical framework that provides a proper lens to assess the generalization capabilities of LLMs, thereby enabling accurate and efficient LLM selection for downstream applications. In particular, we first derive a Hessian-based PAC-Bayes generalization bound that unveils fine-tuning dynamics of LLMs and then introduce LENSLLM, a Neural Tangent Kernel(NTK)-based Rectified Scaling Model that enables accurate performance predictions across diverse tasks while maintaining computational efficiency. Extensive empirical results on 3 large-scale benchmarks demonstrate that our model achieves up to 91.1% accuracy and reduces up to 88.5% computational cost in LLM selection, outperforming 5 state-of-the-art methods. We open-source our proposed LENSLLM model and corresponding results at the Github link: https://github.com/Susan571/LENSLLM.git.

Scaling laws are powerful tools to predict the performance of large language models. However, current scaling laws fall short of accounting for inference costs. In this work, we first show that model architecture affects inference latency, where models of the same size can have up to 3.5x difference in latency. To tackle this challenge, we modify the Chinchilla scaling laws to co-optimize the model parameter count, the number of training tokens, and the model architecture. Due to the reason that models of similar training loss exhibit gaps in downstream evaluation, we also propose a novel method to train inference-efficient models based on the revised scaling laws. We perform extensive empirical studies to fit and evaluate our inference-aware scaling laws. We vary model parameters from 80M to 1B, training tokens from 1.6B to 30B, and model shapes, training a total of 63 models. Guided by our inference-efficient scaling law and model selection method, we release the Morph-1B model, which improves inference latency by 1.8x while maintaining accuracy on downstream tasks compared to open-source models, pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy-latency tradeoff.

This paper explores the use of large language models (LLMs) as research tools in the history, philosophy, and sociology of science (HPSS). LLMs are remarkably effective at processing unstructured text and inferring meaning from context, offering new affordances that challenge long-standing divides between computational and interpretive methods. This raises both opportunities and challenges for HPSS, which emphasizes interpretive methodologies and understands meaning as context-dependent, ambiguous, and historically situated. We argue that HPSS is uniquely positioned not only to benefit from LLMs' capabilities but also to interrogate their epistemic assumptions and infrastructural implications. To this end, we first offer a concise primer on LLM architectures and training paradigms tailored to non-technical readers. We frame LLMs not as neutral tools but as epistemic infrastructures that encode assumptions about meaning, context, and similarity, conditioned by their training data, architecture, and patterns of use. We then examine how computational techniques enhanced by LLMs, such as structuring data, detecting patterns, and modeling dynamic processes, can be applied to support interpretive research in HPSS. Our analysis compares full-context and generative models, outlines strategies for domain and task adaptation (e.g., continued pretraining, fine-tuning, and retrieval-augmented generation), and evaluates their respective strengths and limitations for interpretive inquiry in HPSS. We conclude with four lessons for integrating LLMs into HPSS: (1) model selection involves interpretive trade-offs; (2) LLM literacy is foundational; (3) HPSS must define its own benchmarks and corpora; and (4) LLMs should enhance, not replace, interpretive methods.

Synthesizing supervised finetuning (SFT) data from language models (LMs) to teach smaller models multilingual tasks has become increasingly common. However, teacher model selection is often ad hoc, typically defaulting to the largest available option, even though such models may have significant capability gaps in non-English languages. This practice can result in poor-quality synthetic data and suboptimal student downstream performance. In this work, we systematically characterize what makes an effective multilingual teacher. We measure intrinsic measures of data quality with extrinsic student model performance in a metric we call Polyglot Score; evaluating 10 LMs across 6 typologically diverse languages, generating over 1.4M SFT examples and training 240 student models. Among the models tested, Gemma 3 27B and Aya Expanse 32B emerge as consistently effective teachers across different student base model families. Further analyses reveal that model scale alone does not significantly predict teacher effectiveness; instead, data qualities such as prompt diversity, length, and response fluency capture over 93.3% of variance in intrinsic data quality and predict student performance. Finally, we provide practical recommendations, including matching the model families of teacher-student pairs and translating from or responding to existing prompts, which can yield improvements for less-resourced languages. We hope that our work advances data-centric research in multilingual synthetic data and LM development.

Generative language models (LMs) have become omnipresent across data science. For a wide variety of tasks, inputs can be phrased as natural language prompts for an LM, from whose output the solution can then be extracted. LM performance has consistently been increasing with model size - but so has the monetary cost of querying the ever larger models. Importantly, however, not all inputs are equally hard: some require larger LMs for obtaining a satisfactory solution, whereas for others smaller LMs suffice. Based on this fact, we design a framework for cost-effective language model choice, called "Fly-swat or cannon" (FORC). Given a set of inputs and a set of candidate LMs, FORC judiciously assigns each input to an LM predicted to do well on the input according to a so-called meta-model, aiming to achieve high overall performance at low cost. The cost-performance tradeoff can be flexibly tuned by the user. Options include, among others, maximizing total expected performance (or the number of processed inputs) while staying within a given cost budget, or minimizing total cost while processing all inputs. We evaluate FORC on 14 datasets covering five natural language tasks, using four candidate LMs of vastly different size and cost. With FORC, we match the performance of the largest available LM while achieving a cost reduction of 63%. Via our publicly available library, researchers as well as practitioners can thus save large amounts of money without sacrificing performance.

Foundation models tokenize Ukrainian legal text with vastly different efficiency, yet no systematic comparison exists for this domain. We benchmark seven models from five providers on 273 validated court decisions from Ukraine's state registry (EDRSR), measuring tokenizer fertility and zero-shot performance on three tasks. Three findings emerge. (1) Tokenizer fertility varies 1.6x: Qwen3 models consume 60% more tokens than Llama-family models on identical input, directly reducing API cost. (2) NVIDIA Nemotron Super 3 (120B) achieves the highest composite score (83.1), outperforming Mistral Large 3 (675B total, 41B active) -- a model with 5.6x more total parameters and 3.4x more active parameters per token -- at one-third the API cost. (3) Few-shot prompting degrades performance by up to 26 percentage points; stratified and prompt-sensitivity ablations confirm this is intrinsic to Ukrainian-language demonstrations, not an artifact of example selection. For practitioners: tokenizer analysis should precede model selection, and zero-shot is a more reliable default than few-shot for morphologically rich languages.

Given the increasing use of synthetic data in language model (LM) post-training, an LM's ability to generate high-quality data has become nearly as crucial as its ability to solve problems directly. While prior works have focused on developing effective data generation methods, they lack systematic comparison of different LMs as data generators in a unified setting. To address this gap, we propose AgoraBench, a benchmark that provides standardized settings and metrics to evaluate LMs' data generation abilities. Through synthesizing 1.26 million training instances using 6 LMs and training 99 student models, we uncover key insights about LMs' data generation capabilities. First, we observe that LMs exhibit distinct strengths. For instance, GPT-4o excels at generating new problems, while Claude-3.5-Sonnet performs better at enhancing existing ones. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that an LM's data generation ability doesn't necessarily correlate with its problem-solving ability. Instead, multiple intrinsic features of data quality-including response quality, perplexity, and instruction difficulty-collectively serve as better indicators. Finally, we demonstrate that strategic choices in output format and cost-conscious model selection significantly impact data generation effectiveness.

Large language models (LLMs) hold great promise in summarizing medical evidence. Most recent studies focus on the application of proprietary LLMs. Using proprietary LLMs introduces multiple risk factors, including a lack of transparency and vendor dependency. While open-source LLMs allow better transparency and customization, their performance falls short compared to proprietary ones. In this study, we investigated to what extent fine-tuning open-source LLMs can further improve their performance in summarizing medical evidence. Utilizing a benchmark dataset, MedReview, consisting of 8,161 pairs of systematic reviews and summaries, we fine-tuned three broadly-used, open-sourced LLMs, namely PRIMERA, LongT5, and Llama-2. Overall, the fine-tuned LLMs obtained an increase of 9.89 in ROUGE-L (95% confidence interval: 8.94-10.81), 13.21 in METEOR score (95% confidence interval: 12.05-14.37), and 15.82 in CHRF score (95% confidence interval: 13.89-16.44). The performance of fine-tuned LongT5 is close to GPT-3.5 with zero-shot settings. Furthermore, smaller fine-tuned models sometimes even demonstrated superior performance compared to larger zero-shot models. The above trends of improvement were also manifested in both human and GPT4-simulated evaluations. Our results can be applied to guide model selection for tasks demanding particular domain knowledge, such as medical evidence summarization.

Wildlife populations in Africa face severe threats, with vertebrate numbers declining by over 65% in the past five decades. In response, image classification using deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for biodiversity monitoring and conservation. This paper presents a comparative study of deep learning models for automatically classifying African wildlife images, focusing on transfer learning with frozen feature extractors. Using a public dataset of four species: buffalo, elephant, rhinoceros, and zebra; we evaluate the performance of DenseNet-201, ResNet-152, EfficientNet-B4, and Vision Transformer ViT-H/14. DenseNet-201 achieved the best performance among convolutional networks (67% accuracy), while ViT-H/14 achieved the highest overall accuracy (99%), but with significantly higher computational cost, raising deployment concerns. Our experiments highlight the trade-offs between accuracy, resource requirements, and deployability. The best-performing CNN (DenseNet-201) was integrated into a Hugging Face Gradio Space for real-time field use, demonstrating the feasibility of deploying lightweight models in conservation settings. This work contributes to African-grounded AI research by offering practical insights into model selection, dataset preparation, and responsible deployment of deep learning tools for wildlife conservation.

Outlier detection (OD) has a vast literature as it finds numerous real-world applications. Being an unsupervised task, model selection is a key bottleneck for OD without label supervision. Despite a long list of available OD algorithms with tunable hyperparameters, the lack of systematic approaches for unsupervised algorithm and hyperparameter selection limits their effective use in practice. In this paper, we present FoMo-0D, a pre-trained Foundation Model for zero/0-shot OD on tabular data, which bypasses the hurdle of model selection altogether. Having been pre-trained on synthetic data, FoMo-0D can directly predict the (outlier/inlier) label of test samples without parameter fine-tuning -- requiring no labeled data, and no additional training or hyperparameter tuning when given a new task. Extensive experiments on 57 real-world datasets against 26 baselines show that FoMo-0D is highly competitive; outperforming the majority of the baselines with no statistically significant difference from the 2nd best method. Further, FoMo-0D is efficient in inference time requiring only 7.7 ms per sample on average, with at least 7x speed-up compared to previous methods. To facilitate future research, our implementations for data synthesis and pre-training as well as model checkpoints are openly available at https://github.com/A-Chicharito-S/FoMo-0D.

The advent of large language models has ushered in a new era of agentic systems, where artificial intelligence programs exhibit remarkable autonomous decision-making capabilities across diverse domains. This paper explores agentic system workflows in the financial services industry. In particular, we build agentic crews with human-in-the-loop module that can effectively collaborate to perform complex modeling and model risk management (MRM) tasks. The modeling crew consists of a judge agent and multiple agents who perform specific tasks such as exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, model selection/hyperparameter tuning, model training, model evaluation, and writing documentation. The MRM crew consists of a judge agent along with specialized agents who perform tasks such as checking compliance of modeling documentation, model replication, conceptual soundness, analysis of outcomes, and writing documentation. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of modeling and MRM crews by presenting a series of numerical examples applied to credit card fraud detection, credit card approval, and portfolio credit risk modeling datasets.

The rapid growth of large language models (LLMs) with diverse capabilities, costs, and domains has created a critical need for intelligent model selection at inference time. While smaller models suffice for routine queries, complex tasks demand more capable models. However, static model deployment does not account for the complexity and domain of incoming queries, leading to suboptimal performance and increased costs. Dynamic routing systems that adaptively select models based on query characteristics have emerged as a solution to this challenge. We provide a systematic analysis of state-of-the-art multi-LLM routing and cascading approaches. In contrast to mixture-of-experts architectures, which route within a single model, we study routing across multiple independently trained LLMs. We cover diverse routing paradigms, including query difficulty, human preferences, clustering, uncertainty quantification, reinforcement learning, multimodality, and cascading. For each paradigm, we analyze representative methods and examine key trade-offs. Beyond taxonomy, we introduce a conceptual framework that characterizes routing systems along three dimensions: when decisions are made, what information is used, and how they are computed. This perspective highlights that practical systems are often compositional, integrating multiple paradigms under operational constraints. Our analysis demonstrates that effective multi-LLM routing requires balancing competing objectives. Choosing the optimal routing strategy depends on deployment and computational constraints. Well-designed routing systems can outperform even the most powerful individual models by strategically leveraging specialized capabilities across models while maximizing efficiency gains. Meanwhile, open challenges remain in developing routing mechanisms that generalize across diverse architectures, modalities, and applications.

The performance of Language Models (LMs) on low-resource, morphologically rich languages like Sinhala remains largely unexplored, particularly regarding script variation in digital communication. Sinhala exhibits script duality, with Unicode used in formal contexts and Romanized text dominating social media, while mixed-script usage is common in practice. This paper benchmarks 24 open-source LMs on Unicode, Romanized and mixed-script Sinhala using perplexity evaluation across diverse text sources. Results reveal substantial script sensitivity, with median performance degradation exceeding 300 times from Unicode to Romanized text. Critically, model size shows no correlation with script-handling competence, as smaller models often outperform architectures 28 times larger. Unicode performance strongly predicts mixed-script robustness but not Romanized capability, demonstrating that single-script evaluation substantially underestimates real-world deployment challenges. These findings establish baseline LM capabilities for Sinhala and provide practical guidance for model selection in multi-script low-resource environments.

While previous research in multivariate time series forecasting has focused on developing complex holistic models, this work advocates for a shift toward a granular, component-level understanding of their impacts. We propose TSCOMP, the first large-scale benchmark that systematically deconstructs deep forecasting methods into their core, fine-grained components--spanning series preprocessing, encoding strategies, network architectures including specific and large time-series models, and optimization methods. Using constrained orthogonal experimental design and extensive evaluations, we conduct multi-view analyses that reveal component effectiveness across different backbones, data characteristics, and their interactions. Beyond providing insights, this benchmark establishes a fine-grained performance corpus comprising over 20,000 model-dataset evaluations, which supports the learning of automated component selection, enabling zero-shot model construction on new datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that the corpus-driven approach, despite its simplicity, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, validating the soundness of our evaluation design and confirming that systematic component selection surpasses manually designed complex architectures. All code and the performance corpus are publicly available at https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSCOMP.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable reasoning capabilities, yet their stateless architecture fundamentally limits deployment in long-horizon research workflows requiring multi-session continuity and quantitative rigor. Here we present Ensemble QSP, a multi-agent framework featuring a three-layer hierarchical memory architecture that keeps injected context bounded and constant in project duration (mid-term project state: median 301 tokens, max 4,050, across 104 runs) by capping each state category and evicting completed work, enabling continuous autonomous operation without context degradation. The system orchestrates five specialist worker agents under domain-expert principal investigators, enforcing physical constraints through physics-based checklists and structured-domain knowledge. Comprehensive benchmarking demonstrates robust autonomous pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model selection without human intervention, consistent result quality across both lower-cost and frontier LLMs, improved PK parameter recovery relative to single-agent baselines, and stable model selection across linguistically diverse prompts of the same task. Feature-level ablation across physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models spanning a broad complexity range shows that PI-agent oversight improves debugging efficiency while preserving final accuracy across conditions. The architecture is structurally domain-agnostic, adding a new scientific domain requires only a new PI agent configuration.

DevBench is a telemetry-driven benchmark designed to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) on realistic code completion tasks. It includes 1,800 evaluation instances across six programming languages and six task categories derived from real developer telemetry and synthesized using generator models from multiple provider families to mitigate single-source bias. Unlike prior benchmarks, it emphasizes ecological validity, avoids training data contamination, and enables detailed diagnostics. The evaluation combines functional correctness, similarity-based metrics, and LLM-judge assessments focused on usefulness and contextual relevance. 9 state-of-the-art models were assessed, with the strongest achieving only 43.5% Pass@1, confirming the benchmark remains challenging and revealing differences in syntactic precision, semantic reasoning, and practical utility. Our benchmark provides actionable insights to guide model selection and improvement, detail that is often missing from other benchmarks but is essential for both practical deployment and targeted model development.

As large language models evolve from question-answering systems into general-purpose agents, evaluation must move beyond static answer correctness to assess multimodal perception, multi-step execution, tool use, and artifact delivery. However, existing benchmarks are often tied to specific task types, execution environments, or scoring protocols, limiting their comparability, interpretability, and reliability for deployment decisions. We introduce DAREBench (Deployment-Aware and Reliable Evaluation of Models as Agents), a benchmark designed to capture workload variation and support reliable agent evaluation. Built on a shared OpenClaw execution environment, DAREBench organizes 233 tasks selected and adapted from 22 source benchmarks into a 2times3 workload matrix defined by input modality and execution form, and evaluates them under a unified contract-based protocol with evidence-based score auditing. We evaluate 23 commercial API models and 12 locally deployed open-weight models over 7,587 model--task runs, reporting accuracy and token consumption alongside reference costs for API models. Results show that no single model dominates all workload groups, text and multimodal tasks exhibit distinct accuracy--cost trade-offs, and local open-weight models are competitive in several groups but still trail frontier commercial models overall. These findings suggest that agent deployment and model selection should consider workload profiles, deployment mode, and accuracy--cost trade-offs rather than rely on a single aggregate score.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) for specialized engineering domains, such as circuit analysis, often faces a trade-off between reasoning accuracy and computational efficiency. Traditional evaluation methods treat model performance as a flat metric, failing to account for the hierarchical nature of engineering knowledge. We propose a performance-aware model compression strategy that utilizes prerequisite graphs to optimize model selection for circuit analysis tasks. By structuring electronics design concepts as Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), we can identify the specific complexity horizons of an LLM's compressed variants' tiers. Our framework introduces an agentic pipeline for generating prerequisite-based datasets and a strategic evaluation engine that dynamically cascades queries across a spectrum of compressed variants of an LLM. This approach allows to select the smallest compressed model, given its conceptual knowledge boundaries in circuit analysis. Experimental results on analog electronics datasets demonstrate that prerequisite graphs provide a granular map of model compression with respect to the performance given circuit analysis complexity. (Source Code: https://github.com/pacomesimon/LLM_prereq_graphs_circuit_analysis, Demo: https://huggingface.co/spaces/pacomesimon/LLM_prereq_graphs_circuit_analysis)

Large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP successfully find correspondences between images and text. Through the standard deterministic mapping process, an image or a text sample is mapped to a single vector in the embedding space. This is problematic: as multiple samples (images or text) can abstract the same concept in the physical world, deterministic embeddings do not reflect the inherent ambiguity in the embedding space. We propose ProbVLM, a probabilistic adapter that estimates probability distributions for the embeddings of pre-trained VLMs via inter/intra-modal alignment in a post-hoc manner without needing large-scale datasets or computing. On four challenging datasets, i.e., COCO, Flickr, CUB, and Oxford-flowers, we estimate the multi-modal embedding uncertainties for two VLMs, i.e., CLIP and BLIP, quantify the calibration of embedding uncertainties in retrieval tasks and show that ProbVLM outperforms other methods. Furthermore, we propose active learning and model selection as two real-world downstream tasks for VLMs and show that the estimated uncertainty aids both tasks. Lastly, we present a novel technique for visualizing the embedding distributions using a large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion model.

With the emerging trend of GPT models, we have established a framework called AutoML-GPT that integrates a comprehensive set of tools and libraries. This framework grants users access to a wide range of data preprocessing techniques, feature engineering methods, and model selection algorithms. Through a conversational interface, users can specify their requirements, constraints, and evaluation metrics. Throughout the process, AutoML-GPT employs advanced techniques for hyperparameter optimization and model selection, ensuring that the resulting model achieves optimal performance. The system effectively manages the complexity of the machine learning pipeline, guiding users towards the best choices without requiring deep domain knowledge. Through our experimental results on diverse datasets, we have demonstrated that AutoML-GPT significantly reduces the time and effort required for machine learning tasks. Its ability to leverage the vast knowledge encoded in large language models enables it to provide valuable insights, identify potential pitfalls, and suggest effective solutions to common challenges faced during model training.

The choice of embedding model is a crucial step in the design of Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Given the sheer volume of available options, identifying clusters of similar models streamlines this model selection process. Relying solely on benchmark performance scores only allows for a weak assessment of model similarity. Thus, in this study, we evaluate the similarity of embedding models within the context of RAG systems. Our assessment is two-fold: We use Centered Kernel Alignment to compare embeddings on a pair-wise level. Additionally, as it is especially pertinent to RAG systems, we evaluate the similarity of retrieval results between these models using Jaccard and rank similarity. We compare different families of embedding models, including proprietary ones, across five datasets from the popular Benchmark Information Retrieval (BEIR). Through our experiments we identify clusters of models corresponding to model families, but interestingly, also some inter-family clusters. Furthermore, our analysis of top-k retrieval similarity reveals high-variance at low k values. We also identify possible open-source alternatives to proprietary models, with Mistral exhibiting the highest similarity to OpenAI models.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) involves training policy models (PMs) and reward models (RMs) to align language models with human preferences. Instead of focusing solely on PMs and RMs independently, we propose to examine their interactions during fine-tuning, introducing the concept of seamlessness. Our study starts with observing the saturation phenomenon, where continual improvements in RM and PM do not translate into RLHF progress. Our analysis shows that RMs fail to assign proper scores to PM responses, resulting in a 35% mismatch rate with human preferences, highlighting a significant discrepancy between PM and RM. To measure seamlessness between PM and RM without human effort, we propose an automatic metric, SEAM. SEAM quantifies the discrepancies between PM and RM judgments induced by data samples. We validate the effectiveness of SEAM in data selection and model augmentation. Our experiments demonstrate that (1) using SEAM-filtered data for RL training improves RLHF performance by 4.5%, and (2) SEAM-guided model augmentation results in a 4% performance improvement over standard augmentation methods.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) significantly improves the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) on knowledge-intensive tasks. However, varying response quality across LLMs under RAG necessitates intelligent routing mechanisms, which select the most suitable model for each query from multiple retrieval-augmented LLMs via a dedicated router model. We observe that external documents dynamically affect LLMs' ability to answer queries, while existing routing methods, which rely on static parametric knowledge representations, exhibit suboptimal performance in RAG scenarios. To address this, we formally define the new retrieval-augmented LLM routing problem, incorporating the influence of retrieved documents into the routing framework. We propose RAGRouter, a RAG-aware routing design, which leverages document embeddings and RAG capability embeddings with contrastive learning to capture knowledge representation shifts and enable informed routing decisions. Extensive experiments on diverse knowledge-intensive tasks and retrieval settings show that RAGRouter outperforms the best individual LLM by 3.61% on average and existing routing methods by 3.29%-9.33%. With an extended score-threshold-based mechanism, it also achieves strong performance-efficiency trade-offs under low-latency constraints.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

Developing custom reasoning models via Reinforcement Learning (RL) that can incorporate organization-specific knowledge has great potential to address problems faced by enterprise customers. In many of these problems, the reward function is verifiable, a setting termed RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). We apply RLVR to a popular data science benchmark called BIRD that measures the ability of an AI agent to convert a natural language query for a database to SQL executions. We apply a simple and general-purpose training recipe involving careful prompt and model selection, a warm-up stage using our offline RL approach called TAO, followed by rigorous online RLVR training. With no additional training data beyond the BIRD training set and no use of proprietary models, our very first submission to the BIRD leaderboard reached state-of-the-art accuracy on the private test set: 73.56% without self-consistency and 75.68% with self-consistency. In the latter case, our model also required fewer generations than the second-best approach. While BIRD is only a proxy task, the simplicity of our framework makes it broadly applicable to enterprise domains such as business intelligence, data science, and coding.

Experts in machine learning leverage domain knowledge to navigate decisions in model selection, hyperparameter optimization, and resource allocation. This is particularly critical for fine-tuning language models (LMs), where repeated trials incur substantial computational overhead and environmental impact. However, no existing automated framework simultaneously tackles the entire model selection and hyperparameter optimization (HPO) task for resource-efficient LM fine-tuning. We introduce XAutoLM, a meta-learning-augmented AutoML framework that reuses past experiences to optimize discriminative and generative LM fine-tuning pipelines efficiently. XAutoLM learns from stored successes and failures by extracting task- and system-level meta-features to bias its sampling toward valuable configurations and away from costly dead ends. On four text classification and two question-answering benchmarks, XAutoLM surpasses zero-shot optimizer's peak F1 on five of six tasks, cuts mean evaluation time of pipelines by up to 4.5x, reduces search error ratios by up to sevenfold, and uncovers up to 50% more pipelines above the zero-shot Pareto front. In contrast, simpler memory-based baselines suffer negative transfer. We release XAutoLM and our experience store to catalyze resource-efficient, Green AI fine-tuning in the NLP community.

Model routing chooses which language model to use for each query. By sending easy queries to cheaper models and hard queries to stronger ones, it can significantly reduce inference cost while maintaining high accuracy. However, most existing routers treat this as a fixed choice among a small set of models, which makes them hard to adapt to new models or changing budget constraints. In this paper, we propose SCOPE (Scalable and Controllable Outcome Performance Estimator), a routing framework that goes beyond model selection by predicting their cost and performance. Trained with reinforcement learning, SCOPE makes reasoning-based predictions by retrieving how models behave on similar problems, rather than relying on fixed model names, enabling it to work with new, unseen models. Moreover, by explicitly predicting how accurate and how expensive a model will be, it turns routing into a dynamic decision problem, allowing users to easily control the trade-off between accuracy and cost. Experiments show that SCOPE is more than just a cost-saving tool. It flexibly adapts to user needs: it can boost accuracy by up to 25.7% when performance is the priority, or cut costs by up to 95.1% when efficiency matters most.

This paper introduces the N-Way Self-Evaluating Deliberation (NSED) protocol, a Runtime Mixture-of-Models (MoM) architecture that constructs emergent composite models from a plurality of distinct expert agents. Unlike traditional Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) which rely on static gating networks, NSED employs a Dynamic Expertise Broker - a runtime optimization engine that treats model selection as a variation of the Knapsack Problem, binding heterogeneous checkpoints to functional roles based on live telemetry and cost constraints. At the execution layer, we formalize deliberation as a Macro-Scale Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), where the consensus state loops back through a semantic forget gate to enable iterative refinement without proportional VRAM scaling. Key components include an orchestration fabric for trustless N-to-N peer review, a Quadratic Voting activation function for non-linear consensus, and a feedback-driven state update. Empirical validation on challenging benchmarks (AIME 2025, LiveCodeBench) demonstrates that this topology allows ensembles of small (less than 20B) consumer-grade models to match or exceed the performance of state-of-the-art 100B+ parameter models, establishing a new hardware arbitrage efficiency frontier. Furthermore, testing on the DarkBench safety suite reveals intrinsic alignment properties, with peer-mediated correction reducing sycophancy scores below that of any individual agent.

Data augmentation is a popular tool for single source domain generalization, which expands the source domain by generating simulated ones, improving generalization on unseen target domains. In this work, we show that the performance of such augmentation-based methods in the target domains universally fluctuates during training, posing challenges in model selection under realistic scenarios. We argue that the fluctuation stems from the inability of the model to accumulate the knowledge learned from diverse augmentations, exacerbating feature distortion during training. Based on this observation, we propose a novel generalization method, coined Parameter-Space Ensemble with Entropy Regularization (PEER), that uses a proxy model to learn the augmented data on behalf of the main model. The main model is updated by averaging its parameters with the proxy model, progressively accumulating knowledge over the training steps. Maximizing the mutual information between the output representations of the two models guides the learning process of the proxy model, mitigating feature distortion during training. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of PEER in reducing the OOD performance fluctuation and enhancing generalization across various datasets, including PACS, Digits, Office-Home, and VLCS. Notably, our method with simple random augmentation achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing prior approaches on sDG that utilize complex data augmentation strategies.

Computer Use Agents (CUAs) translate natural-language instructions into Graphical User Interface (GUI) actions such as clicks, keystrokes, and scrolls by relying on a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to interpret screenshots and predict grounded tool calls. However, grounding accuracy varies dramatically across VLMs, while current CUA systems typically route every action to a single fixed model regardless of difficulty. We propose Adaptive VLM Routing (AVR), a framework that inserts a lightweight semantic routing layer between the CUA orchestrator and a pool of VLMs. For each tool call, AVR estimates action difficulty from multimodal embeddings, probes a small VLM to measure confidence, and routes the action to the cheapest model whose predicted accuracy satisfies a target reliability threshold. For warm agents with memory of prior UI interactions, retrieved context further narrows the capability gap between small and large models, allowing many actions to be handled without escalation. We formalize routing as a cost--accuracy trade-off, derive a threshold-based policy for model selection, and evaluate AVR using ScreenSpot-Pro grounding data together with the OpenClaw agent routing benchmark. Across these settings, AVR projects inference cost reductions of up to 78\% while staying within 2 percentage points of an all-large-model baseline. When combined with the Visual Confused Deputy guardrail, AVR also escalates high-risk actions directly to the strongest available model, unifying efficiency and safety within a single routing framework. Materials are also provided Model, benchmark, and code: https://github.com/vllm-project/semantic-router.

Progress in genomic foundation models is difficult to assess due to fragmented benchmarks, incompatible evaluation protocols, and task-specific reporting. As a result, claims of superiority or generality across models are often not directly comparable. We introduce GENEB, a large-scale diagnostic benchmark that evaluates frozen representations from 40 genomic foundation models across 100 tasks spanning 13 functional categories under a unified probing-based protocol, including few-shot regimes. GENEB enables controlled comparison across model scale, architecture, tokenization, and pretraining data while explicitly exposing task-level trade-offs. Our analysis shows that aggregate leaderboards are unstable: model rankings vary sharply across task categories, scale provides only modest and inconsistent gains, and architectural and pretraining alignment frequently outweigh parameter count. These results highlight limitations of current evaluation practices and position GENEB as a reference framework for principled comparison and category-aware model selection in genomic machine learning.