Daily Papers

This article presents the prediction difference analysis method for visualizing the response of a deep neural network to a specific input. When classifying images, the method highlights areas in a given input image that provide evidence for or against a certain class. It overcomes several shortcoming of previous methods and provides great additional insight into the decision making process of classifiers. Making neural network decisions interpretable through visualization is important both to improve models and to accelerate the adoption of black-box classifiers in application areas such as medicine. We illustrate the method in experiments on natural images (ImageNet data), as well as medical images (MRI brain scans).

An automated system that could assist a judge in predicting the outcome of a case would help expedite the judicial process. For such a system to be practically useful, predictions by the system should be explainable. To promote research in developing such a system, we introduce ILDC (Indian Legal Documents Corpus). ILDC is a large corpus of 35k Indian Supreme Court cases annotated with original court decisions. A portion of the corpus (a separate test set) is annotated with gold standard explanations by legal experts. Based on ILDC, we propose the task of Court Judgment Prediction and Explanation (CJPE). The task requires an automated system to predict an explainable outcome of a case. We experiment with a battery of baseline models for case predictions and propose a hierarchical occlusion based model for explainability. Our best prediction model has an accuracy of 78% versus 94% for human legal experts, pointing towards the complexity of the prediction task. The analysis of explanations by the proposed algorithm reveals a significant difference in the point of view of the algorithm and legal experts for explaining the judgments, pointing towards scope for future research.

Transformers use the same forward computation stream to both predict the next token and store useful state for future token predictions. We formulate the state-prediction separation hypothesis: disentangling the two roles yields better language modeling performance. We design a Transformer variant that uses two computation streams to separate the two functions, and conduct pretraining experiments across various scales. Our experiments show that state-prediction separation consistently offers better data and compute efficiencies, improving validation loss and outperforming standard Transformers by 2--3 percentage points on average on downstream tasks. We also conduct extensive empirical analysis that rules out potential confounders and demonstrates the fundamental difference in the gradients our design entails.

Is there a statistical difference between Naive Bayes and Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision for predicting software defects? By utilizing systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we are answering this question. We conducted a systematic literature review by establishing criteria to search and choose papers, resulting in five studies. After that, using the meta-data and forest-plots of five chosen papers, we conducted a meta-analysis to compare the two models. The results have shown that there is no significant statistical evidence that Naive Bayes perform differently from Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

Agent trajectories record what an agent does and what happens next. Yet standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) applies loss only to agent-authored action tokens, using environment observations as context but not as prediction targets. We ask whether this convention provides the best initialization for subsequent reinforcement learning. We introduce ActObs, which also supervises the observation tokens already present in each trajectory. Although deployed agents never generate observations, learning to predict them encourages the policy to model action consequences without adding data, parameters, sequence tokens, or forward passes. The methods perform similarly after SFT but diverge after GRPO. On Qwen3-4B, GRPO from ActObs achieves higher pass@k at every evaluated sampling budget than its action-only counterpart on Terminal-Bench 2.0. On Qwen3-8B, it trades some pass@1 reliability for higher pass@k (+3.4 pp at pass@16) and solves more distinct tasks. The advantage extends to cross-domain code editing on aider-polyglot (+4.2 pp at pass@1 at 4B), whose tasks are unseen during SFT and RL. ActObs retains more entropy during RL while requiring less policy movement, leaving the final policy closer to its SFT initialization. Our analysis traces this difference to SFT: action and observation gradients rapidly become orthogonal, while action-only training leaves a large residual observation gradient and degrades environment prediction below the base model. Joint supervision prevents this one-sided specialization, preserving consequence prediction and preparing the policy for downstream exploration.

We introduce Instruction Document Visual Question Answering (iDocVQA) dataset and Large Language Document (LLaDoc) model, for training Language-Vision (LV) models for document analysis and predictions on document images, respectively. Usually, deep neural networks for the DocVQA task are trained on datasets lacking instructions. We show that using instruction-following datasets improves performance. We compare performance across document-related datasets using the recent state-of-the-art (SotA) Large Language and Vision Assistant (LLaVA)1.5 as the base model. We also evaluate the performance of the derived models for object hallucination using the Polling-based Object Probing Evaluation (POPE) dataset. The results show that instruction-tuning performance ranges from 11X to 32X of zero-shot performance and from 0.1% to 4.2% over non-instruction (traditional task) finetuning. Despite the gains, these still fall short of human performance (94.36%), implying there's much room for improvement.

Visual Navigation Models (VNMs) promise generalizable, robot navigation by learning from large-scale visual demonstrations. Despite growing real-world deployment, existing evaluations rely almost exclusively on success rate, whether the robot reaches its goal, which conceals trajectory quality, collision behavior, and robustness to environmental change. We present a real-world evaluation of five state-of-the-art VNMs (GNM, ViNT, NoMaD, NaviBridger, and CrossFormer) across two robot platforms and five environments spanning indoor and outdoor settings. Beyond success rate, we combine path-based metrics with vision-based goal-recognition scores and assess robustness through controlled image perturbations (motion blur, sunflare). Our analysis uncovers three systematic limitations: (a) even architecturally sophisticated diffusion and transformer-based models exhibit frequent collisions, indicating limited geometric understanding; (b) models fail to discriminate between different locations that are perceptually similar, however some semantics differences are present, causing goal prediction errors in repetitive environments; and (c) performance degrades under distribution shift. We will publicly release our evaluation codebase and dataset to facilitate reproducible benchmarking of VNMs.

We study the problem of (learning) algorithm comparison, where the goal is to find differences between models trained with two different learning algorithms. We begin by formalizing this goal as one of finding distinguishing feature transformations, i.e., input transformations that change the predictions of models trained with one learning algorithm but not the other. We then present ModelDiff, a method that leverages the datamodels framework (Ilyas et al., 2022) to compare learning algorithms based on how they use their training data. We demonstrate ModelDiff through three case studies, comparing models trained with/without data augmentation, with/without pre-training, and with different SGD hyperparameters. Our code is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/modeldiff .

How do two sets of images differ? Discerning set-level differences is crucial for understanding model behaviors and analyzing datasets, yet manually sifting through thousands of images is impractical. To aid in this discovery process, we explore the task of automatically describing the differences between two sets of images, which we term Set Difference Captioning. This task takes in image sets D_A and D_B, and outputs a description that is more often true on D_A than D_B. We outline a two-stage approach that first proposes candidate difference descriptions from image sets and then re-ranks the candidates by checking how well they can differentiate the two sets. We introduce VisDiff, which first captions the images and prompts a language model to propose candidate descriptions, then re-ranks these descriptions using CLIP. To evaluate VisDiff, we collect VisDiffBench, a dataset with 187 paired image sets with ground truth difference descriptions. We apply VisDiff to various domains, such as comparing datasets (e.g., ImageNet vs. ImageNetV2), comparing classification models (e.g., zero-shot CLIP vs. supervised ResNet), summarizing model failure modes (supervised ResNet), characterizing differences between generative models (e.g., StableDiffusionV1 and V2), and discovering what makes images memorable. Using VisDiff, we are able to find interesting and previously unknown differences in datasets and models, demonstrating its utility in revealing nuanced insights.

Language models (LMs) can make a correct prediction based on many possible signals in a prompt, not all corresponding to recall of factual associations. However, current interpretations of LMs fail to take this into account. For example, given the query "Astrid Lindgren was born in" with the corresponding completion "Sweden", no difference is made between whether the prediction was based on knowing where the author was born or assuming that a person with a Swedish-sounding name was born in Sweden. In this paper, we present a model-specific recipe - PrISM - for constructing datasets with examples of four different prediction scenarios: generic language modeling, guesswork, heuristics recall and exact fact recall. We apply two popular interpretability methods to the scenarios: causal tracing (CT) and information flow analysis. We find that both yield distinct results for each scenario. Results for exact fact recall and generic language modeling scenarios confirm previous conclusions about the importance of mid-range MLP sublayers for fact recall, while results for guesswork and heuristics indicate a critical role of late last token position MLP sublayers. In summary, we contribute resources for a more extensive and granular study of fact completion in LMs, together with analyses that provide a more nuanced understanding of how LMs process fact-related queries.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Data plays a pivotal role in the groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence. The quantitative analysis of data significantly contributes to model training, enhancing both the efficiency and quality of data utilization. However, existing data analysis tools often lag in accuracy. For instance, many of these tools even assume that the loss function of neural networks is convex. These limitations make it challenging to implement current methods effectively. In this paper, we introduce a new formulation to approximate a sample's influence by accumulating the differences in influence between consecutive learning steps, which we term Diff-In. Specifically, we formulate the sample-wise influence as the cumulative sum of its changes/differences across successive training iterations. By employing second-order approximations, we approximate these difference terms with high accuracy while eliminating the need for model convexity required by existing methods. Despite being a second-order method, Diff-In maintains computational complexity comparable to that of first-order methods and remains scalable. This efficiency is achieved by computing the product of the Hessian and gradient, which can be efficiently approximated using finite differences of first-order gradients. We assess the approximation accuracy of Diff-In both theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that Diff-In achieves significantly lower approximation error compared to existing influence estimators. Extensive experiments further confirm its superior performance across multiple benchmark datasets in three data-centric tasks: data cleaning, data deletion, and coreset selection. Notably, our experiments on data pruning for large-scale vision-language pre-training show that Diff-In can scale to millions of data points and outperforms strong baselines.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

During the compression, transmission, and rendering of point clouds, various artifacts are introduced, affecting the quality perceived by the end user. However, evaluating the impact of these distortions on the overall quality is a challenging task. This study introduces PST-PCQA, a no-reference point cloud quality metric based on a low-complexity, learning-based framework. It evaluates point cloud quality by analyzing individual patches, integrating local and global features to predict the Mean Opinion Score. In summary, the process involves extracting features from patches, combining them, and using correlation weights to predict the overall quality. This approach allows us to assess point cloud quality without relying on a reference point cloud, making it particularly useful in scenarios where reference data is unavailable. Experimental tests on three state-of-the-art datasets show good prediction capabilities of PST-PCQA, through the analysis of different feature pooling strategies and its ability to generalize across different datasets. The ablation study confirms the benefits of evaluating quality on a patch-by-patch basis. Additionally, PST-PCQA's light-weight structure, with a small number of parameters to learn, makes it well-suited for real-time applications and devices with limited computational capacity. For reproducibility purposes, we made code, model, and pretrained weights available at https://github.com/michaelneri/PST-PCQA.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

In Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding information in a suboptimal or erroneous way can impact the quality of representations based on later elements in the sequence and subsequently lead to wrong predictions and a worse model performance. In humans, challenging cases like garden path sentences (an instance of this being the infamous "The horse raced past the barn fell") can lead their language understanding astray. However, they are still able to correct their representation accordingly and recover when new information is encountered. Inspired by this, I propose an augmentation to standard RNNs in form of a gradient-based correction mechanism: This way I hope to enable such models to dynamically adapt their inner representation of a sentence, adding a way to correct deviations as soon as they occur. This could therefore lead to more robust models using more flexible representations, even during inference time. I conduct different experiments in the context of language modeling, where the impact of using such a mechanism is examined in detail. To this end, I look at modifications based on different kinds of time-dependent error signals and how they influence the model performance. Furthermore, this work contains a study of the model's confidence in its predictions during training and for challenging test samples and the effect of the manipulation thereof. Lastly, I also study the difference in behavior of these novel models compared to a standard LSTM baseline and investigate error cases in detail to identify points of future research. I show that while the proposed approach comes with promising theoretical guarantees and an appealing intuition, it is only able to produce minor improvements over the baseline due to challenges in its practical application and the efficacy of the tested model variants.

Language model evaluation is a daunting task: prompts are brittle, corpus-level perplexities are vague, and the choice of benchmarks are endless. Finding examples that show meaningful, generalizable differences between two LMs is crucial to understanding where one model succeeds and another fails. Can this process be done automatically? In this work, we propose methodology for automated comparison of language models that uses performance-aware contextual embeddings to find fine-grained features of text where one LM outperforms another. Our method, which we name BehaviorBox, extracts coherent features that demonstrate differences with respect to the ease of generation between two LMs. Specifically, BehaviorBox finds features that describe groups of words in fine-grained contexts, such as "conditional 'were' in the phrase 'if you were'" and "exclamation marks after emotional statements", where one model outperforms another within a particular datatset. We apply BehaviorBox to compare models that vary in size, model family, and post-training, and enumerate insights into specific contexts that illustrate meaningful differences in performance which cannot be found by measures such as corpus-level perplexity alone.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

Automatically highlighting words that cause semantic differences between two documents could be useful for a wide range of applications. We formulate recognizing semantic differences (RSD) as a token-level regression task and study three unsupervised approaches that rely on a masked language model. To assess the approaches, we begin with basic English sentences and gradually move to more complex, cross-lingual document pairs. Our results show that an approach based on word alignment and sentence-level contrastive learning has a robust correlation to gold labels. However, all unsupervised approaches still leave a large margin of improvement. Code to reproduce our experiments is available at https://github.com/ZurichNLP/recognizing-semantic-differences

In a multi-turn knowledge-grounded dialog, the difference between the knowledge selected at different turns usually provides potential clues to knowledge selection, which has been largely neglected in previous research. In this paper, we propose a difference-aware knowledge selection method. It first computes the difference between the candidate knowledge sentences provided at the current turn and those chosen in the previous turns. Then, the differential information is fused with or disentangled from the contextual information to facilitate final knowledge selection. Automatic, human observational, and interactive evaluation shows that our method is able to select knowledge more accurately and generate more informative responses, significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art baselines. The codes are available at https://github.com/chujiezheng/DiffKS.

Process analytics is an umbrella of data-driven techniques which includes making predictions for individual process instances or overall process models. At the instance level, various novel techniques have been recently devised, tackling next activity, remaining time, and outcome prediction. At the model level, there is a notable void. It is the ambition of this paper to fill this gap. To this end, we develop a technique to forecast the entire process model from historical event data. A forecasted model is a will-be process model representing a probable future state of the overall process. Such a forecast helps to investigate the consequences of drift and emerging bottlenecks. Our technique builds on a representation of event data as multiple time series, each capturing the evolution of a behavioural aspect of the process model, such that corresponding forecasting techniques can be applied. Our implementation demonstrates the accuracy of our technique on real-world event log data.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

Clinical trials in the UK can cost up to £1.3 million, with approximately 90% drug failure rate. Toxicity is a major contributing factor in drug failure. Testing is time and cost intensive. In recent years, the use of artificial intelligence has been increasingly explored to aid in the prediction of drug toxicity, with extensive use of large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs can show considerable variation when minor changes are made to prompts, which raises concerns about their sensitivity to prompt engineering. Prompt engineering is used to optimise a prompt given to an LLM to generate the desired output. This paper proposes a method to analyse prompt engineering for drug toxicity prediction. The aim of the paper is to investigate the importance of prompt phrasing for drug toxicity prediction. LLMs were prompted to identify chemical properties of significance when predicting drug toxicity. Prompts were constructed to investigate; job role, prompt structuring, and rule interpretation. LLMs were then used to generate datasets, using the identified features from initial prompting, which were then passed to machine learning algorithms. The experiments show that the natural variance which occurs in LLMs outweighs any fine-tuning of prompts. There were, however, substantial improvements in model performance when using chemoinformatic code to extract features instead of using LLM-generated values. The proposed analysis methodology is applicable to a wide range of prompt types across different areas of bioinformatics.

We have tried to reproduce the results of the paper "Natural Language Inference over Interaction Space" submitted to ICLR 2018 conference as part of the ICLR 2018 Reproducibility Challenge. Initially, we were not aware that the code was available, so we started to implement the network from scratch. We have evaluated our version of the model on Stanford NLI dataset and reached 86.38% accuracy on the test set, while the paper claims 88.0% accuracy. The main difference, as we understand it, comes from the optimizers and the way model selection is performed.

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. We first identify critical statistical indicators via Principal Component Analysis and then develop a two-tier fuzzy model based on the Wimbledon data. In addition, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicate that the momentum indicators, such as Player Win Streak and Score Difference, have a strong correlation among them, revealing insightful trends among players transitioning between losing and winning streaks. Subsequently, we refine the CV-GRNN model by incorporating 15 statistically significant indicators, resulting in an increase in accuracy to 86.64% and a decrease in MSE by 49.21%. This consequently strengthens the methodological framework for predicting tennis match outcomes, emphasizing its practical utility and potential for adaptation in various athletic contexts.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

We present a novel dataset collected by ASOS (a major online fashion retailer) to address the challenge of predicting customer returns in a fashion retail ecosystem. With the release of this substantial dataset we hope to motivate further collaboration between research communities and the fashion industry. We first explore the structure of this dataset with a focus on the application of Graph Representation Learning in order to exploit the natural data structure and provide statistical insights into particular features within the data. In addition to this, we show examples of a return prediction classification task with a selection of baseline models (i.e. with no intermediate representation learning step) and a graph representation based model. We show that in a downstream return prediction classification task, an F1-score of 0.792 can be found using a Graph Neural Network (GNN), improving upon other models discussed in this work. Alongside this increased F1-score, we also present a lower cross-entropy loss by recasting the data into a graph structure, indicating more robust predictions from a GNN based solution. These results provide evidence that GNNs could provide more impactful and usable classifications than other baseline models on the presented dataset and with this motivation, we hope to encourage further research into graph-based approaches using the ASOS GraphReturns dataset.

Counterfactual statements describe events that did not or cannot take place. We consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) in product reviews. For this purpose, we annotate a multilingual CFD dataset from Amazon product reviews covering counterfactual statements written in English, German, and Japanese languages. The dataset is unique as it contains counterfactuals in multiple languages, covers a new application area of e-commerce reviews, and provides high quality professional annotations. We train CFD models using different text representation methods and classifiers. We find that these models are robust against the selectional biases introduced due to cue phrase-based sentence selection. Moreover, our CFD dataset is compatible with prior datasets and can be merged to learn accurate CFD models. Applying machine translation on English counterfactual examples to create multilingual data performs poorly, demonstrating the language-specificity of this problem, which has been ignored so far.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into users' daily lives, leading to a growing demand for personalized outputs. Previous work focuses on leveraging a user's own history, overlooking inter-user differences that are crucial for effective personalization. While recent work has attempted to model such differences, the reliance on language-based prompts often hampers the effective extraction of meaningful distinctions. To address these issues, we propose Difference-aware Embedding-based Personalization (DEP), a framework that models inter-user differences in the latent space instead of relying on language prompts. DEP constructs soft prompts by contrasting a user's embedding with those of peers who engaged with similar content, highlighting relative behavioral signals. A sparse autoencoder then filters and compresses both user-specific and difference-aware embeddings, preserving only task-relevant features before injecting them into a frozen LLM. Experiments on personalized review generation show that DEP consistently outperforms baseline methods across multiple metrics. Our code is available at https://github.com/SnowCharmQ/DEP.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Image Difference Captioning (IDC) generates natural language descriptions that precisely identify differences between two images, serving as a key benchmark for fine-grained change perception, cross-modal reasoning, and image editing data construction. However, existing benchmarks lack diversity and compositional complexity, and standard lexical-overlap metrics (e.g., BLEU, METEOR) fail to capture semantic consistency or penalize hallucinations, which together prevent a comprehensive and robust evaluation of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) on IDC. To address these gaps, we introduce DiffCap-Bench, a comprehensive IDC benchmark covering ten distinct difference categories to ensure diversity and compositional complexity. Furthermore, we propose an LLM-as-a-Judge evaluation protocol grounded in human-validated Difference Lists, enabling a robust assessment of models' ability to both capture and describe visual changes. Through extensive evaluation of state-of-the-art MLLMs, we reveal significant performance gaps between proprietary and open-source models, highlight the critical importance of reasoning capability, and identify clear limitations in model scaling. Our framework also demonstrates strong alignment with human expert judgments and strong correlation with downstream image editing data construction quality. These findings establish DiffCap-Bench as both a reliable IDC evaluation framework and a practical predictor of downstream utility. The benchmark and code will be made publicly available to support further research.

High-performance Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) rely heavily on data quality. This study introduces a novel dataset named Img-Diff, designed to enhance fine-grained image recognition in MLLMs by leveraging insights from contrastive learning and image difference captioning. By analyzing object differences between similar images, we challenge models to identify both matching and distinct components. We utilize the Stable-Diffusion-XL model and advanced image editing techniques to create pairs of similar images that highlight object replacements. Our methodology includes a Difference Area Generator for object differences identifying, followed by a Difference Captions Generator for detailed difference descriptions. The result is a relatively small but high-quality dataset of "object replacement" samples. We use the the proposed dataset to fine-tune state-of-the-art (SOTA) MLLMs such as MGM-7B, yielding comprehensive improvements of performance scores over SOTA models that trained with larger-scale datasets, in numerous image difference and Visual Question Answering tasks. For instance, our trained models notably surpass the SOTA models GPT-4V and Gemini on the MMVP benchmark. Besides, we investigate alternative methods for generating image difference data through "object removal" and conduct thorough evaluation to confirm the dataset's diversity, quality, and robustness, presenting several insights on synthesis of such contrastive dataset. To encourage further research and advance the field of multimodal data synthesis and enhancement of MLLMs' fundamental capabilities for image understanding, we release our codes and dataset at https://github.com/modelscope/data-juicer/tree/ImgDiff.

People increasingly use large language models (LLMs) to explore ideas, gather information, and make sense of the world. In these interactions, they encounter agents that are overly agreeable. We argue that this sycophancy poses a unique epistemic risk to how individuals come to see the world: unlike hallucinations that introduce falsehoods, sycophancy distorts reality by returning responses that are biased to reinforce existing beliefs. We provide a rational analysis of this phenomenon, showing that when a Bayesian agent is provided with data that are sampled based on a current hypothesis the agent becomes increasingly confident about that hypothesis but does not make any progress towards the truth. We test this prediction using a modified Wason 2-4-6 rule discovery task where participants (N=557) interacted with AI agents providing different types of feedback. Unmodified LLM behavior suppressed discovery and inflated confidence comparably to explicitly sycophantic prompting. By contrast, unbiased sampling from the true distribution yielded discovery rates five times higher. These results reveal how sycophantic AI distorts belief, manufacturing certainty where there should be doubt.

We present Connection-Aware Motif Sequencing (CamS), a graph-to-sequence representation that enables decoder-only Transformers to learn molecular graphs via standard next-token prediction (NTP). For molecular property prediction, SMILES-based NTP scales well but lacks explicit topology, whereas graph-native masked modeling captures connectivity but risks disrupting the pivotal chemical details (e.g., activity cliffs). CamS bridges this gap by serializing molecular graphs into structure-rich causal sequences. CamS first mines data-driven connection-aware motifs. It then serializes motifs via scaffold-rooted breadth-first search (BFS) to establish a stable core-to-periphery order. Crucially, CamS enables hierarchical modeling by concatenating sequences from fine to coarse motif scales, allowing the model to condition global scaffolds on dense, uncorrupted local structural evidence. We instantiate CamS-LLaMA by pre-training a vanilla LLaMA backbone on CamS sequences. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on MoleculeNet and the activity-cliff benchmark MoleculeACE, outperforming both SMILES-based language models and strong graph baselines. Interpretability analysis confirms that our multi-scale causal serialization effectively drives attention toward cliff-determining differences.

In a legal system, judgment consistency is regarded as one of the most important manifestations of fairness. However, due to the complexity of factual elements that impact sentencing in real-world scenarios, few works have been done on quantitatively measuring judgment consistency towards real-world data. In this paper, we propose an evaluation metric for judgment inconsistency, Legal Inconsistency Coefficient (LInCo), which aims to evaluate inconsistency between data groups divided by specific features (e.g., gender, region, race). We propose to simulate judges from different groups with legal judgment prediction (LJP) models and measure the judicial inconsistency with the disagreement of the judgment results given by LJP models trained on different groups. Experimental results on the synthetic data verify the effectiveness of LInCo. We further employ LInCo to explore the inconsistency in real cases and come to the following observations: (1) Both regional and gender inconsistency exist in the legal system, but gender inconsistency is much less than regional inconsistency; (2) The level of regional inconsistency varies little across different time periods; (3) In general, judicial inconsistency is negatively correlated with the severity of the criminal charges. Besides, we use LInCo to evaluate the performance of several de-bias methods, such as adversarial learning, and find that these mechanisms can effectively help LJP models to avoid suffering from data bias.

Existing deep active learning algorithms achieve impressive sampling efficiency on natural language processing tasks. However, they exhibit several weaknesses in practice, including (a) inability to use uncertainty sampling with black-box models, (b) lack of robustness to labeling noise, and (c) lack of transparency. In response, we propose a transparent batch active sampling framework by estimating the error decay curves of multiple feature-defined subsets of the data. Experiments on four named entity recognition (NER) tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly outperform diversification-based methods for black-box NER taggers, and can make the sampling process more robust to labeling noise when combined with uncertainty-based methods. Furthermore, the analysis of experimental results sheds light on the weaknesses of different active sampling strategies, and when traditional uncertainty-based or diversification-based methods can be expected to work well.

Masked autoencoders (MAE) have recently been introduced to 3D self-supervised pretraining for point clouds due to their great success in NLP and computer vision. Unlike MAEs used in the image domain, where the pretext task is to restore features at the masked pixels, such as colors, the existing 3D MAE works reconstruct the missing geometry only, i.e, the location of the masked points. In contrast to previous studies, we advocate that point location recovery is inessential and restoring intrinsic point features is much superior. To this end, we propose to ignore point position reconstruction and recover high-order features at masked points including surface normals and surface variations, through a novel attention-based decoder which is independent of the encoder design. We validate the effectiveness of our pretext task and decoder design using different encoder structures for 3D training and demonstrate the advantages of our pretrained networks on various point cloud analysis tasks.

We introduce a simple yet effective early fusion method for crop yield prediction that handles multiple input modalities with different temporal and spatial resolutions. We use high-resolution crop yield maps as ground truth data to train crop and machine learning model agnostic methods at the sub-field level. We use Sentinel-2 satellite imagery as the primary modality for input data with other complementary modalities, including weather, soil, and DEM data. The proposed method uses input modalities available with global coverage, making the framework globally scalable. We explicitly highlight the importance of input modalities for crop yield prediction and emphasize that the best-performing combination of input modalities depends on region, crop, and chosen model.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

We introduce J-ORA, a novel multimodal dataset that bridges the gap in robot perception by providing detailed object attribute annotations within Japanese human-robot dialogue scenarios. J-ORA is designed to support three critical perception tasks, object identification, reference resolution, and next-action prediction, by leveraging a comprehensive template of attributes (e.g., category, color, shape, size, material, and spatial relations). Extensive evaluations with both proprietary and open-source Vision Language Models (VLMs) reveal that incorporating detailed object attributes substantially improves multimodal perception performance compared to without object attributes. Despite the improvement, we find that there still exists a gap between proprietary and open-source VLMs. In addition, our analysis of object affordances demonstrates varying abilities in understanding object functionality and contextual relationships across different VLMs. These findings underscore the importance of rich, context-sensitive attribute annotations in advancing robot perception in dynamic environments. See project page at https://jatuhurrra.github.io/J-ORA/.

We present a new publicly available dataset with the goal of advancing multi-modality learning by offering vision and language data within the same context. This is achieved by obtaining data from a social media website with posts containing multiple paired images/videos and text, along with comment trees containing images/videos and/or text. With a total of 677k posts, 2.9 million post images, 488k post videos, 1.4 million comment images, 4.6 million comment videos, and 96.9 million comments, data from different modalities can be jointly used to improve performances for a variety of tasks such as image captioning, image classification, next frame prediction, sentiment analysis, and language modeling. We present a wide range of statistics for our dataset. Finally, we provide baseline performance analysis for one of the regression tasks using pre-trained models and several fully connected networks.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

This study examines the relationship between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia using machine learning techniques. The dataset utilized is from the Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data Portal, covering the period 2016-2022. The analysis employs various machine learning techniques, including K-means clustering, ARIMA modeling, Random Forest regression, and Prophet for time series forecasting. These models are used to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in the data, and to predict future school completion rates. Key findings reveal significant disparities in school completion rates across states, genders, and income levels. The analysis also identifies clusters of states with similar completion rates, suggesting potential regional factors influencing educational outcomes. Furthermore, time series forecasting models accurately predict future completion rates, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and intervention strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for policymakers and educators to address the observed disparities and improve school completion rates in Malaysia. These recommendations include targeted interventions for specific states and demographic groups, investment in early childhood education, and addressing the impact of income inequality on educational opportunities. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing school completion in Malaysia and provide valuable insights for policymakers and educators to develop effective strategies to improve educational outcomes.

In this paper, we present our novel systems developed for the SemEval-2024 hallucination detection task. Our investigation spans a range of strategies to compare model predictions with reference standards, encompassing diverse baselines, the refinement of pre-trained encoders through supervised learning, and an ensemble approaches utilizing several high-performing models. Through these explorations, we introduce three distinct methods that exhibit strong performance metrics. To amplify our training data, we generate additional training samples from unlabelled training subset. Furthermore, we provide a detailed comparative analysis of our approaches. Notably, our premier method achieved a commendable 9th place in the competition's model-agnostic track and 17th place in model-aware track, highlighting its effectiveness and potential.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

Complex machine learning algorithms are used more and more often in critical tasks involving text data, leading to the development of interpretability methods. Among local methods, two families have emerged: those computing importance scores for each feature and those extracting simple logical rules. In this paper we show that using different methods can lead to unexpectedly different explanations, even when applied to simple models for which we would expect qualitative coincidence. To quantify this effect, we propose a new approach to compare explanations produced by different methods.

This book is about conformal prediction and related inferential techniques that build on permutation tests and exchangeability. These techniques are useful in a diverse array of tasks, including hypothesis testing and providing uncertainty quantification guarantees for machine learning systems. Much of the current interest in conformal prediction is due to its ability to integrate into complex machine learning workflows, solving the problem of forming prediction sets without any assumptions on the form of the data generating distribution. Since contemporary machine learning algorithms have generally proven difficult to analyze directly, conformal prediction's main appeal is its ability to provide formal, finite-sample guarantees when paired with such methods. The goal of this book is to teach the reader about the fundamental technical arguments that arise when researching conformal prediction and related questions in distribution-free inference. Many of these proof strategies, especially the more recent ones, are scattered among research papers, making it difficult for researchers to understand where to look, which results are important, and how exactly the proofs work. We hope to bridge this gap by curating what we believe to be some of the most important results in the literature and presenting their proofs in a unified language, with illustrations, and with an eye towards pedagogy.

Distinct-n scoreLi2016 is a widely used automatic metric for evaluating diversity in language generation tasks. However, we observed that the original approach for calculating distinct scores has evident biases that tend to assign higher penalties to longer sequences. We refine the calculation of distinct scores by scaling the number of distinct tokens based on their expectations. We provide both empirical and theoretical evidence to show that our method effectively removes the biases existing in the original distinct score. Our experiments show that our proposed metric, Expectation-Adjusted Distinct (EAD), correlates better with human judgment in evaluating response diversity. To foster future research, we provide an example implementation at https://github.com/lsy641/Expectation-Adjusted-Distinct.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common dataset and evaluation metrics make inter-comparison between studies difficult. Here we present a benchmark dataset for data-driven medium-range weather forecasting, a topic of high scientific interest for atmospheric and computer scientists alike. We provide data derived from the ERA5 archive that has been processed to facilitate the use in machine learning models. We propose simple and clear evaluation metrics which will enable a direct comparison between different methods. Further, we provide baseline scores from simple linear regression techniques, deep learning models, as well as purely physical forecasting models. The dataset is publicly available at https://github.com/pangeo-data/WeatherBench and the companion code is reproducible with tutorials for getting started. We hope that this dataset will accelerate research in data-driven weather forecasting.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Based on the established task of identifying boosted, hadronically decaying top quarks, we compare a wide range of modern machine learning approaches. Unlike most established methods they rely on low-level input, for instance calorimeter output. While their network architectures are vastly different, their performance is comparatively similar. In general, we find that these new approaches are extremely powerful and great fun.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

Cryptocurrency price prediction is a significant challenge in quantitative investment. In recent years, time series models have made significant progress in financial forecasting tasks, especially in the stock market. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in cryptocurrency prediction. Specifically, time series models (e.g., LSTM, GRU, and Transformers) are effective at extracting temporal relationships in stock market data. However, in pure price-based cryptocurrency prediction, facing data with extreme volatility and wild swings, time series models have difficulty learning effective information. To validate our claim, we propose CryptoGAT, a lightweight Graph Attention Network that recasts cryptocurrency pure price prediction as a cross-asset graph problem rather than a temporal modeling task. Extensive experiments on real cryptocurrency benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed CryptoGAT outperforms various state-of-the-art forecasting methods with a notable margin. Moreover, we conduct comprehensive empirical studies to explore the fundamental differences exposed by time series models in stock and cryptocurrency prediction: differences in predictability of the signal and cross-asset dependencies. This finding opens up new research directions for the cryptocurrency pure price prediction task and inspires further graph-based exploration in the field. The source code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CryptoGAT

Overfitting is the bane of data analysts, even when data are plentiful. Formal approaches to understanding this problem focus on statistical inference and generalization of individual analysis procedures. Yet the practice of data analysis is an inherently interactive and adaptive process: new analyses and hypotheses are proposed after seeing the results of previous ones, parameters are tuned on the basis of obtained results, and datasets are shared and reused. An investigation of this gap has recently been initiated by the authors in (Dwork et al., 2014), where we focused on the problem of estimating expectations of adaptively chosen functions. In this paper, we give a simple and practical method for reusing a holdout (or testing) set to validate the accuracy of hypotheses produced by a learning algorithm operating on a training set. Reusing a holdout set adaptively multiple times can easily lead to overfitting to the holdout set itself. We give an algorithm that enables the validation of a large number of adaptively chosen hypotheses, while provably avoiding overfitting. We illustrate the advantages of our algorithm over the standard use of the holdout set via a simple synthetic experiment. We also formalize and address the general problem of data reuse in adaptive data analysis. We show how the differential-privacy based approach given in (Dwork et al., 2014) is applicable much more broadly to adaptive data analysis. We then show that a simple approach based on description length can also be used to give guarantees of statistical validity in adaptive settings. Finally, we demonstrate that these incomparable approaches can be unified via the notion of approximate max-information that we introduce.

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing algorithms can be generalized using various binary classification and regression models. In particular, we show that the Gradient Boosting over Decision Trees and Neural Networks can be used for this purpose. The algorithms are tested on several synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that the proposed methods outperform classical RuLSIF algorithm. Discussion of cases where the proposed algorithms have advantages over existing methods are also provided.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models typically operate on RGB images produced by a fixed camera image signal processor (ISP), leaving the imaging pipeline outside the learning and evaluation loop. We systematically examine the consequences of this overlooked design choice across five fundamental ISP dimensions: gain, sensor noise, chromatic response, tonal response, and bit depth. Our analysis reveals that RAW-to-RGB processing materially shapes both action prediction and manipulation success, with different ISP dimensions exerting substantially different effects. Guided by these findings, we introduce RawVLA, a streaming neural ISP that adaptively renders RAW observations for frozen VLA policies while concentrating its capacity on the imaging factors relevant to embodied behavior. We further present RawVLA-Bench, a RAW-domain manipulation benchmark to expose image processing as an explicit evaluation variable across clean and adverse acquisition conditions. Experiments on RawVLA-Bench show that RawVLA preserves performance under standard conditions while substantially improving robustness under degraded imaging, establishing adaptive RAW processing as an effective interface between physical cameras and embodied policies.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

We propose a new graph convolutional block, called MusGConv, specifically designed for the efficient processing of musical score data and motivated by general perceptual principles. It focuses on two fundamental dimensions of music, pitch and rhythm, and considers both relative and absolute representations of these components. We evaluate our approach on four different musical understanding problems: monophonic voice separation, harmonic analysis, cadence detection, and composer identification which, in abstract terms, translate to different graph learning problems, namely, node classification, link prediction, and graph classification. Our experiments demonstrate that MusGConv improves the performance on three of the aforementioned tasks while being conceptually very simple and efficient. We interpret this as evidence that it is beneficial to include perception-informed processing of fundamental musical concepts when developing graph network applications on musical score data.

In this paper, we explore a novel approach to 3D anomaly detection (AD) that goes beyond merely identifying anomalies based on structural characteristics. Our primary perspective is that most anomalies arise from unpredictable defective forces originating from both internal and external sources. To address these anomalies, we seek out opposing forces that can help correct them. Therefore, we introduce the Mechanics Complementary Model-based Framework for the 3D-AD task (MC4AD), which generates internal and external corrective forces for each point. We first propose a Diverse Anomaly-Generation (DA-Gen) module designed to simulate various types of anomalies. Next, we present the Corrective Force Prediction Network (CFP-Net), which uses complementary representations for point-level analysis to simulate the different contributions from internal and external corrective forces. To ensure the corrective forces are constrained effectively, we have developed a combined loss function that includes a new symmetric loss and an overall loss. Notably, we implement a Hierarchical Quality Control (HQC) strategy based on a three-way decision process and contribute a dataset titled Anomaly-IntraVariance, which incorporates intraclass variance to evaluate our model. As a result, the proposed MC4AD has been proven effective through theory and experimentation. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach yields nine state-of-the-art performances, achieving optimal results with minimal parameters and the fastest inference speed across five existing datasets, in addition to the proposed Anomaly-IntraVariance dataset. The source is available at https://github.com/hzzzzzhappy/MC4AD

In this research, I explore advanced deep learning methodologies to forecast the outcomes of the 2025 NCAA Division 1 Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments. Leveraging historical NCAA game data, I implement two sophisticated sequence-based models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures. The predictive power of these models is augmented through comprehensive feature engineering, including team quality metrics derived from Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Elo ratings, seed differences, and aggregated box-score statistics. To evaluate the robustness and reliability of predictions, I train each model variant using both Binary Cross-Entropy (BCE) and Brier loss functions, providing insights into classification performance and probability calibration. My comparative analysis reveals that while the Transformer architecture optimized with BCE yields superior discriminative power (highest AUC of 0.8473), the LSTM model trained with Brier loss demonstrates superior probabilistic calibration (lowest Brier score of 0.1589). These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate model architectures and loss functions based on the specific requirements of forecasting tasks. The detailed analytical pipeline presented here serves as a reproducible framework for future predictive modeling tasks in sports analytics and beyond.

In this research, we aim to compare the performance of different classical machine learning models and neural networks in identifying the frequency of occurrence of each digit in a given number. It has various applications in machine learning and computer vision, e.g. for obtaining the frequency of a target object in a visual scene. We considered this problem as a hybrid of classification and regression tasks. We carefully create our own datasets to observe systematic differences between different methods. We evaluate each of the methods using different metrics across multiple datasets.The metrics of performance used were the root mean squared error and mean absolute error for regression evaluation, and accuracy for classification performance evaluation. We observe that decision trees and random forests overfit to the dataset, due to their inherent bias, and are not able to generalize well. We also observe that the neural networks significantly outperform the classical machine learning models in terms of both the regression and classification metrics for both the 6-digit and 10-digit number datasets. Dataset and code are available on github.

Repeated training on model-generated data can degrade later models. One possible response is to use provenance when deciding which generated examples to reuse. We test both how reliably that provenance can be recovered and whether it helps identify better training data. Using financial-risk text, we first identify the source of generated passages and then repeat the test after rewriting them. Generator attribution is 98.7% accurate on the original passages but falls to 53.1% after paraphrasing and 29.0% after style rewriting. Generated-versus-human detection remains close to perfect against the tested human comparison set. We then compare two ways of selecting generated examples over three rounds of generation and retraining. One uses source information. The other uses a score from a separate reference model. The two rules select different examples, but the planned comparison does not detect a stable difference in the degradation of the resulting models. The results show that identifying where data came from and identifying which data are useful for training are separate problems. The experiment therefore separates source identity, criterion-facing selection, and recursive training outcome: neither the provenance score nor the tested criterion-facing proxy is established as sufficient for future recursive behaviour.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Large language models increasingly generate research ideas, yet judging their novelty or feasibility at generation time does not establish whether they anticipate subsequent work. We introduce IdeaForecastBench to evaluate research idea forecasting. Given a community's literature up to a cutoff, a system produces up to five ranked ideas, which are evaluated against later papers. The benchmark comprises 624 rolling episodes across 52 topics, with a fixed retrieve-then-judge protocol and separately reported results from two judges. We compare five history-compression strategies across GPT-4.1, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, and Qwen3.5-9B, together with a learned Mode-Decomposition Forecaster (MDF). Under the primary GPT-4.1-mini judge, Summary improves on Direct in Hit@5 and Precision@5 across all four backbones. Qwen2.5 scores above GPT-4.1, whereas Qwen3.5 scores below it. An outcome-blind assessment finds that Qwen2.5 produces broader forecasts, but does not identify how much breadth contributes to its advantage. Threshold and judge diagnostics further clarify the limits of interpreting realization as precise anticipation. IdeaForecastBench provides a common task for studying which research ideas a community subsequently pursues and how reliably this outcome can be measured.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

Stock market prediction has been a classical yet challenging problem, with the attention from both economists and computer scientists. With the purpose of building an effective prediction model, both linear and machine learning tools have been explored for the past couple of decades. Lately, deep learning models have been introduced as new frontiers for this topic and the rapid development is too fast to catch up. Hence, our motivation for this survey is to give a latest review of recent works on deep learning models for stock market prediction. We not only category the different data sources, various neural network structures, and common used evaluation metrics, but also the implementation and reproducibility. Our goal is to help the interested researchers to synchronize with the latest progress and also help them to easily reproduce the previous studies as baselines. Base on the summary, we also highlight some future research directions in this topic.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Predictor-based methods have substantially enhanced Neural Architecture Search (NAS) optimization. The efficacy of these predictors is largely influenced by the method of encoding neural network architectures. While traditional encodings used an adjacency matrix describing the graph structure of a neural network, novel encodings embrace a variety of approaches from unsupervised pretraining of latent representations to vectors of zero-cost proxies. In this paper, we categorize and investigate neural encodings from three main types: structural, learned, and score-based. Furthermore, we extend these encodings and introduce unified encodings, that extend NAS predictors to multiple search spaces. Our analysis draws from experiments conducted on over 1.5 million neural network architectures on NAS spaces such as NASBench-101 (NB101), NB201, NB301, Network Design Spaces (NDS), and TransNASBench-101. Building on our study, we present our predictor FLAN: Flow Attention for NAS. FLAN integrates critical insights on predictor design, transfer learning, and unified encodings to enable more than an order of magnitude cost reduction for training NAS accuracy predictors. Our implementation and encodings for all neural networks are open-sourced at https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/flan_nas{https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/flan\_nas}.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

In the last few years thousands of scientific papers have investigated sentiment analysis, several startups that measure opinions on real data have emerged and a number of innovative products related to this theme have been developed. There are multiple methods for measuring sentiments, including lexical-based and supervised machine learning methods. Despite the vast interest on the theme and wide popularity of some methods, it is unclear which one is better for identifying the polarity (i.e., positive or negative) of a message. Accordingly, there is a strong need to conduct a thorough apple-to-apple comparison of sentiment analysis methods, as they are used in practice, across multiple datasets originated from different data sources. Such a comparison is key for understanding the potential limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of popular methods. This article aims at filling this gap by presenting a benchmark comparison of twenty-four popular sentiment analysis methods (which we call the state-of-the-practice methods). Our evaluation is based on a benchmark of eighteen labeled datasets, covering messages posted on social networks, movie and product reviews, as well as opinions and comments in news articles. Our results highlight the extent to which the prediction performance of these methods varies considerably across datasets. Aiming at boosting the development of this research area, we open the methods' codes and datasets used in this article, deploying them in a benchmark system, which provides an open API for accessing and comparing sentence-level sentiment analysis methods.

Item recommendation (the task of predicting if a user may interact with new items from the catalogue in a recommendation system) and link prediction (the task of identifying missing links in a knowledge graph) have long been regarded as distinct problems. In this work, we show that the item recommendation problem can be seen as an instance of the link prediction problem, where entities in the graph represent users and items, and the task consists of predicting missing instances of the relation type <<interactsWith>>. In a preliminary attempt to demonstrate the assumption, we decide to test three popular factorisation-based link prediction models on the item recommendation task, showing that their predictive accuracy is competitive with ten state-of-the-art recommendation models. The purpose is to show how the former may be seamlessly and effectively applied to the recommendation task without any specific modification to their architectures. Finally, while beginning to unveil the key reasons behind the recommendation performance of the selected link prediction models, we explore different settings for their hyper-parameter values, paving the way for future directions.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

Research on neural networks has focused on understanding a single model trained on a single dataset. However, relatively little is known about the relationships between different models, particularly those trained or tested on different datasets. We address this by studying how the weight space and the underlying loss landscape of different models are interconnected. Specifically, we demonstrate that finetuned models that were optimized for high performance, reside in well-defined regions in weight space, and vice versa -- that any model that resides anywhere in those regions also exhibits high performance. Notably, we show that language models that have been finetuned on the same dataset form a tight cluster in the weight space, while models finetuned on different datasets from the same underlying task form a looser cluster. Moreover, traversing around the region between the models leads to new models that perform comparably or even better than models obtained via finetuning, even on tasks that the original models were not finetuned on. Our findings provide insight into the relationships between models, demonstrating that a model positioned between two similar models can acquire the knowledge of both. We leverage this and design a method for selecting a better model for efficient finetuning. Specifically, we show that starting from the center of the region is as effective, if not more, than using the pretrained model in 11 out of 12 datasets, resulting in an average accuracy improvement of 3.06.

Non-stationarity of an underlying data generating process that leads to distributional changes over time is a key characteristic of Data Streams. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as Concept Drift, has been intensively studied, and Concept Drift Detectors have been established as a class of methods for detecting such changes (drifts). For the most part, Drift Detectors compare regions (windows) of the data stream and detect drift if those windows are sufficiently dissimilar. In this work, we introduce the Window Dilemma, an observation that perceived drift is a product of windowing and not necessarily the underlying data generating process. Additionally, we highlight that drift detection is ill-posed, primarily because verification of drift events are implausible in practice. We demonstrate these contributions first by an illustrative example, followed by empirical comparisons of drift detectors against a variety of alternative adaptation strategies. Our main finding is that traditional batch learning techniques often perform better than their drift-aware counterparts further bringing into question the purpose of detectors in Stream Classification.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

Algorithmic fairness has conventionally adopted the mathematically convenient perspective of racial color-blindness (i.e., difference unaware treatment). However, we contend that in a range of important settings, group difference awareness matters. For example, differentiating between groups may be necessary in legal contexts (e.g., the U.S. compulsory draft applies to men but not women) and harm assessments (e.g., referring to girls as ``terrorists'' may be less harmful than referring to Muslim people as such). Thus, in contrast to most fairness work, we study fairness through the perspective of treating people differently -- when it is contextually appropriate to. We first introduce an important distinction between descriptive (fact-based), normative (value-based), and correlation (association-based) benchmarks. This distinction is significant because each category requires separate interpretation and mitigation tailored to its specific characteristics. Then, we present a benchmark suite composed of eight different scenarios for a total of 16k questions that enables us to assess difference awareness. Finally, we show results across ten models that demonstrate difference awareness is a distinct dimension to fairness where existing bias mitigation strategies may backfire.

In recent years, there has been a rapidly expanding focus on explaining the predictions made by black-box AI systems that handle image and tabular data. However, considerably less attention has been paid to explaining the predictions of opaque AI systems handling time series data. In this paper, we advance a novel model-agnostic, case-based technique -- Native Guide -- that generates counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers. Given a query time series, T_{q}, for which a black-box classification system predicts class, c, a counterfactual time series explanation shows how T_{q} could change, such that the system predicts an alternative class, c'. The proposed instance-based technique adapts existing counterfactual instances in the case-base by highlighting and modifying discriminative areas of the time series that underlie the classification. Quantitative and qualitative results from two comparative experiments indicate that Native Guide generates plausible, proximal, sparse and diverse explanations that are better than those produced by key benchmark counterfactual methods.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Commonly used evaluation measures including Recall, Precision, F-Measure and Rand Accuracy are biased and should not be used without clear understanding of the biases, and corresponding identification of chance or base case levels of the statistic. Using these measures a system that performs worse in the objective sense of Informedness, can appear to perform better under any of these commonly used measures. We discuss several concepts and measures that reflect the probability that prediction is informed versus chance. Informedness and introduce Markedness as a dual measure for the probability that prediction is marked versus chance. Finally we demonstrate elegant connections between the concepts of Informedness, Markedness, Correlation and Significance as well as their intuitive relationships with Recall and Precision, and outline the extension from the dichotomous case to the general multi-class case.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Real-world classifiers can benefit from the option of abstaining from predicting on samples where they have low confidence. Such abstention is particularly useful on samples which are close to the learned decision boundary, or which are outliers with respect to the training sample. These settings have been the subject of extensive but disjoint study in the selective classification (SC) and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection literature. Recent work on selective classification with OOD detection (SCOD) has argued for the unified study of these problems; however, the formal underpinnings of this problem are still nascent, and existing techniques are heuristic in nature. In this paper, we propose new plugin estimators for SCOD that are theoretically grounded, effective, and generalise existing approaches from the SC and OOD detection literature. In the course of our analysis, we formally explicate how na\"{i}ve use of existing SC and OOD detection baselines may be inadequate for SCOD. We empirically demonstrate that our approaches yields competitive SC and OOD detection performance compared to baselines from both literatures.

This large scale study focuses on quantifying what X-rays diagnostic prediction tasks generalize well across multiple different datasets. We present evidence that the issue of generalization is not due to a shift in the images but instead a shift in the labels. We study the cross-domain performance, agreement between models, and model representations. We find interesting discrepancies between performance and agreement where models which both achieve good performance disagree in their predictions as well as models which agree yet achieve poor performance. We also test for concept similarity by regularizing a network to group tasks across multiple datasets together and observe variation across the tasks. All code is made available online and data is publicly available: https://github.com/mlmed/torchxrayvision

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous models are reliant on clue phrases to predict counterfactuality, so they suffer from significant performance drop when clue phrase hints do not exist during testing. Moreover, these models tend to predict non-counterfactuals over counterfactuals. To address these issues, we propose to integrate neural topic model into the CFD model to capture the global semantics of the input statement. We continue to causally intervene the hidden representations of the CFD model to balance the effect of the class labels. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms previous state-of-the-art CFD and bias-resolving methods in both the CFD and other bias-sensitive tasks.

Similarity between training examples is used to curate pretraining datasets for language models by many methods -- for diversification and to select examples similar to high-quality data. However, similarity is typically measured with off-the-shelf embedding models that are generic or trained for tasks such as retrieval. This paper introduces a framework to analyze the suitability of embedding models specifically for data curation in the language model pretraining setting. We quantify the correlation between similarity in the embedding space to similarity in pretraining loss between different training examples, and how diversifying in the embedding space affects pretraining quality. We analyze a variety of embedding models in our framework, with experiments using the Pile dataset for pretraining a 1.7B parameter decoder-only language model. We find that the embedding models we consider are all useful for pretraining data curation. Moreover, a simple approach of averaging per-token embeddings proves to be surprisingly competitive with more sophisticated embedding models -- likely because the latter are not designed specifically for pretraining data curation. Indeed, we believe our analysis and evaluation framework can serve as a foundation for the design of embedding models that specifically reason about similarity in pretraining datasets.

Ensuring that large language models (LMs) are fair, robust and useful requires an understanding of how different modifications to their inputs impact the model's behaviour. In the context of open-text generation tasks, however, such an evaluation is not trivial. For example, when introducing a model with an input text and a perturbed, "contrastive" version of it, meaningful differences in the next-token predictions may not be revealed with standard decoding strategies. With this motivation in mind, we propose Contrastive Input Decoding (CID): a decoding algorithm to generate text given two inputs, where the generated text is likely given one input but unlikely given the other. In this way, the contrastive generations can highlight potentially subtle differences in how the LM output differs for the two inputs in a simple and interpretable manner. We use CID to highlight context-specific biases that are hard to detect with standard decoding strategies and quantify the effect of different input perturbations.

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a predictive method in the unsupervised iid (independent identically distributed) setting to a predictive method in the regression setting. In particular, it enables an actuary to obtain infinitely many finite-sample valid prediction intervals in the regression setting.

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, S_P sim P^n and S_Q sim Q^m, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary classifiers. In particular, construct a dataset by pairing the n examples in S_P with a positive label, and by pairing the m examples in S_Q with a negative label. If the null hypothesis "P = Q" is true, then the classification accuracy of a binary classifier on a held-out subset of this dataset should remain near chance-level. As we will show, such Classifier Two-Sample Tests (C2ST) learn a suitable representation of the data on the fly, return test statistics in interpretable units, have a simple null distribution, and their predictive uncertainty allow to interpret where P and Q differ. The goal of this paper is to establish the properties, performance, and uses of C2ST. First, we analyze their main theoretical properties. Second, we compare their performance against a variety of state-of-the-art alternatives. Third, we propose their use to evaluate the sample quality of generative models with intractable likelihoods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Fourth, we showcase the novel application of GANs together with C2ST for causal discovery.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

Probes are the workhorse of interpretability. If a model's hidden states predict a variable, the model is said to represent it. But a probe score has no fixed meaning. An R^2 of 0.6 may only reflect what the input already gives away, and the same score can mean different things on different data. We propose reading every probe score against two reference points: a floor, what a declared set of simple inputs already predicts, and a ceiling, what the full input can predict. The gap between them, the headroom, is the range in which a probe can show that a model computes something beyond the simple inputs. We prove that headroom vanishes in two ways: the target stops depending on a hidden variable the model must infer, or the input stops revealing it. We test this on transformers trained for in-context meta-analysis, which must infer the hidden heterogeneity between studies to weight them correctly, and where both reference points are known. Under distribution shift, probe scores fall and prediction error rises 12--15times, yet the model recovers a similar share of the headroom, indicating that the data lost information, not the representation. We then analyze the real models. The single-cell foundation model scGPT encodes biological variability only partially. We also revisit four influential LLM probing studies, which claim that models represent geography, the state of an Othello board, truth, and the demographics of their users. Against a floor computed from the input text alone, some of these claims hold, while others are largely explained by the text itself.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Removing an input-scaling module changes both a classifier and the perturbations reaching its encoder. A robustness difference can therefore reflect the comparison rule as well as the module. We demonstrate this problem in a four-qubit quantum-attention detector on generated power-grid trajectories. A learned scaling module appears beneficial at a fixed physical attack budget, but matching an upper bound on perturbations at the encoder reverses the ordering. Neither comparison alone establishes a robustness benefit caused by the module. The initial test also perturbs clean examples into attacked examples while retaining their original labels; tests restricted to already attacked examples do not establish a benefit. Replacing a trained model's input scales disrupts detection. Retraining its linear classification layer restores the detection rate, but changes individual predictions, leaving the comparison descriptive rather than causal. Two further design checks explain why the input quantum Fisher information regularizer cannot train this model's query parameters, and why removing confidence bounds does not establish a larger certified radius. The evidence is limited to ten seeds, exact simulation, synthetic data, and a restricted set of attacks; classical baselines achieve better clean prediction. The practical lesson is to specify which perturbation budget is fixed, check that attacks preserve labels and interventions preserve predictions, and distinguish exploratory controls from confirmatory evidence.

Reasoning models represented by the Deepseek-R1-Distill series have been widely adopted by the open-source community due to their strong performance in mathematics, science, programming, and other domains. However, our study reveals that their benchmark evaluation results are subject to significant fluctuations caused by various factors. Subtle differences in evaluation conditions can lead to substantial variations in results. Similar phenomena are observed in other open-source inference models fine-tuned based on the Deepseek-R1-Distill series, as well as in the QwQ-32B model, making their claimed performance improvements difficult to reproduce reliably. Therefore, we advocate for the establishment of a more rigorous paradigm for model performance evaluation and present our empirical assessments of the Deepseek-R1-Distill series models.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Nowadays, real-world applications often face streaming data, which requires the learning system to absorb new knowledge as data evolves. Continual Learning (CL) aims to achieve this goal and meanwhile overcome the catastrophic forgetting of former knowledge when learning new ones. Typical CL methods build the model from scratch to grow with incoming data. However, the advent of the pre-trained model (PTM) era has sparked immense research interest, particularly in leveraging PTMs' robust representational capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the latest advancements in PTM-based CL. We categorize existing methodologies into three distinct groups, providing a comparative analysis of their similarities, differences, and respective advantages and disadvantages. Additionally, we offer an empirical study contrasting various state-of-the-art methods to highlight concerns regarding fairness in comparisons. The source code to reproduce these evaluations is available at: https://github.com/sun-hailong/LAMDA-PILOT

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Recent advances in large language models have led to renewed interest in natural language processing in healthcare using the free text of clinical notes. One distinguishing characteristic of clinical notes is their long time span over multiple long documents. The unique structure of clinical notes creates a new design choice: when the context length for a language model predictor is limited, which part of clinical notes should we choose as the input? Existing studies either choose the inputs with domain knowledge or simply truncate them. We propose a framework to analyze the sections with high predictive power. Using MIMIC-III, we show that: 1) predictive power distribution is different between nursing notes and discharge notes and 2) combining different types of notes could improve performance when the context length is large. Our findings suggest that a carefully selected sampling function could enable more efficient information extraction from clinical notes.

Community-based fact-checking can reduce the spread of annotated misleading posts, but whether it produces lasting behavioral change among corrected authors remains unclear. Here, we conduct a large-scale quasi-experimental study of the Community Notes system on X (formerly Twitter), tracking four weeks of activity before and after note display for 19,854 accounts and 57,935 corrections (noted posts and matched controls), covering 11,909,591 original posts. Difference-in-Differences estimates show that note display is followed by an average 2.9% increase in corrected accounts' original-post activity. This aggregate conceals two divergent trajectories. Accounts corrected only once reduce their activity by 2.4% and subsequently publish less toxic and less misleading content. Repeatedly corrected accounts, which constitute 28.6% of corrected accounts but produce 73.4% of fact-checked posts, instead increase their activity by 4.4% after their first correction and show no detectable response to later ones. They exhibit no comparable content improvement, and instead publish more highly misleading posts, cite lower-quality domains, and post more political content. Community notes can thus constrain individual misleading posts without durably improving the behavior of the accounts most responsible for them, indicating that correcting content and changing its producers are distinct objectives for platform design.